Eurozone Crisis: ECB's 'Back Door Quantitative Easing' Lifts Markets

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Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 21/12/11 13:13 GMT Updated: 21/12/11 13:25 GMT

A new lending programme from the European Central Bank has been hailed as quantitative easing by the back door, causing markets to rally on fresh hopes that a solution to the eurozone debt crisis might be on the cards. However, concerns began to bleed back in by early afternoon.

More than 500 banks borrowed €489bn from the ECB on Wednesday as a programme of cheap three-year loans offered by the institution saw strong demand. Initial consensus expectations were that take-up would be in the region of €300bn.

The initiative, which allows banks within the eurozone to borrow at massively reduced rates of 1%, aims to ease the funding pressure within the single currency area and head off a credit crunch. The move has also potentially resolved some of the short-term concerns over the Spanish economy, which has been suffering from a major dearth of confidence due to its under-capitalised banking sector.

While this is not the ECB "bazooka" - money printing to buy Italian, Spanish and other eurozone countries' debt - that many in the markets had hoped for, analysts noted that the programme can operate as quantitative easing through the back door, with banks able to borrow money cheaply to buy bonds.

As many analysts noted, there is a profitable "carry trade" to be made in borrowing at 1% from the ECB and buying up peripheral debt at 5% or more, especially given that some of the risk has been taken out by EU promises that private sector holders will not face "haircuts" on their holdings in the event of any future debt restructuring.

Markets have rallied on the apparent success of the programme. The German DAX and French CAC-40 closed up 3.11% and 2.73%, respectively, on Tuesday, and extended those gains in early trading on Wednesday, although the rally began to peter out by early afternoon.

"It's still not as good in my view… as the ECB buying bonds directly, and we'd maintain the view that it's not going to have the full effect that they're hoping for," John Ventre, a portfolio manager at Skandia Investment Group said. "But in terms of putting a credit crunch in Europe further away, taking some of that risk away, it certainly does that."

Perhaps more significantly, an auction of short-term Spanish debt saw yields fall markedly on Tuesday, as investors took heart from what looked to be a potential - temporary - solution to the banking crisis in the country.

Spain's sovereign debt has been under pressure because of widespread fears that it would have to bail out its banks, massively adding to a debt mountain that is, by Italian standards at least, relatively modest.

The Spanish government's debt is only around 60% of its gross domestic product (GDP), but the collapse of the country's housing bubble left many of its regional savings banks, or cajas, hugely underfunded and fragile to external shocks. Despite being semi-nationalised and compelled to merge, those banks have struggled to raise money to increase their resilience. The ECB's programme should allow them to begin to build their capital relatively cheaply, easing the pressure on the sovereign.

"If ECB action can sort out the banks, then this takes Spain off the hit list," Ventre said.

Some analysts, however, suggested that the rally was driven by liquidity, rather than a real belief that the ECB had meaningfully changed the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis.

“The big figure was welcomed initially but huge demand for ECB loans is not exactly a positive and simply reflects the huge squeeze European banks are feeling at present," Richard Driver, analyst at Caxton FX said. “The loans taken up will certainly help to ease liquidity, similar to last month’s coordinated central bank action on dollar swaps, but it also highlights the gravity of the situation in the eurozone."

Italy remains the biggest worry for the eurozone - its debt stands at €1.8tr, around 120% of its GDP, and there are serious doubts about its ability to cut back on government spending. Those concerns have led to a rise in its cost of borrowing, with yields on 10-year bonds crossing the 7% mark in November. The country has to refinance hundreds of billions of euros in debt over the next few years, and, with growth forecast to be sluggish at best, faces serious challenges to its solvency.

European Union leaders failed on Tuesday to agree on how contributions to a proposed €200bn loan to the International Monetary Fund would be split between member states. Bolstering the IMF's lending facility is one way that policymakers might be able to make the resources available for any future rescue of the eurozone's struggling economies.

Plans to source money from emerging markets to boost the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) have already fallen by the wayside, and Germany has nixed proposals for centrally-issued "eurobonds", on fears that its own jealously-guarded sovereign rating would be jeopardised.

Market participants routinely talk about the need for a €1tr firewall to protect the eurozone in the event of Italy becoming insolvent and needing a bail out, although how that figure is affected by the fact that some banks have now been able to start their recapitalisation process using ECB money remains to be seen.

"There's a bit of light in it, there's a bit of dark in it," Ventre said. "The dark is it probably doesn't achieve exactly what the ECB is hoping for, but the light of it is that it goes some way towards stabilising the European financial system, if not the European sovereigns."

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A new lending programme from the European Central Bank has been hailed as quantitative easing by the back door, causing markets to rally on fresh hopes that a solution to the eurozone debt crisis migh...
A new lending programme from the European Central Bank has been hailed as quantitative easing by the back door, causing markets to rally on fresh hopes that a solution to the eurozone debt crisis migh...
 
