Eurozone Crisis: Euro Falls As Debt Fears Resurface

Eurosterling

Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 05/01/12 14:01 Updated: 05/01/12 17:29

The euro fell to 15-month lows against the pound and 16-month lows against the dollar on Thursday and could fall further, analysts said, as investors' fears over the future of the single currency resurfaced after the festive break.

The euro fell against most major currencies on Thursday morning despite a relatively successful French bond auction. Investors demanded yields of 3.28% on the country's 10-year debt, despite continuing concerns that its top credit rating may be downgraded. France, like other eurozone countries, has struggled to balance driving economic growth with reducing its government deficit.

However, demand for the bonds was not overwhelming, with the bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of the number of investors looking to buy, versus the amount of securities on offer, falling to 1.643%, down from more than 3% at the previous auction.

After the French auction, the euro hit a 15-month low of 1.2832 against the dollar, and was down to 0.8267 against the pound. The main European stock indices were also down.

The single currency has been on a downward trend since the final weeks of 2011, despite remaining relatively strong against the dollar during the year.

"2011 was a strong year for the euro, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates twice and Asian sovereigns invested heavily," Richard Driver, currency market analyst at Caxton FX said.

"The debt crisis and the lack of any clear direction in the eurozone is finally taking its toll on the single currency. The market wants a more central role for the ECB in addressing the crisis but Germany continues to resist. The region is heading into recession, bond yields remain elevated and the short-term threat of eurozone debt downgrades from Standard & Poor’s is keeping investors on edge."

Driver said that he expects the euro to fall to 1.25 against the pound in the first half of 2012, and 0.8 against the dollar.

"There are bound to be plenty more euro-sell offs this year," he said.

Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at BNY Mellon, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday morning that it is usually difficult to use the currency's movements early in the year to forecast its fortunes for the rest of it, as both 2011 and 2010 saw trends that were then reversed dramatically.

However, the next few months could see it continue to fall, as doubts over the future of the eurozone begin once again to fill investors' radar screens, Mellor said.

"Cold, hard reality was brought home by yesterday’s Bund auction, whose allocation was only just covered and which served to remind us that investors’ faith in the Euro-zone has been shaken to the core," he wrote.

The last time the euro was this low was early in 2011, Mellor noted, before the revelations that Greece would need a second bailout, before Italy and Spain had been dragged into the mire of the sovereign debt crisis and before the markets had lost faith in the firepower of European bailout mechanisms, such as the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), to create safety nets should the crisis worsen.

This suggests that the currency's floor could be a lot lower than it is now.

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The euro fell to 15-month lows against the pound and 16-month lows against the dollar on Thursday and could fall further, analysts said, as investors' fears over the future of the single currency resu...
The euro fell to 15-month lows against the pound and 16-month lows against the dollar on Thursday and could fall further, analysts said, as investors' fears over the future of the single currency resu...
 
 
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23:02 on 05/01/2012
Most smart people would cut their losses and run from this Socialist sinking ship.
22:07 on 05/01/2012
Greece want over 140 billions dollers in end of March 2012 to be bail out? wow man i only need around 300,000 pounds to settle my life and yes i would pay around 4% interest rate so are there any nation around for me? I do not need that short of like 7 trillions dollers or 50 billions per month like UK government need to survive? This 50 billions is to run the government it is not the income but extra out going, more it goes more debt is on card. Carry on printing money and carry on borrowing so both combine together then pay interest rates to England bank or bank of England then tax payers would foot the bill so their kids in years to come. Not the working tax i am talking about but borrowing money tax which government needs it to run the country while they on power.

Why tax payers pay for all this? tax payers were voters when they vote the party to come and run their lives? It cost you know to run your life you know, so it is costing now? Previous government screwed us up bad time and debt they created by paying billions if not trillions in name of war then benefit and immigration they robe the nation call UK?
21:34 on 05/01/2012
What no one seems to be addressing is the underlying issue of 'solvency', or increasingly likely, insolvency of debtor nations within the eurozone. Eventually the financial institutions - and the investors therein - are going to wake up the artificiality of the Euro and what it represents.. a non United States of Europe.Also those intrinsically week economies placing unbearable strains on the stronger ones within the zone. There's a old english saying "You cannot make silk purses from pigs ears." and the Euro is/was a doomed 'pigs ear'. I'm just so pleased that the UK has stayed well clear of it.

Mike M Mid -Sussex
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Carl Baron
AGPCUK
21:12 on 05/01/2012
I’d sooner a strong £ and be able to purchase more from abroad, contrary to beliefs it would help retailers purchase more, hence a knock on effect.
19:52 on 05/01/2012
what else can be expected it was artifically high anyway, but the fools will just print more of it and reduce its value even more, it will end up like germany in the 1930's where a wheelbarrow full of money was needed to buy a loaf of bread. The greedy buggers in the UK Government are trying that on now.May be its time for another war
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John michael Adams
19:18 on 05/01/2012
this year is the 10th anniversary of the euro... and none in Brussels is celebrating it. LoL Fail
now Greece needs to secure 100 billion dollar loan before February. If you are a bank would you lend Greece knowing it can Never Pay its debts? Never!!! It is like throwing money into a bonfire.
16:57 on 05/01/2012
The Euro is funny money just like the US dollar. The problem in Europe is each country can not just print even more funny money like we do in the US.
Michael II
Neither the one, nor the only
17:40 on 05/01/2012
This is precisely the reason the Chinese banks prefer the euro to the dollar.
18:02 on 05/01/2012
Eventually (and soon) we will lose reserve currency status. That will be a bad day.
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John michael Adams
19:20 on 05/01/2012
actually the Chinese and Japanese have more confidence to the dollar than the euro. Nomura Holdings, the largest financial institution in Japan and second in the world, already sold all its euro reserves.
Michael II
Neither the one, nor the only
16:43 on 05/01/2012
And yet, Ireland & Portugal's 3-year bond issues for €3 billion were oversubscribed. Additionally, last year saw record levels of investment in Ireland http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0105/breaking25.html creating 13,000 new jobs.

