Eurozone Crisis: Mario Draghi, ECB President, Raises Fears Of Euro Break Up

European Central Bank President Raises Fears Of Euro Break Up

Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has outlined the dangers of the collapse of the eurozone, in an interview with the Financial Times.

The statement is an unusual step by Draghi, and distances himself from his predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet, who refused to countenance the possibility of a country leaving the single currency. It is also an indication of how far the crisis has moved on since the Italian took the helm at the ECB on November 1.

"When one starts with this you never know how it ends really," he said of the idea of a country leaving the euro.

Countries that did leave, Draghi told the paper, would suffer from inflation, and would have to implement structural reforms anyway.

Speculation continues that Greece may decide to reinstate the drachma and default on its debt, rather than face a long period of painful economic readjustment.

More concerning for the global economy, however, is how close to insolvency the Italian government is.

The third-largest economy in the eurozone should see its austerity package finally pass through the upper house today, putting the framework in place to reduce the national debt - currently at 120% of its gross domestic product. However, its cost of borrowing remains high, and markets remain concerned that, should it fail, there is no backstop big enough to prevent massive losses.

A variety of proposals are on the table, including a €200bn loan to the International Monetary Fund from EU member states, although that has run into problems with its funding. The UK has indicated that it would only pay €12bn into the fund, against an expectation of up €30-50bn, leaving a major gap.

The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the temporary bailout mechanism, will now be run through the ECB, but it is generally accepted that it is not large enough to deal with rolling crises in Italy, Spain and other troubled countries.

Draghi said little on the bond buying programme that has been shoring up sovereign debt in the eurozone, according to the FT, and appeared to rule out quantitative easing - which many in the markets had been expecting following the December 9 EU summit agreement.

"The important thing is to restore the trust of the people – citizens as well as investors – in our continent. We won’t achieve that by destroying the credibility of the ECB," he told the FT.

However, he did stress that the ECB had taken a major step in creating a facility for eurozone banks to take out unlimited three-year loans, a bid to ease the funding conditions for institutions struggling with a bleak outlook and the need to build capital buffers.

At BNY Mellon, chief currency strategist Simon Derrick wrote that this is " a potential area of hope for Italy", as although it does not put the ECB in the position of lender of last resort to sovereigns - a role that Germany refuses to allow - it does mean that it can finance countries indirectly by giving banks cheap money to let them buy government bonds.

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