UK Economy: Inflation Falls After Supermarket Price Wars

Tesco

Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 13/12/11 10:45 GMT Updated: 13/12/11 11:22 GMT

Inflation in the UK has fallen to 4.8% in November, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has reported.

High fuel prices drove consumer price inflation (CPI) to a three-year high of 5.2% in September. Heavy discounting at supermarkets, as well as a slight moderation in the price of petrol, pulled the figure down in October and November. Slight easing in wholesale food prices has also helped to reduce the rate, although rising utility bills kept up their upward pressure.

Inflation remains well above the Bank of England's (BoE) target rate of 2%, but as the economic slowdown bites deeper, and fuel price slip, there is a widespread expectation that the rate will fall rapidly over the next 12 months.

"In contrast to most other indicators for the UK economy, at least consumer price inflation developments are becoming more favourable," Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight said.

"Moderating inflation is desperately needed to ease the squeeze on consumer’s purchasing power and provide some much-needed help to the struggling economy.

However Labour is claiming that Britain now has the highest rate of inflation in Europe. Owen Smith MP, Labour's Shadow Treasury Minister, said: "A temporary cut in VAT, part of Labour’s five point plan for jobs, would ease the squeeze on families, boost our struggling high streets and help to kick-start our flatlining economy. It would cut petrol prices by 3p a litre and give a couple with children an average boost of £450 a year."

TUC leader Brendan Barber welcomed the fall in the cost of living, but warned wage freezes meant it wouldn't make much difference to people's lives. "“It will take many more months of falling inflation, and far higher wage increases, before this long and painful period of real terms pay cuts comes to an end," he said.

Evidence that the inflation rate is decreasing would give the BoE more space to move ahead with more "quantitative easing" - money printing to stimulate economic growth - which, while it frees up capital for lending to businesses and individuals, also has an inflationary effect.

"With consumer price inflation finally heading downwards and looking set to fall particularly sharply during the first half of 2012, it will become less awkward credibility wise for the Bank of England to undertake further stimulative action to boost the struggling economy," Archer said.

"Of course, the Bank of England has been arguing for some time that consumer price inflation will fall back sharply once temporary upward pressures wane, but it will nevertheless be pleased to see the process apparently finally get underway."

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Inflation in the UK has fallen to 4.8% in November, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has reported. High fuel prices drove consumer price inflation (CPI) to a three-year high of 5.2% in Septe...
Inflation in the UK has fallen to 4.8% in November, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has reported. High fuel prices drove consumer price inflation (CPI) to a three-year high of 5.2% in Septe...
 
 
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11:40 PM on 12/13/2011
The advertising run by Tesco recently is said to have cost about £ 500 million.
And not really successful because people did not buy into it.
Supermarkets pull off all kinds of stunts with bogus special offers.
Not to mention their rather dubious advertising spending for tabloids now
under scrutiny, being a scandal for themselves.
Instead of running stupid ads and sponsoring a disgusting and scandalous press
they should think of cutting prices instead in a sincere way, straight forward.
actually cutting prices
05:58 PM on 12/13/2011
Supermarkets brought nothing down, it was us the public, buying less, or taking our trade elsewhere that made them reduce their prices.
04:40 PM on 12/13/2011
Well, Supermarkets bringing inflation down, what a surprise. You have a government bent on increasing prices to bring in more tax revenue, and supermarkets desperate to maintain those remarkably stable market shares. Personally i dont see cheap prices at the supermarket, prices are much higher accross the board. There is a war here, but its a war between the governments need for tax revenue and supermarkets. Given trhat supermarkets still seem to be making profit, i can only imagine the obscene profits they must have been making during the good times. I think when the public see a price increase in the supermarket, which is not related to an offer, they should ask to speak to the manager, and ask him/her why the cost of this item has just increased by 25%
03:04 PM on 12/13/2011
I know its fairly hard to do, but if shoppers voted with their feet the big three would have to drop their prices.
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02:03 PM on 12/13/2011
I dread seeing basic items I regularly buy on offer at Tesco's, because I long ago realised that once the short offer period is over, the reality is it always heralds in the items price going up by a good 25% on top of its original pre offer price by the end of the year.So less of "Tesco offer" more "phase 1 of a cynical Tesco product price increase".
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01:19 PM on 12/13/2011
Supermarket prices are up year-on-year by about 5% - i.e. the rate of inflation.

Supermarkets' profits, and profit margins as a sector are not down.

The idea of a price war is incorrect - the relationship between supermarket chains is cosier than that.
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Norma Ward
12:18 PM on 12/13/2011
Europe's elevated inflation rate will continue to make it difficult for the ECB to increase liquidity in the Eurozone's bond markets as shown in this article:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/12/ecb-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place.html

If the ECB loosens and increases the money supply, inflation, which is already above their comfort zone, is likely to rise further. If they continue on their present course of keeping M3 growth at very low levels, the economy is likely to end up in recession.
01:34 PM on 12/13/2011
what's european inflation got to do with ours inflation in greece and elsewhere isn't the same as ours .