Eurozone Crisis: Moody's Says UK Top Rating At Risk If Debt Deadlock Persists

Uksovereignrating

Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 20/12/11 18:51 GMT Updated: 20/12/11 19:03 GMT

Moody's, the credit rating agency, has warned that the UK's Aaa rating would be under threat in the event of further economic shocks.

In its annual credit report on the UK, Moody's said that the country's top rating is based on its structural strengths - long-term economic fundamentals, strong institutions and government finances and low susceptibility to external events.

The flexibility of the pound and the independent central bank mean that the UK is able to respond to economic shocks, and the long maturity of the country's debt both underpin the rating.

However, the agency said, "the UK faces formidable and rising challenges. Its near-term macroeconomic outlook has weakened, and this will likely slow the pace of its fiscal consolidation. The significant increase in the government's deficit and debt stock since 2008 has eroded its ability to absorb further macroeconomic or fiscal shocks without rating implications."

The stable outlook attached to the rating is predicated on the government sticking to its deficit reduction programme. If the economy slips further, or if the government has to step in to bail out financial institutions, these efforts are likely to be derailed.

With both the overall economy and the banking sector heavily exposed to the eurozone, the future of the rating is dependent on whether or not some resolution is found for the sovereign debt crisis on the periphery of the single currency area.

Although countries outside the eurozone "can be expected to be somewhat cushioned from both the euro area sovereign debt crisis and its rating consequences", the agency said "no EU sovereign rating can be considered immune to this crisis."

Earlier on Tuesday, Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean said that the institution was making preparations to support UK banks in the event that the single currency area did break up.

"I don't want to put probabilities on it breaking up, but it is clearly a worrying situation," he told the BBC.

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Moody's, the credit rating agency, has warned that the UK's Aaa rating would be under threat in the event of further economic shocks. In its annual credit report on the UK, Moody's said that the co...
Moody's, the credit rating agency, has warned that the UK's Aaa rating would be under threat in the event of further economic shocks. In its annual credit report on the UK, Moody's said that the co...
 
 
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06:57 PM on 12/23/2011
The "analysts" with the credit ratings agencies get a daily kick out of fancying themselves as more powerful than governments.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
12:45 PM on 12/21/2011
Following the Great Depression of the 1930's, politicians brought in laws to prevent the same thing ever happening again. Those laws were recently changed because they had become too "outdated". So when the credit crunch started in America, the world was plunged into crisis which nearly destroyed the financial system.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
12:28 PM on 12/21/2011
The credit ratings agencies can upgrade/downgrade their ratings of financial institutions/countries etc, but they don't control the safety of those institutions/countries etc, the MARKET does.
01:56 PM on 12/21/2011
Yes the market does control the safety, but the market reacts to things these agencies do and say.
So in reality, the credit agencies have the greatest power.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
05:31 PM on 12/21/2011
The market determines the price of anything far sooner than any credit agency, so the agencies merely endorse the decision the market has made.
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Norma Ward
12:23 PM on 12/21/2011
Here is an article that outlines a far more pragmatic rating system for sovereign debt than that provided by S&P or Moodys:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/12/united-states-and-canada-more-pragmatic.html

In this rating system, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States rate a very modest and realistic C, similar to most Eurozone debt transgressing nations. Perhaps it is the lack of a debt downgrade to more realistic levels that has prevented Congress from taking meaningful steps to resolving the debt and deficit issues.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
01:13 PM on 12/21/2011
The veracity of any rating system depends entirely on the accuracy of its data.
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yannb
Noblesse oblige
11:12 AM on 12/21/2011
Soooooo... the French weren't far off from reason after all. Yet once more. Like on Iraq. It's becoming a habit.
01:58 PM on 12/21/2011
No, get it right, the French threw their toys out of the pram and have since got the UK caught up in the crisis.
Lets hope France dont need to borrow money from us in the future.
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Roy Fowler
I try....I really do!
09:51 AM on 12/21/2011
So one of the "Big 3" ratings businesses is going to decide how much my mortgage will be, how much my food will cost and if i shall be able to keep my job.

Regardless of how hard we have cut back, regardles of the BILLIONS in taxpayer money that was given out to the banks to stabalise them and regardless of the millions now unemployed and those with lower or frozen salaries.....Nothing we do actually matters.

Our currency stands reasonably secure and solid, interest rates remain low and the Government is slashing its public spending and yet, all of this pain and suffering does not count.

So who will gain from this American businesses decision?

Well, those who are set to make BILLIONS in gambling on the rise and fall of UK stocks and shares.

Thats the Banks by the way.

