London 2012: 'Extreme' Flu Pandemic Risk During Olympics Claims Report

Posted: 2/04/2012 07:37 Updated: 2/04/2012 08:16   PA

Olympics
London 2012 Olympic stadium (file)

This summer's Olympics will increase the already "extreme" risk of a flu pandemic spreading in the UK, according to a new report.

Britain was ranked second only to Singapore for its vulnerability to the rapid spread of an influenza outbreak.

The UK is at such high risk because of its densely-packed cities, highly-mobile population and popularity as a global travel hub, Bath-based analysts Maplecroft found.

The study said the London Olympics in July and August will increase the danger of flu spreading because an extra 5.3m foreign tourists - many from countries where any pandemic is likely to emerge - are expected to visit Britain for the Games.

Maplecroft's influenza pandemic risk index rates five countries at "extreme" risk for the spread of the disease, with Singapore top, followed by the UK, South Korea, the Netherlands and Germany.

But Britain was also judged to be one of the 10 countries best placed to withstand any outbreak thanks to its strong governance, effective health infrastructure and good communications networks.

The report found that South-East Asia was most likely to see a new flu pandemic emerge, with the region containing six of the 10 countries at highest risk.

Four nations were considered "extreme" risk in this category, with Cambodia top, followed by Bangladesh, China and Vietnam.

The authors expressed particular concern about China, whose growing prosperity has led to higher consumption of meat and therefore a rise in livestock numbers.

They noted: "The likelihood that influenza strains will emerge within China takes on extra significance in light of the fact that the country is also highly vulnerable to the spread of disease (it ranks 18th and high risk in Maplecroft's risk of spread index), which increases the risk of a pandemic outbreak."

Past flu pandemics have caused disaster on a global scale. The 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak killed up to 40 million people, more than the number who died in the First World War.

The H1N1 swine flu outbreak in 2009-10 claimed 457 lives in the UK. Experts believe more severe pandemics may occur in the future, possibly as a result of a mutated bird flu strain.

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This summer's Olympics will increase the already "extreme" risk of a flu pandemic spreading in the UK, according to a new report. Britain was ranked second only to Singapore for its vulnerability t...
This summer's Olympics will increase the already "extreme" risk of a flu pandemic spreading in the UK, according to a new report. Britain was ranked second only to Singapore for its vulnerability t...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LolaGetz
If you obey all the rules, you'll miss all the fun
06:45 PM on 04/03/2012
I guess that means I should be happy now that I didn't manage to get tickets to any Olympic events during that farce of a ticket-buying process that was held for those of us who actually live in the UK. If I stay indoors at home in Yorkshire, maybe I'll avoid the germs. I had swine flu last time it passed through in 2009; wonder if that one will swing through again or if it's bird flu I should be terrified of this year. We'll just have to wait for the talking heads on television to tell us what to fear next.
10:32 AM on 04/03/2012
yes this is blatant scaremongering, but if the authorities are at all concerned, why not scrap this expensive nonsense, it is not sportt and it is not fair competition, it is however wildly expensive and not at all beneficial to this country, i do not care what those "in the know" spout, anything that is useful is only temporary, just have a good look at other countries that have hosted this event in that last fifty years...................
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janno000
10:24 AM on 04/03/2012
more scaremongering, haven't we had enough of that!
majdf18148
I have nothing to declare but my curiosity
03:59 PM on 04/02/2012
As an erstwhile fairly senior NHS employee I have simply stopped listening to the wild array of assertions and warnings of yet another plague that is going to infect us all. Avian flu was going to potentially wipe out half of mankind. Swineflu similarly. Warnings of flu pandemics caused the Govt to stockpile £hundreds of millions worth of Tamiflu and other worthless "antidotes" on the not to be dismissed "damned if you do damned if you don't" theory.These expensive products could, if taken early enough after the onset of symptoms, alleviate the severity of the flu attack by about 10% and lessen the duration of the attack by a day or two.The drugs are probably now well out of date and consigned to the state bonfire.Add to these dire warnings the constantly changing and conflicting public health advice on every imaginable aspect of our lives and it is no wonder that people simply switch off and ignore the whole issue. Less is more when it comes to issuing health warnings,otherwise come the day when it really is necessary to take preventative measures noone will believe it.
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buster1949
04:54 PM on 04/03/2012
I like your coment, and would like a reply please, my Mom was a school nurse, and my aunty a health inspecter.
However, when I was young I was allowed to play in the garden and get filthy dirty, well they were not to happy me being so dirty, and ofcourse a bath would follow! I add I am 63 now.
I used to ride my bike to school and back 4 times a day, calling home for lunch which my mom would cook. On an evening again I would cycle to my friends houses for yet another bike ride. I can not remember the last time I had a cold or flu, Can you build up a natural immunity?
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LolaGetz
If you obey all the rules, you'll miss all the fun
06:37 PM on 04/03/2012
That's something I've been wondering about for a long time too. I was born and raised in the deep south in America and had sinus problems from the time I was very young, and was also susceptible to repeated colds and chest infections. Then I moved to England as a young adult and have lived there since 1986. I was worried that the damp climate would be bad for me, but in fact the opposite has been true. I rarely have colds and, funnily enough, the last time I was really sick (aside from a brief bout of food poisoning last year) was when I was one of the people unfortunate enough to get swine flu during the height of the 2009 epidemic (I believe I was exposed to it at the Glastonbury festival, where some people were airlifted out after becoming really ill). Aside from that, I rarely get sick any more, nor do I spend much of my time obsessing about it.