All through last year - a crisis year - the euro was surprisingly high. Maybe it's time to boost the zone's exports a bit. Some 42% of transactions worldwide are in the euro, and 40% of Russia's assets are held in euros.

It's clear there are very major problems (with more to come). But I'm beginning to think the fall of the euro is a bit like the millennium bug when planes were supposedly going to drop out of the sky at midnight. In fact, what happened to Greece defaulting in November and the euro not making it into 2012?
16:37 on 05/01/2012
The end of the Eurozone will be like the fall of the Berlin wall. Millions of people suddenly free from tyranny, fraud and incompetence.
concodtob
16 stone athlete and intellectual
15:56 on 05/01/2012
If the Eurozone breaks up then that will be the end of the EUSSR project with some good fortune.But then where will the Eurocrats get their money from and what about all these good causes???

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8548497/The-European-Unions-spending-a-guide.html
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OH72
17:31 on 05/01/2012
Oh lovely, citing the Torygraph on the EU, are we? I bet you also cite the Pope as an authority on homosexuality and contraception?
concodtob
16 stone athlete and intellectual
18:21 on 05/01/2012
The truth must hurt for you to come out with such a ridiculous rant.I'm not religious either so crawl back under the europhile rock from where you came.
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John michael Adams
19:24 on 05/01/2012
go bow to your masters in Brussels. No wonder none of the eurocrats are celebrating the 10th anniversary of the euro this year. LoL Epic Fail.

sorry, eurocrat, your eutopia is over.
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Baneblade
Subversive Individual
15:37 on 05/01/2012
As always Europe is behind the times with its fraud, and must look to the United States for examples of how to better mismanage itself. I have indeed noticed that there have been no wars between Britain and France in quite some time. The people depended on large scale pointless conflict to bring them uncertainty and misery, so I suggest rectifying the situation post-haste.
16:33 on 05/01/2012
+1
Hear Hear - a good ol' war between France and Britain. Maybe we could resurrect Napoleon, and maybe you could find some other descendent of Marlborough!

Alas, peace and prosperity in Europe: what a sad sight! ;-)
17:24 on 05/01/2012
We don't need to fight amoungst pourselves we can just meddle in the Middle East and pretend they have weapons to find.
15:34 on 05/01/2012
Quote: "the euro hit a 15-month low of 1.2832 against the dollar"

In January 2002 the rate was 0.86 against the dollar. From then on it continued to climb. I can recall that when it reached 1.25 German exporters were very worried that level was an unsustainable rate, yet they continued to flourish despite the fact that the rate reached nearly 1.60 in April 2008.

After the banking crisis hit, the rate fell to 1.25 in November 2008 and its most recent low is 1.19 in June 2010.

Since its high the Euro has fallen 20% against the dollar and Sterling has fallen 23% against the dollar. Despite the crisis in the Eurozone, the Euro is still doing better than the supposed "safe haven" of Sterling.

CNBC reported opinions of bankers on the rate that the euro will end the year - those opinions varied from 1.13 to 1.46. Confounding the earnest hopes of the anti-EU brigade, the Euro is not going to collapse any time soon.
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John michael Adams
19:28 on 05/01/2012
lies.
21:20 on 05/01/2012
Feel free to provide evidence for your assertion.
22:59 on 05/01/2012
If Greece defaults Ireland wil flolow, then Portugal, Spain and Italy , then France - the Euro wil effectively be the new Deutschmark
14:32 on 05/01/2012
Well well! A currency created as a political initiative the value of which was underwritten by a strict set of rules that were then broken wholesale by the very politicians who created it, is now in deep trouble. Whatever next?
Robaloba
GOP = Gorging On Proletariat
14:33 on 05/01/2012
I wouldn't go so far as to say it's in deep trouble...not too long ago the dollar was stronger than the Euro...
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OH72
14:56 on 05/01/2012
Well, well, someone who doesn't even understand the concept of what a "15 month low" is - namely that not even one and a half years ago, the Euro was lower. And in fact, it's been MUCH lower in the past.
15:39 on 05/01/2012
and this is good? whats your point? are we to celebrate how low it gets? if so I can't wait for it to be worth zero, obviously with the Euro clowns in charge we'll not have to wait too long, they'll be too busy with bent bananas to think about sorting out their failed currency. ha ha
19:23 on 05/01/2012
It's value against the dollar or any other currency isn't the point. The 'debt fears' that this article refers to are based on the markets pricing in risk by discounting the face value of Eurobonds, which is pushing interest rates for the issuers of those bonds. As the issuers (Greece, Italy, Spain and so on) currently have the Euro as their currency this pushes up their debt servicing costs by billions of Euros a year. If that doesn't signal a currency or indeed a currency union in deep trouble I don't know what does.
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Norma Ward
14:25 on 05/01/2012
From its inception, Europe had in place measures that were supposed to ensure fiscal responsibility by limiting deficits and debt increases as shown here:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/12/where-did-europe-go-wrong.html

Unfortunately, Europe is not a union of economic or fiscal equals, a fact that will likely be the cause of the potential Eurozone collapse.
15:32 on 05/01/2012
yippee, monopoly money's a better bet