IAEA Report: Is Israel's Sabre-Rattling Towards Iran A Diplomatic Tactic?

Israel

First Posted: 08/11/11 18:31 GMT Updated: 09/11/11 08:24 GMT

The publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report detailing Iran's efforts to build a nuclear weapon could have profound implications for the Middle East and beyond.

On Tuesday, it was reported that Iran had carried out tests specific to "the development of a nuclear device", according to the UN's atomic watchdog.

The document, handed over to the 35-member states of the IAEA Board of Governors on Tuesday, highlights a damning list of tests and a build up of technology and materials the application of which, according to the report, can only be for the development of a "nuclear explosive"

Read the IAEA report in full here.

According to the document, the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons programme, which publically ended in 2003 following international diplomatic pressure, continued with the state making efforts to "procure nuclear related and dual use equipment", acquire "nuclear weapons development information" and "work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components."

The report states that "some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing."

In recent weeks, Israeli politicians have become increasingly strident in their public pronouncements on their regional neighbour, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling a nuclear Iran “a grave threat to the Middle East and the entire world, and of course it is a direct and grave threat on us."

Ehud Barak struck a similar tone, saying: "a situation could be created in the Middle East in which Israel must defend its vital interests in an independent fashion, without necessarily having to reply on other forces, regional or otherwise.”

Even the traditionally non-belligerent President, Shimon Peres, recently said that military action is "closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic action”, indicating that Israel may be genuinely considering a pre-emptive or preventative strike against the Iranian facilities.

However, opinion remains divided as to Israel’s next course of action.

“Israel is probably sabre rattling as they want to shape the context in which this report is received,” Wyn Bowen, a Professor of Non-Proliferation & International Security at King’s College London, told The Huffington Post UK.

“The US and Israeli goal is likely to be more economic and diplomatic pressure. The report provides more evidence that Iran’s [nuclear] programme has military intent, so the Israelis are laying the ground for any [UN] Security Council discussion in which the emphasis will be on convincing the Chinese and the Russians to buy into more sanctions, but that will be difficult particularly given China's energy ties to Iran.”

The way to gain an international consensus for stiffer penalties is for the Israelis to remind everyone that “there’s always the big stick in the background,” he adds.

However, Abraham Wagner, a professor at Columbia University’s School of International & Public Affairs and an expert in nuclear proliferation, believes there’s more to the Israeli threats than just political or diplomatic manoeuvrings.

“Most recently the public statements in Israel by the former Mossad chief [Meir] Dagan and the former Shin Bet chief [Yuval] Diskin have ignited a debate in the Israeli press,” he tells The Huffington Post UK.

In May, Dagan said that a military strike against Iran would be “stupid”, adding that any strike against the programme would be “an illegal act according to international law.”

Both Diskin and Dagan are currently being investigated for allegedly leaking information about a proposed Israeli strike on Iran.

“Such a strike would not eliminate the program entirely, and might serve to provoke a war,” says Wagner. “This is the substance of Dagan's argument but clearly others in the Israeli Government now think otherwise.”

There is also the question of US involvement. Afghanistan and Iraq have all but quelled American appetite for foreign intervention, with the US role in Libya, although significant, played from the sidelines.

Next year’s election is also likely to halt any American military involvement. As Bowen says, “does Obama want to get stuck into Iran mid-way through a campaign?”

Israel could go it alone. “I would not rule that out,” says Wagner “but I think it highly unlikely that the US would provide any military or intelligence support. They have repeatedly told the Israelis not to undertake such a strike… Netanyahu may want to do this,” he says, adding that the domestic and international pressures not to strike look likely to prevail.

So the most likely outcome appears to be a stalemate, with perhaps more diplomacy and possibly stiffer UN sanctions.

“It is clear that further sanctions will not be effective without support from Russia and China,” says Wagner. Here Russia will provide the support, and the Chinese will not, despite repeated assurances that they would do so. The critical actor as far as sanctions go is the Chinese and this remains the problem.”

"There may be some lip service paid to tougher sanctions,” says Bowen, “adding names of certain people to travel ban lists or barring trading with certain entities, but to do anything more significant with Iran you’d have to start looking at their oil and gas sectors, and China is just not going to be interested.”

Read Professor Wagner's Huffington Post Blog On Iran here.

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The publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report detailing Iran's efforts to build a nuclear weapon could have profound implications for the Middle East and beyond. On Tues...
The publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report detailing Iran's efforts to build a nuclear weapon could have profound implications for the Middle East and beyond. On Tues...
 
 
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01:27 PM on 11/09/2011
So far no real facts from the report, does this lead to attack? or will sanctions work, that is if China and Russia go along with it. Both countries seem to do their own thing, not listening to the west (America). maybe change is in the air, and America/ Israel will be seeing a difference in politics and attitudes, which possibly could be good thing. Iran, yes hates Israel as do many other countries, but are they willing to create war over this, The Iranians are far from being stupid, Israel must think twice, although It is doubtful if they will.
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JacksonJones
Absit iniuria verbis!
07:55 PM on 11/15/2011
Oh, I think that they've thought more than twice already.
12:52 PM on 11/09/2011
beating thw war drums, we want war we want war, i see a way out of recession for arms copmanies
10:39 AM on 11/09/2011
So...what actions were taken against Pakistan and India when each developed nuclear weapons?