The former NHS employee you were replying to has it right, in my opinion: less is more when it comes to health warnings because people just go completely overboard. Scaremongering is irresponsible.

One big difference I've noticed over the years between medical care in the US and UK is that, in my experience, American doctors prescribe a lot more antibiotics than British doctors do, including when they're not absolutely necessary (but patients don't like being told to let an ailment run its course without prescription medication).
majdf18148
I have nothing to declare but my curiosity
07:03 PM on 04/03/2012
The jury is out on your question. Some people do seem to be less susceptible to flu than others but the strain mutates and changes each year. Scientists try to predict and work out the likely most virulent strains and then produce the vaccine for that strain. Ergo the vaccine is different each year. The vaccine is a "non live" variety therefore contrary to what some people think you simply cannot get the flu from having the vaccination. Some flu strains, such as Swineflu, seem to be "caught" by the younger, generally more healthier of the nation so there is no real reim or reason to it all. Flu is more dangerous to the elderly and those with chronic diseases such as heart , liver, kidney diseases asthma et al. People taking steroids that lower the body's immune system also have to be extra vigilant. Hope that helps.
03:05 PM on 04/02/2012
Why don't they just ban all foreign Olympic teams share out the medals and call it off. Better than getting flu
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
denspark1560
02:56 PM on 04/02/2012
Just in case you were actually looking forward to the Olympics this is the official "we can't have you enjoying yourself" report. What kind of boring, depressed people write these things? We have sporting events every week with hundreds of thousands of fans attending. This is just a non story, predicting pandemics has became as reliable as weather forecasting.
02:05 PM on 04/02/2012
The whole reason for the Olympic's, the main reason for these games has long been over.
That being the very lucrative building contracts handed out, back-handers given, etc expenses claims advertising contracts promotional contracts, and general overall fiddling to mention just a few. Proportionally, very few people are interested in such as watching such as bicyclists wearing silly hats and skin tight ballerina stockings riding round and round an round again..with others risking a heart attack whilst running round an round a big circle, and spear an plate throwing !
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minimemo
Can I be your friend...if they let me out...
02:35 PM on 04/02/2012
I keep saying the Olypmics should be a permanent base on an island in Greece where there is a different 'host' every four years, with the facilities made available the rest of the time for training.. But, ya don't get much chance to earn millions or get backhanders if you do it this way, just ask 'Lord' Coe and his 'co-horts'! Entire thing has become a complete rip off farce with fat cats getting fatter and olympians getting screwed!
07:40 AM on 04/03/2012
A greek island is not suitable - far too near the UK. The Olympics demand a highly symbolic permanent site under international administration - the S. Pole seems ideal, until such time as we can transfer this lunacy to the Moon!
02:42 PM on 04/02/2012
Please leave us poor 'bicyclists' alone & enjoy your comfortable armchair games!
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01:18 PM on 04/02/2012
Shurely the risk of flu pandemics is in the winter not summer? The only one I can remember that bucked the trend was Swine flu which actualy did things the opposite way round and spread in the summer not winter.So bearring in mind the Olympics are on in the summer and every previous flu epidemic bar Swine Flu was a winter event how does that make the Flu pandemic risk "Extreme?
01:10 PM on 04/02/2012
Whatever next.........Stadium closed due to outbreak of hay fever .......mmmmhh... Maybe that's a winner there. If we all stick together and get the flu maybe they cancel the whole b.s. :-))
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12:59 PM on 04/02/2012
More scaremongering.
12:30 PM on 04/02/2012
I woner what percentage of those Olympics visitors will forget to go home after the games finish?
02:45 PM on 04/02/2012
I'll be surprised if any turn up at all based on the usual 'warm welcome' everyone else receives here.
12:11 PM on 04/02/2012
READ ON... and it says "But Britain was also judged to be one of the 10 countries best placed to withstand any outbreak thanks to its strong governance, effective health infrastructure and good communications networks." ... So what the hell's the story. a Flu pandemic could be started by one person flying into the UK... you don't need an Olympics. WHAT A NON-STORY!!
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edmurfin
Old man, on Bonus Time:-)
11:41 AM on 04/02/2012
Millions of unused vaccines lie in cold storage when the last 'flu scare failed to happen. Those vaccines cost money and have to be used else they may have to be disposed of. So. Let's try to frighten people into getting vaccinated, even though i've seen no proof that they make the least difference to the numbers of people who contract 'flu. Then the 'pharmas can make more, ready for sale to the NHS and gain yet more profit.
11:55 AM on 04/02/2012
Vaccines are produced to treat particular known strains of flu,if you catch a different type hard luck!
11:38 AM on 04/02/2012
Never mind the flu outbreak if we don't get any rain what will happen they will need to have the swimming events in the thames and all the visitors what will they do. Maybe that is why we are having a hose pipe ban this early to save water for the olympics
11:03 AM on 04/02/2012
Brings tears to my eyes when I think of what they could have done with all those billions wasted on the Olympic fiasco.
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All the schools in the country could have benifited from better sports facilities
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. If there is any truth in this report the fiasco will be remembered for our .... ''strong governance, effective health infrastructure and good communications networks''
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Stop the world, I want to get off.
11:19 AM on 04/02/2012
Flingelbunt
Great screen name...Shadows fan?
02:09 PM on 04/02/2012
They were big when I was a kid and my sister worshiped them. Never worked out where they found the name though, although someone did tell me it came from a Scottish poem.