What's Taken The West So Long To Call For Syrian President To Leave?

Syria

Huffington Post UK   Dina Rickman First Posted: 18/08/11 17:52 BST Updated: 18/10/11 11:12 BST

Syria is coming under increasing international pressure after European leaders and US President Barack Obama issued a statement calling for president Bashar al-Assad to step down.

But after weeks of a heavily reported brutal crackdown that has doubtless killed hundreds of protesters, many are asking why the statements from Western nations only came now.

Protests which began five months ago have seen Syrian forces carry out violent suppression of demonstrators, leaving 1,800 civilians dead according to human rights groups.

Rosemary Hollis, a professor of Middle East policy studies at City University, London says it is not a surprise it has taken countries so long to publicly call for Assad to go after the war in Libya.

“They were not going to be in a hurry with Syria or indeed with Yemen. The reactions you're getting today come within the context of what's happened this year. Libya was the turning point - just siding with the rebels doesn't do the job.”

Hollis says there is no “neat divide” between president Assad’s regime and everyone else in Syria, and the potential of an even more despotic ruler replacing him was one reason why the West was quiet for so long.

“If Syrian society is not united either behind him or against him, how do you identify an alternative?" she said.

“The situation in Syria as well as in Yemen is not as straightforward as it was in Egypt, Tunisia and even Libya. Because a lot of the population in Syria have continued to support Assad for fear of the alternatives.”

“Instead there's three or four segments to the division in Syria. It's not the regime and everybody else. There is a real genuine fear that there could be sectarian fighting.

"It's exactly like Iraq in the sense that Syrians keep saying 'we're all secular, there's no particular divides' and then when the regime crumbles it also emerges that the population divides along particular lines, Shia versus Sunni, Christians etcetra.”

Ziya Meral, a research associate at the Foreign Policy Centre agrees saying the potential for sectarian conflict meant “everyone was afraid that what might replace the regime would be worse”. But he says now violence has reached an “unbearable” level and patience has run out”.

The UN have said Syria’s crimes against its citizens "may amount to crimes against humanity".

For Hollis, Western leaders have spoken out not because they think they have the moral highground but because they think Assad can no longer "handle the situation" in Syria.

“The moral highground came into view briefly when you saw armoured vehicles pounding down the road in Libya towards Behnghazi [and the West intervened to prevent a massacre] ... that was only a moment in many months of complex developments. To identify the correct moral position at any one time isn't easy.”

She added: “Essentially, their reading of the situation is he can't handle the situation so he's not going to be able to correct the problem and his behaviour is such that they cannot with a straight face go on without condemning it totally.”

For Meral, the countries’ public declaration against Assad is a “positive action” but it will only be meaningful if it is followed by sanctions.

He says, however, that whilst some Arab states have condemned Syria massacring its own people, its regional ally Iran is unlikely to follow their lead.

“If Iran comes up condemning Syria than that would be the most shocking. It's not going to happen, Iran needs Syria to expand its influence across the region, by having influence in Lebanon and Syria Iran is able to threaten a lot of countries."

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Syria is coming under increasing international pressure after European leaders and US President Barack Obama issued a statement calling for president Bashar al-Assad to step down. But after weeks o...
Syria is coming under increasing international pressure after European leaders and US President Barack Obama issued a statement calling for president Bashar al-Assad to step down. But after weeks o...
 
 
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01:07 AM on 08/20/2011
Thanks to the author. That's a brief explanation, but it's a more detailed and informative explanation than one typically finds regarding Syria.

We may find two years from now that absolutely everyone - Assad, the Syrian people, Syria's neighbors, the West - everyone would have been better served if Assad had responded to pressure from inside and out, and embraced reforms.

It was certainly with a shot, even as a long-shot.
07:32 PM on 08/19/2011
What's taken the West so long to ask Obama to leave? He's responsible for hundreds of times more deaths than Assad.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
The Green Knight
05:24 AM on 08/19/2011
You know, why does the United States always have to be the world's police? Isn't this something that Germany, East Europe, or France should be saying instead of the United States? I'm soooooo sick of US policing all these other world miscreants!!!!!
08:06 PM on 08/19/2011
Where did you read in this article that only the US is calling for Assad to go?
In fact, the article says "after European leaders and the US President Barack Obama issued a statement calling for president Bashar al-Assad to step down". If you click on that statement, the heading of the more detailed article is "Obama, Cameron, Merkel And Sarkozy Call On Syria's Assad To Step Down"
12:36 AM on 08/19/2011
More than 20 years ago the political class supported the freedom-seeking people of Eastern Europe - without conditions. Today the freedom-seeking societies in some Arab countries are regarded with some hesitation and doubts although their motives are exactly the same: getting rid of their suppressing regimes.

Could be the conclusion that at least two types of freedom exist?
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Yank in France
Rien se cree tout se transforme
05:34 PM on 08/19/2011
No, it is not a matter of two types of freedom but simply of two very, very different situations!

If you were a Christian in Syria (between 800,000 and 1 million), you might be highly worried at the prospect of radical Sunnis coming to power. But that is just one group in Syria. As a number of people quoted in the article noted, the regime's reversal does not necessariy translate into a democratic state. Far from it!
01:16 AM on 08/20/2011
Not at all. And I do not think there are any serious minded people who equate the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw bloc regimes with the uprisings in north Africa and the Middle East.

20 years ago, central and Eastern European aspirations were for secular parliamentary or republican democracies, modeled quite closely upon the existing European democracies. And there were fanciful hopes of disarmament, and cultural and economic integration into the larger European community.

With the exception of the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia and the Balkan Wars, the collapse of European communist regimes was shockingly peaceful.

That's not what you are watching in Syria or Yemen. For that matter, that's not what you're watching in Egypt or Libya. There are factions everywhere who seek to rid themselves of the existing regime simply in hopes that they will become the Next New Even More Repressive Regime In Charge.
01:53 AM on 08/20/2011
I can tell you so shockingly peaceful it wasn't. You forgot that the Romanians fought a short but bloody struggle before they got rid of Ceaucescu. And after the euphoria of the reunification it came out that our East German fellows had really luck - the order to shoot at the Monday Demonstration protesters in Leipzig and other cities was nearly given.

Mentioning a common more repressive regime: when I look today at Hungary, the bright star of the 1989 movement I see a country strangulated by totalitarian Nationalists who swept off freedom of speech and silenced all critical voices, especially journalists.

Instead of worrying too much we should take the chance and encourage those who engage themselves now for democracy, pluralism and freedom. The same we would appreciate in their situation.
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wom122
Primum non nocere
12:09 AM on 08/19/2011
Thank you for a thoughtful analysis.