UK Growth Forecasts Downgraded By Business Body CBI (But Economy In 'Recovery')

UK Growth Forecasts Slashed Again (But It's Not All Bad News)

Leading business body the CBI has slashed the UK's growth forecasts. However it's not all bad news: household incomes will be given some much needed relief and the economy will narrowly avoid entering a recession.

The CBI downgraded 2012 growth prospects for the fifth time amid the worsening eurozone debt crisis and now expects GDP to increase just 0.9%, down from the 1.2% growth it forecast as recently as November.

Its prediction for 2013 was also lowered to a modest 2% from 2.2%.

However although growth will remain subdued and conditions tough, the CBI thinks the UK will avoid an official recession - two quarters of declines in a row - as it bounces back from its 0.2% fall in the final quarter of 2011 with growth of 0.2% in the first three months of this year.

And households suffering their longest squeeze in living standards for a generation will receive some much needed relief as the consumer prices index (CPI) rate of inflation continues to fall from its 5.2% peak in September.

Inflation is expected to drop to 2.2% in the final quarter of the year and will remain close to the Bank of England's 2% target throughout 2013.

However, with unemployment rising to 2.9 million in the first quarter of 2013 - higher than its previous estimate of 2.75 million - wage growth is set to remain modest.

Nonetheless, the falling inflation will allow consumer spending to pick up slightly in the second half of the year.

The CBI thinks that as the economic recovery continues, the Bank of England will hike interest rates from their record low of 0.5% in the final quarter of 2013 but expects no further emergency quantitative easing to inject cash into the economy.

CBI director general John Cridland said: "Economic conditions will continue to be tough, especially in the first half of the year and the UK recovery will depend on the successful resolution of the eurozone crisis.

"The pressure on household incomes will also ease slightly in the second half of this year as inflation falls, resulting in a slight increase in consumer spending.

"But weak wage growth and high levels of unemployment will continue to be a brake on household spending."

The CBI downgraded its forecasts after "a particularly difficult autumn" but has been encouraged by increasingly upbeat recent industry surveys and business optimism.

It predicts growth will gather pace in the second half of the year, hitting 0.6% in the third quarter but will remain fragile with high levels of uncertainty driven by the eurozone crisis.

However, the CBI has been encouraged by efforts by the European Central Bank to inject more cash into the economy, reducing the risk of a banking crisis.

It said there are signs the core eurozone countries are seeing signs of stabilisation, which will help boost UK exports.

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