What actions have been taken against Israel, for developing and maintaining nuclear weapons in defiance of international laws on monitoring?

Amadinejad may be unpleasant in many ways, but to automatically define Iran as "the enemy" and to offer threats which we wouldn't dream of making against Pakistan (a more volatile Muslim nation) or against Israel (a much more warlike nation, which has invaded its neighbours on numerous occasions and which continues illegal occupations in defiance of international law) is inequitable and risks peace more than does Ahmadinejan's posturing.
03:17 PM on 11/10/2011
The simple fact of the matter is that Iran continuously and openly threatens Israel and the West and the idea of mutual assured destruction does not apply to a country that operates with a martyr ideology. Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, attack Israel on a nearly daily basis. A nuclear armed state sponsor of terrorism is a frightening prospect. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, that would prevent Iran's proxies from attempting to use a nuke against the Jewish state. Israel has never invaded its neighbors, only pushed its attackers back while fighting defensive wars
04:09 PM on 11/10/2011
I agree that Hezbollah and Hamas constantly attack Israel. Perhaps if Israel stopped their illegal occupation of neighbouring countries' lands then any justification for such attacks would disappear and some progress could be made towards peace in the area..
The idea that Israel "has never invaded its neighbours, only pushing its attackers back while fighting defensive wars" is laughably untrue. The willingness of Israel's supporters to reinvent history is breathtaking.
10:18 AM on 11/09/2011
Research is now sufficient reason for a military attack?
03:47 PM on 11/09/2011
Why not?

A "sexed up" dossier on non existent WMD's was good enough in the not too distant past.
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08:39 AM on 11/09/2011
I hear war drums. Who needs a new stealth bomber order?
11:49 PM on 11/08/2011
In 1956, Israel invaded Egypt along with Britain and France. This was in addition to intermittent but continuous cross border raids into the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Egyptian-held Gaza over the decades to come.
In 1967, Israel invaded Egypt, Syria, and Jordan and occupied their territories and all of the remaining lands of Palestine.
In 1973, Egypt and Syria invaded their own territories (Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights), which Israel had earlier occupied, in an attempt to reclaim them but failed. They did not invade Israel itself.
In 1978, in 1982, and in 2006, Israel invaded Lebanon killing tens of thousands of people.
In 2008-2009, Israel invaded Gaza.
These are the undeniable facts that the international community and historians and the actual documentary record proves. As such, Israel was never invaded by its neighbours, except in 1948 - which was an attempt to stop Israel's invasion of Palestinian territory and the expulsion of Palestinians.

That Israel won the majority of these wars cannot change the facts that it initiated them and that it has been the aggressor on its neighbours since even before its establishment in 1947. Indeed, Israel would launch raids on Iraq in 1981 and on Tunisia in 1985, neither of which was an immediate neighbour and without the slightest military provocation from either.
03:57 PM on 11/10/2011
In 1956 Egypt closed the Sinai to Israel in an effort to strangle it's economy. This was causus belli. When The sinai and the straits of tiran were reopened to Israel, they withdrew.
In 1967 Israel faced an invasion by Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. All three countries were massing troops along Israel's border. Again, causus belli, and in order to avoid war and massive civilian casualties in their 9 mile wide country, Israel made sure the battles took place in a buffer zone.
In 1973, after refusing to accept their defeats, the Arab armies rejected Israel's terms of peace for land and launched a surprise attack against the Israelis. The IDF again defeated the aggression of the Arab armies. This time they accepted the victors terms and Israel traded land for peace.
In 1978, 1982, and 2006, Israel responded to attacks upon it's civilian population in Israel proper.
In 2008-2009 Israel again had to respond to rocket attacks against it's civillian populations
In 1948 Israel fought a defensive war against a genocidal Arab force that wished to exterminate the Jews and push them into the sea. Abdul Rahman Azzam, the Arab League's first secretary-general, claimed the 1948 war would be "a war of extermination and momentous massacre which will be spoken of like the Mongolian massacre and the Crusades."
03:57 PM on 11/10/2011
I'm unfamiliar with Tunisia, but the raid on Iraq was to destroy Saddam's admitted nuclear ambitions. Saddam's animosity toward the Jewish state was no secret and his launching of Scuds into Israel in an attempt to provoke them into war was a demonstration of the Arab norm, not the exception. Israel is not 100% innocent, there's no denying that, but there's no denying that the Arabs have been the aggressor in every single major Israeli-Arab conflict. Your revisionist version of history is not helpful.
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05:45 PM on 11/10/2011
The opinion of former IDF soldiers who have served in the Occupied Territories (OT). It is an occupation. http://www.breakingthesilence.org.il/
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