 
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04:33 AM on 12/22/2011
Quick! Take your ECB 1% loan out and trade it for Italian bonds @ 7% now so you can extract your pound of flesh before all government property/services are privatized!

http://jeffstilley.wordpress.com/2011/12/21/the-eurozone-crisis-part-1-the-euro/
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floodberg
Attorney (ret.)
02:48 AM on 12/22/2011
Hmmm, does anyone think this does anything but make brokers feel better?

Well, it extends the torture of the working classes as the Euro continues its death throes.  More OAPs will freeze and starve to death, more migrants will come, more folks will lose jobs.  The MPs will have a long break (most of which will be covered by expenses) and the bankers' bonuses will be grand since BoE will continue QE3 and bail 'em all out when it collapses anyway.

For entertainment, the great unwashed can enjoy Downton Abbey's Christmas Special (if they have a tv and paid the license fee.) If you're broke, you can warm yourself by imagining Merkel sweating over the imminent collapse and Sarkozy trying to figure out how to save himself since Merkel tossed his French a*se under a bus. 

Maybe the House of Lords will bring back workhouses.

Happy Christmas.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
07:33 PM on 12/21/2011
There's nothing like a bit of financial engineering to deflect people away from the likelyhood that we're revisiting the 1930's Great Depression. Talk to me again in a year's time and tell me if you're still optimistic of being saved.
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Roy Fowler
I try....I really do!
03:18 PM on 12/21/2011
"More than 500 banks borrowed €489bn (at a rate of just 1%) from the ECB on Wednesday as a programme of cheap 3 year loans offered by the institution saw strong demand. Expectations were that take-up would be in the region of €300bn".

Todays Bloomberg says: “This is basically free money,” said Jens-Oliver Niklasch, a strategist at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart. “The conditions are unbeatable. Everybody who can will try to get a piece of this cake.”

As long as your a Bank you can get access to this "free money"; If you are a home owner close to losing your home or a business desperate for a bridging loan for new machinery then sadly, "Free cash" is not for the likes of you.

Will they actually start distributing some of the £350 BILLION WE gave them to help OUR economy. Or will they simply laugh at how much PROFIT they are now going to make without any real risk.

Will Banks start lending to you, I and businesses at 2 or 3% interest? Or will they carry on at 6.4% to 8% on our loans?

Well we know the answer to that dont we?

Once again, this shows that ALL of the EU Nations are now solely and totally run for and on behalf of the "Banks" and what THEY need and want comes before anything that might help the hard working men and women who carry the burden of the Bankers greed and stupidity.
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03:01 PM on 12/21/2011
500 banks and 485 BILLION euros almost 1 BILLION euros per bank. As I look at the stock markets just now 14:58 on 21/12/2011 both the FSTE and DOW are down 0.3%. This money will be added to the banks profit margin and just in time for the end of year bonus. KERRRRRRRRRCHING. Buy shares in Aston Martin, Porsche and Ferrari as next year the banksters and city will be buying big.
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AceNewsServices
Changing The World One Step At A Time
02:59 PM on 12/21/2011
With borrowing comes responsibility or so the story goes because this story gets more like a pantomime everyday. You can make your own mind up to which one and who plays certain characters but now we have a benefactor good olde ECB and what have they offered this Christmastide well money of course, well they are a bank. But not just any bank but the bank of last resort and what does the one in [drag-hi] do but buy up all the debt of other countries.

Now we should all be saying well done but instead we are saying he`s behind you and his name is not Abanazar, but something much worse the " Ghost of Christmas Of Yet To Come " namely a huge " Debt Mountain " but in the meantime people will still dress up and act out the pantomime until the very last act.

Then it will be CURTAIN`S
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carneliancrystal
Do I believe all the propaganda of course I do
04:45 PM on 12/21/2011
The sooner its curtains the better just delaying the enevitable, If I tried quantative easing printing money I would go to jail.
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AceNewsServices
Changing The World One Step At A Time
11:27 AM on 12/24/2011
I agree it is just robbing Peter to pay Paul but in this case it is then robbing Paul to pay Peter back. Its a vicious circle.
02:25 PM on 12/21/2011
They are missing the point completely.
If they create money, then they will only cause more problems. Then lending this money to banks to buy government debt is just stupid.
Why not just give these country the money direct, and allow them to pay off all debt and start over again??
Then no country would have any debt, and therefore the credit crisis would be over.
It sounds daft but it is true, as this new money that has been lent out, will only cost the tax payers more money long term, and will in some cases be defaulted on, starting the cycle all over again.
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AceNewsServices
Changing The World One Step At A Time
03:02 PM on 12/21/2011
This would be too easy as they would have to give up the moral high ground and admit they were wrong, l agree with you but this is politics and how often do you hear a politician say l was wrong? Nice comment though.
03:35 PM on 12/21/2011
Yeah its a shame.
To be fair its the bank that needs to have some sense, as they are making more money to make even more money.
It would be much easier if they just asked everyone to donate £100 or their wage straight to the country coffers.
But i doubt they will have the cheek to try.
01:51 PM on 12/21/2011
Hmmm. Do we know for a fact that the £489 will be used to shore up on bonds? Instead of propping up reserve ratios and bad debts?