UK Economy: Osborne Shifts Strategy To Promote Growth

Osborne To Rethink Plan A On Back Of Weak Growth

With the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) likely to show on Tuesday that the UK's weak growth has thrown the government's deficit reduction strategy off course, George Osborne is to modify "Plan A".

The OBR's original projections included an assumption that the UK would return to strong growth far more rapidly than it really has. With forecasts from the Bank of England now saying that the recovery will be flat through 2012, those projections are now widely seen as unrealistic. Tuesday's report is expected to reveal just how far off track austerity is and to increase the pressure on the government to try to balance austerity with measures aimed at promoting growth.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) added to the bad news on Monday, cutting its global growth forecast and saying that the eurozone and UK were heading towards a new recession.

While it has been easy for the opposition and union groups to call for investment in growth, achieving it in the context of a eurozone that is still teetering on the brink of collapse, slowing growth in emerging markets and credit markets that have been quick to attack heavily indebted sovereigns, is far from simple.

The UK's debt stock is higher than many in mainland Europe. Its stated commitment to austerity is the main reason that rating agencies and the markets have to date maintained their view that the country is still a safe haven, and yields on gilts have remained low. Slippage would open the country up to speculative attack and a downgrade - although that would clearly depend on how wide of the mark the deficit reduction turns out to be. Adding to the debt would not reinforce the view that the country was dedicated to trimming its deficit, but failing to deal with the growth gap, equally, would undermine confidence.

Vicky Pryce, senior managing director at FTI Consulting and former joint head of the Government Economic Service, said that with the continuing political deadlock in Europe shaking confidence in even German bonds, the government has room to move on growth without being punished by the markets.

"They have a nice window of opportunity at the moment. Where because of where the other countries are because of their debt problems and with no serious and clear way out - they can vote austerity measures through but they have no way of actually implementing them - and with contagion spreading to other places, the UK can actually borrow long term very cheaply and do something about pushing growth and getting back to its path of reducing the deficit," Pryce said.

The key will be convincing the markets that what is done with the cash will really promote growth. Infrastructure, housing and direct financial assistance to small businesses all have a direct effect on employment and growth, Pryce said before the weekend.

Through a series of announcements made ahead of Tuesday's autumn statement, the government has indicated that the chancellor is finally working on the same lines, launching two long-awaited initiatives to unlock private investment in infrastructure and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

£30bn - £5bn of which will come from further spending cuts and revenue raising exercises - is earmarked for investment in 40 infrastructure projects, including linking the A6 to the M25, electrifying the Transpennine Express and extending the Northern Line in London. The government hopes that it can attract investment from pension funds into the scheme, who may be attracted by the long-term, predictable returns that come from infrastructure.

The Treasury is also releasing £20bn in loan guarantees for banks to lend to SMEs in a bid to restart growth. A further £20bn could be made available, Osborne said on Sunday.

These follow on from separate announcements last week on affordable housing schemes and a £1bn "youth contract" aimed at tackling the country's youth unemployment problem.

"The deep-seated structural weaknesses of the highly indebted UK economy, combined with the global fallout from the next phase of the financial crisis, mean that it is almost inevitable that George Osborne will fail to meet his stated fiscal objectives, however much the targets are revised," Neil Prothero, economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit said on Monday.

"The flurry of leaked 'growth-boosting' policy plans ahead of the Autumn Statement indicate how badly off course the government's economic programme is, and how bleak the OBR's revised projections are likely to be. Proposals for credit easing and greater private-sector participation in capital investment projects are sensible - and should have been announced a year ago - but offer no obvious short-term boost to activity. Another UK recession is probably unavoidable in the coming months, even assuming a benign outcome in the euro zone, which seems ever more unlikely."

"Credit easing" has been on the cards since the chancellor's speech at the Tory party conference in October, and aims to break the resistance among high street banks to lending to smaller business.

Since coming under pressure for the large volumes of bad debt on their books and their inadequate capital buffers, many banks have cut back lending to all but the biggest businesses. By carrying a proportion of the risk of lending to SMEs - which are a major source of employment - the government should relax some of the financial pressure on the sector.

However, many analysts have noted that finance is only part of the problem. Many large enterprises are already holding cash and not expanding, leaving the SMEs in their supply chains struggling for business. Retail sales are weak, and confidence in the economy is low. Simply offering more credit will not improve sentiment in light of the many concerns around the European and global economy, and in domestic growth.

Some economists have said that the UK's economy is structurally unsound, with the majority of the last decade's growth driven by unsustainable government spending and dangerously cheap consumer credit.

Stimulating the house building and property markets means taking measures to free up consumer credit, and adding to the government's debt to pay for more leverage in the corporate sector seems to fly in the face of measures to rebalance the economy.

"In the short term you have to forget about rebalancing the economy," Pryce said. "You have to get the economy moving… Perversely, you need to get the financial sector to increase its share of the economy while you're doing this, rather than shrink it. But if it's done properly you get the manufacturing sector continuing to expand."

"It's a mix of leveraging and increasing demand… whether it's for housing or labour, and it's a question of confidence," she added. "If the talk is all about austerity and cuts, and increasing costs for whatever reason, what you really need to do is convince people that you are behind achieving this growth."

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