The shadow chancellor Ed Balls could find himself without a seat at the general election, under government plans to reduce the number of MPs. Mr Balls' seat of Morley & Outwood is believed to be vulnerable to being axed by the Boundary Commission for England, one of fifty seats which the coalition government has pledged to remove in time for the next general election.
Westminster journalists have been given a briefing on how the proposed changes would affect MPs across the UK. It seems likely that all seats in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will see alterations, and all but about 20 seats in England will be affected to some degree. The changes will mean the House of Commons will have 600 MPs after the next election - the smallest number of constituencies for nearly 200 years.
A source close to the changes told reporters: "There is every prospect Ed Balls and Hillary Benn will have to fight for one seat". Rumours that the chancellor George Osborne could find himself without a seat were rubbished, although it is clear many Tories in the north of England are at risk, particularly in Yorkshire and the North West of England. The Speaker of the Commons, John Bercow, is also considered to be safe - despite some Westminster gossip which had suggested his Buckingham seat might be scrapped.
Labour seem likely to take the biggest hit once the revised political map of Britain is finalised. They can expect to lose up to 25 seats under the changes. The Tories may lose around 15 and the Lib Dems and Nationalist Parties combined would have 10 fewer than at present. However none of these calculations take into account changes in the parties' popularity between now and the next general election, scheduled for 2015.
One of the biggest areas to lose seats will be the North West of England, where seven MPs will go. Merseyside will lose two seats - one from Liverpool and one on the Wirral. The most likely seat in Liverpool to go will be either Wavertree or West Derby - leading to speculation that two Londoner Labour MPs, Luciana Berger and Stephen Twigg, will have to fight each other to secure the seat which remains.
Reporters were told that the biggest headache for the Boundary Commission was in London, where it was unclear how the reduction of seats would be achieved. Under the law passed by Parliament earlier this year, the new seats can't overlap across two different regions. London is considered a region under the plans, so its seats may not overspill into the Home Counties. It's unclear how the Commission will be able to reduce the number of MPs in London by five, while complying with those rules.
The various Boundary Commissions of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will deliver their initial proposals for the changes in September and October. After these are published there will be a series of hearing around the country, at which it's likely many MPs will be appealing against plans to abolish or substantially change their seats.
The suggestion is the changes will inadvertently lead to fewer marginal seats, something MPs would welcome but which could be difficult for the political parties they belong to. The central offices of the parties might well view more safe seats with concern since it would be harder to force changes in government at election time.
A source close to the process told journalists it could be a 'coalition-buster' towards the end of this Parliament, since it might prove tricky to persuade MPs to vote for the final Bill to enact the changes, if some of those MPs knew doing so would trigger the end of their political careers.