Eurozone Crisis: Euro Deal On The Brink As Greek Cabinet Agrees To Papandreou's Gamble

Papandreou

Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 02/11/11 10:59 GMT Updated: 02/11/11 10:59 GMT

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a difficult conversation with his French and German counterparts in Cannes on Wednesday after his cabinet approved a decision to hold a referendum on the €130bn (£112bn) bailout package for the country agreed less than a week ago.

Papandreou's announcement shocked global markets, which had rallied on the hopes that a deal had finally been done to mark the beginning of the end of the eurozone's sovereign debt issues.

With many Greeks angry that a deal was being imposed on them by external parties, putting the acceptance of the bailout deal to a public vote is a huge gamble for the prime minister. However, it offers him the chance to add a veneer of domestic legitimacy to an otherwise entirely international deal. Other analysts have suggested that the Greek government is making a play to get better terms for its bailout deal, effectively holding the eurozone to ransom.

According to a statement issued by Papandreou's office, the prime minister told Tuesday's emergency cabinet meeting: "The referendum will be a clear mandate and a clear message in and outside Greece on our European course and participation in the euro."

Political analysts said that among the most pressing concerns is just what the €130bn question will be. With so much at stake - including Greece's membership of the single currency area - the phrasing of the referendum motion will be critical.

To leave the euro would potentially be even more damaging than the austerity option, with a depreciating drachma and hyperinflation creating almost inevitably resulting. Polls show that a majority of the Greek people would prefer to stay within the eurozone.

However, many in Greece are also opposed to the strict terms of the bailout package and to external intervention.

"These positions are clearly incompatible," Matthew Lynn at Strategy Economics said.

"Moreover, the record of referenda on EU issues suggests that the outcome is usually ‘no’. The Irish rejected the Lisbon Treaty in a vote in 2008. The French voted against the proposed EU constitution in 2005. The key issue will be how the debate progresses.

"If the debate turns on fear, with constant threats of catastrophe if Greece says ‘no’, and if those threats are credible, then the chances of a yes vote will increase. The trouble is, if those threats come from abroad, and particularly from Germany, then they will simply stoke opposition to the euro."

The referendum is due to take place as soon as the details of the bailout are finalised - an uncertain deadline in itself - though Papandreou first has to pass a confidence vote on Friday.

"The most market friendly scenario is perhaps that the current government lose the vote on Friday and the pro-European opposition New Democracy Party win a pre-Christmas election and have a clear mandate to press on with whatever austerity the Europeans impose on them in their latest bail-out package," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid wrote on Wednesday morning.

"The feeling is that while they might try to renegotiate parts of any EU package, it may only be over details rather than the essence of the deal. A referendum will also be avoided. The least market friendly outcome is a government win on Friday, many weeks of uncertainty over the referendum and then a 'no' vote. This would leave Europe's latest bail-out package in disarray and will likely increase the tail risk of an imminent Greek euro exit or a disorderly default."

The fallout from the announcement could be severe.

A key part of the eurozone's total bailout package included funding from other international governments, including the cash-rich emerging economies of China and Brazil. Eurozone officials were hoping to secure some tentative agreements at the upcoming G20 meeting in Cannes. There was only a remote chance of a meaningful commitment, but that chance is now even more remote.

"George Papandreou's surprise announcement to call a referendum on Greece's new bailout greatly reduced whatever chances were still present for G20 member states to commit funds to the eurozone," Eurasia analyst Courtney Rickett McCaffrey said.

"China and other BRIC countries have always made clear that any commitment of external funding toward the eurozone would be predicated first and foremost on a credible plan from eurozone leaders to tackle their crisis."

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Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a difficult conversation with his French and German counterparts in Cannes on Wednesday after his cabinet approved a decision to hold a referendum on the â...
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a difficult conversation with his French and German counterparts in Cannes on Wednesday after his cabinet approved a decision to hold a referendum on the â...
 
 
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European1919
I am the Pigmâ’¶n
09:24 AM on 11/03/2011
The Greeks are probably making the right decision for two reasons:
1. as inventors of democracy, putting a decision like this to the people is the only correct thing to do. Other European countries should take a leaf out of the Greeks' book.
2. the European countries ara again only interested in saving the bacon of the banksters. If they had an interest in supporting the ailing Greek economy, they would not try to force Greece onto a privatisation spree, which in the present economic climate can only result in more redundancies, ie. more people and their families not paying taxes and instead receiving benefits out of the already depleted government funds.
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Merseysidefella
I read the news today oh, boy
12:07 AM on 11/03/2011
The Greece cabinet is discussing and evaluating the Herman Cain 9-9-9 plan, so they cannot go back to the EU meeting without having studied Mr. Cain´s plan, in depth, first
10:21 PM on 11/02/2011
Greece needs to be sent to the corner for a time out.
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philhellene
Far Left and Proud of It!
09:02 PM on 11/02/2011
It's a bargaining ploy for better terms.
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07:48 PM on 11/02/2011
I was under the impression that they were going to be out of money end of this month. So what happens until the vote? Can somebody help me out here?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AceNewsServices
Changing The World One Step At A Time
06:25 PM on 11/02/2011
It appears that Papandreou`s may have a hidden agenda and this may be his way of sweetening the pot and getting an even better deal for himself over his debt, as the Eurozone may have to increase the discounting to a higher amount. What do you think?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/02/greece-referendum-bluff/?iid=HP_Highlight
07:51 PM on 11/02/2011
Not a chance.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AceNewsServices
Changing The World One Step At A Time
06:12 PM on 11/02/2011
This would seem simple in the main. Firstly Papandreou's wants his people to agree that he is doing the right thing by agreeing with the 17 and as we all know most of his people will vote NO as it will mean cuts to their standard of living for years to come. Secondly by proceeding with the agreement made with the 17 he has to provide the same cuts to his peoples standard of living - possibly for more years to come. So either way as it stands he will end up doing the wrong thing.

But there maybe a third as nobody knows what would happen if Greece ends up out of the Eurozone, of course we can all provide answers based on what we already know from the past, but as many economists now admit these are unusual times when this has never happened before ,so based on that thought alone how can we be certain of the outcome.
02:48 PM on 11/02/2011
If Papandreou loses the referendum Greece will walk itself out of the Eurozone. That's not a good outcome for anyone, especially not for the Greeks. But they can have their tizzy fit if they want to. They'll be left to seek credit from countries/banks who know better than to trust them now.
07:50 PM on 11/02/2011
That's the best outcome.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Lawyer13
retired Lawyer, General and Psychiatric Nurse, wit
10:53 AM on 11/02/2011
I think that Greece will bring down the Euro and cause great problem for all of us, even if there is no referendum, there may well be a change by way of new Elections, which will have the same effect as if the referendum had taken place.