Debt Crisis: As Growth Slumps, Should Britain Borrow More?

Treasury

Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 5/10/2011 15:17 Updated: 5/12/2011 09:12

David Cameron may have made a dramatic U-turn and changed his conference speech to remove a call for households to pay off their personal debt, but his government has stuck to its guns on its austerity plans and on its desire to trim the national debt from its current £950 billion in the short term.

However, some economists are suggesting that, in the face of weaker growth figures and a surprisingly conducive lending environment, that the treasury should hold off on austerity.

The markets currently see gilts as a safe haven from the crisis in the eurozone, despite the evident slowdown in growth in the UK. Yields on British debt are approaching record lows, meaning that the price of borrowing is low.

Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is saying that, should the country start to miss its growth targets, it should reconsider its austerity and debt reduction strategy and take advantage of reduced borrowing costs in order to stimulate the economy.

“If activity were to undershoot current expectations and risk a period of stagnation or contraction, countries that face historically low yields (for example, Germany and the United Kingdom) should also consider delaying some of their planned consolidation,” the IMF’s October regional outlook for Europe said.

UK growth figures again disappointed, with the Office of National Statistics saying on Wednesday morning that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by just 0.1 per cent, with manufacturing output rising 0.2 per cent. Overall output from the production industries fell 1.2 per cent.

In this environment, finding additional money to stimulate growth could be an attractive option, even if it means putting deficit reduction on ice.

“It depends on what you do with the money,” Strategy Economics’ Matthew Lynn said. “You can’t really argue - and Osborne tends to argue this, he’s kind of stuck in a groove - that if we don’t get the deficit under control then we’ll turn into the next Greece, or the next Italy. That’s incompatible with the facts.”

The bond markets have punished both Greece and Italy for their spiralling deficits and failure to deliver meaningful growth plans, with yields on both countries’ debt growing - in Greece’s case to unsustainable levels. The UK has not suffered from the same problem.

On Monday, Standard and Poor’s, the rating agency, reaffirmed the UK’s AAA sovereign rating, having downgraded Italy in September. Fitch Ratings also dropped Italy’s issuance by two notches on Tuesday night.

Lynn believes that the most efficient use of any money raised would be tax cuts.

“We have an uncompetitive tax system,” he said. “We have some of the highest taxes in the world, our corporate taxes are still very uncompetitive, and the UK has always flourished as a relatively low tax economy ... We need to get more inward investment, and we need to stimulate entrepreneurs, and they respond to tax cuts.”

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David Cameron may have made a dramatic U-turn and changed his conference speech to remove a call for households to pay off their personal debt, but his government has stuck to its guns on its austerit...
David Cameron may have made a dramatic U-turn and changed his conference speech to remove a call for households to pay off their personal debt, but his government has stuck to its guns on its austerit...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Janet Logan
Brit, Left-to-Moderate, compassionate, pragmatic
08:44 PM on 10/06/2011
If this government has had any success it is the area of talking down the economy and scaring the crap out of people to justify hard, fast cuts.

Well, Dave and Gideon, they believe you now and they're conserving cash for that rainy day you were prophesying. How dya like it?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JoanMeijer
Author of Relentless: The Search For Typhoid Mary
06:22 PM on 10/06/2011
There are no arguments for austerity unless you are a stupid Republican. Britain is dying because of austerity - America is dying because of lack of stimulus. CHOOSE.
05:18 PM on 10/06/2011
The era of growth and prosperity that swept the Western World through the 1950's and 1960's took place when taxes are much higher than they are now. If there is a correlation between low taxation of income at top end and high economic growth at any time in last fifty years then lets have the data.

Why is it never offered? Because it does not exist. Instead we get this nonsense from Matthew Lynn:

“We have an uncompetitive tax system,” he said. “We have some of the highest taxes in the world, our corporate taxes are still very uncompetitive, and the UK has always flourished as a relatively low tax economy ... We need to get more inward investment, and we need to stimulate entrepreneurs, and they respond to tax cuts.”
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Are we to be coerced, even blackmailed into lowering taxes upon the wealthy so that dirty millions can flow in from oligarchs and sweat-shop entrepreneurs?

That appears to be what Matthew Lynn wants.
10:40 PM on 10/06/2011
Actually, we have the second highest corporate taxes in the world. Second only to Japan.

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GX/global/services/tax/8dd894e1f382e210VgnVCM1000001a56f00aRCRD.htm

Click on "Download Corporate Tax Rates 2011"
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European1919
I am the PigmⒶn
06:02 AM on 10/06/2011
It is true: the Keynesian paradox of thrift does indeed apply and it does exacerbate the financial situation of the nation. Otoh, on a personal level, what point is there in Joe Bloggs doing his bit for Britain by not paying off his (cc) debt while he can and instead facing legal consequences of not doing so when he loses his job.
Get real Mr. Cameron ... it is not for the people to endanger their own already precarious financial situation to help you pull the cart out of the mire that you and the bankers have driven it into. In the end everyone must always look after number one, and that is themselves and their families.
09:28 PM on 10/05/2011
The sheer brilliance of that idea is staggering!!!

Well, it is if You profit from the ruin of the people. Because without even ONE exception that was the result of every single incident where that was tried.

Oh, and no, that does not mean wwe have to cut government. Geovernment is a representative of the people if not traitors make it up. The vaccuum left by small government has - again without exception - been filled by corporations making up "laws" - we call them contracts - that will be even worse than borrowing the money they stole from us.

And THERE is the solution: take back what they stole. There are loads of money. All we havfe to do is take them. They are ours. A thief has no right to what he stole.
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elisabethclive
To the left of Left.
09:27 PM on 10/05/2011
Cameron = Idiot
09:00 PM on 10/05/2011
Part of the problem is that Osbourne and Cameron are trapped by their own political cowardice.

If they were to cut a tax, which one? Cut the VAT and alienate their backers in the city for not cutting the 50p and/or corporation tax? Or cut those taxes and alienate everyone else.

They only care about winning the next election, they don't give a damn about the country.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lawyer13
retired Lawyer, General and Psychiatric Nurse, wit
08:05 PM on 10/05/2011
No No No, we have tried this before and look at the mess we are in now, we need something to stimulate the economy, and in my view a tempoary reduction to VAT for six months would help with spending and hence growth in the economy.
11:39 PM on 10/05/2011
Reducing vat will not help , people do not have the money in their hand to spend, what is needed is to reduce taxes , personnel and corporate , no one i know will not buy something because of the vat rate and a 2.5% reduction means bugger all to most of us.
05:36 PM on 10/05/2011
Now, there's a great idea, that wasn't tried these last few decades with the result with see today.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
elisabethclive
To the left of Left.
09:28 PM on 10/05/2011
LOLZZZZZ
09:34 PM on 10/05/2011
well raising it hasn't had the desired effect, most people have stopped spending so Osbourne's master plan is probably recouping a lot less than during the same period last year when VAT was at 17%, personally, I've stopped using the car for all but essentials and have bought absolutely nothing since the increase in January, I'm pig sick of being used as a cash cow for an imbecilic government.