They will be rubbing their hands in glee at the chance to play the game of making money with no need to worry about covering their losses; after all, thats what our savings, investments and pension plans are for.
09:32 AM on 12/21/2011
A lot here (rightly) about the rating agencies' failures to recognise the approachin­g disaster facing the world's largest banks. Not a word here, or anywhere else for that matter though about these banks' auditors.

They were the ones who were tasked with going through the books and asking searching questions to test the validity of the values that were propping up the balance sheet. Instead what we got year after year was them signing off the accounts as being 'a true and fair view' of the state of the business in exchange for millions of pounds in fees.

Not one qualificat­ion; not one whistle blown - No wonder we're all in a mess.
11:10 AM on 12/21/2011
That is true! The problem is that the whole system has become more and more corrupt, that there are too many rotten eggs to clear out.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
12:35 PM on 12/21/2011
Not one word either about the banks board of directors who are responsible for risk assessment and due dilligence, or lack of, which led to the downfall of RBS.
01:19 PM on 12/21/2011
That's right but the ultimate arbiters of the probity or otherwise of any business's accounts are supposed to be the auditors with their thousands of operatives, their resources and their experience. A lot's been rightly written about the failures of bank directors, both executive and non executive but it is their auditors, who year on year lulled everybody into a false sense of security who seem to have got off scot-free so far.
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07:45 AM on 12/21/2011
Many countries embraced Reaganomics in the 80s, remember, that trickle down promise that never happened except for the wealthy. Just like the US they are all looking to austerity measures to save themselves. It won't work but that's all they can come up with, while still protecting the wealthy. Financially the world is screwed because the very wealthy control most governments, not only in the US but Europe. Most people are not aware of this, typical American voter, and it will just be more of the same. Voters are afraid to try something different.
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07:32 AM on 12/21/2011
Which one of the Rockefellers or other big moneys controls Moody's? What a joke, who would believe any rating agency after what they've done the last 10 years?
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
12:26 AM on 12/21/2011
The ratings agencies have egg on their faces over the credit crunch and need to get their kudos back. Investors pay for their advice. Its pretty obvious that if the eurozone is affected by crisis there will be a knock-on effect across the world. No country is immune.
11:50 PM on 12/20/2011
The rating agencies are as accountable as Experian. They perform a function that nations believe in, even if the rating agencies mess-up now and again. However I believe the rating agencies have an ideological and cultural tilt. That should not surprise anyone.

The French definitely had a case against being (potentially) downgraded when the UK is given a green light.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
12:16 AM on 12/21/2011
Most of the ratings agencies are American and they had no compunction about down rating America.
07:33 AM on 12/21/2011
What was the effect on America? Non what so ever. This is because America is not a normal country. Borrowing cost did not rise for America. Jon Stewart (The Daily Show) even joked about it. The UK alone controls directly or indirectly, majority of the top tax havens in the world.
Tax havens filter wealth to the already wealthy, hence impoverishes the rest.

I suspect a low intensity financial and social struggle in the West. This struggle is between the Anglo-Saxon model (rigged capitalism) and the rest of the West(which tend to tilt toward more social stability and well-being).
07:41 AM on 12/21/2011
Remember I also did say the rating agencies had an ideological tilt too.
Obama is not their man... at least not enough. Bush ran the US like a casino & there was no peep from the rating agencies.
11:04 PM on 12/20/2011
Moodys = irrelevant
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
12:12 AM on 12/21/2011
They are not "irrelevant" to the investors who depend on their analysis, like fundmanagers and suchlike.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
10:24 PM on 12/20/2011
What's new? The credit ratings agencies have suddenly woken up after falling asleep over the credit crunch.
08:33 PM on 12/20/2011
For crying out loud! Who are these rating agencies,and why does everone pay so much attentiion to them. According to them the Credit Default Swaps that precipitated the current crisis we are going through wre all hunky dory. The fact is that the Euro is unlikely to survive in its present form. A large number of Southern European countries are unlikely to be able to meet the fiscal disciplines necesary to keep an overvalued currency afloat. The only way they are going to be able to survive is to leave the Euro and devalue their domestic currencies. The Euro is a currency without a country, and by trying to maintain it we are reliving the mess that the Gold Standard got us into. We need anotyher Bretton Woods.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
10:30 PM on 12/20/2011
They were stupid to get rid of the gold standard, it allows governments to print their own money.
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12:51 AM on 12/21/2011
Exellent and important post, we can learn a lot from history. The Euro is homeless and ungrounded and so values itself against itself. Just like the demise of Breton Woods in 1971 (the Nixon shock), the de-coupling the Dollar from the gold standard gave power to the fed and made the Dollar Fiat currency. This unsettlement fostered economic termoil in the 1970's (particularly with oil).
I agree, the credit rating agencies cannot and do not help here. Indeed their ratings sanctioned the junk that caused this economic mess, and their "opinions" should be taken with a pinch of salt.