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Michael Rundle
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UK Drought: How Close Is The UK To Waterpocalypse?

Posted: 21/04/2012 16:54 Updated: 21/04/2012 16:54

Drought

For those with an apocalyptic imagination and a tabloid subscription, the future of drought-stricken Britain seems increasingly bleak.

The statistics alone read like the introduction to a sci-fi film: more than 35m people in England are currently living under drought conditions; two of the driest winters in history, and the driest March in 59 years, mean that underground water and reservoir levels are falling at the fastest rate for two decades; the Met Office says there is a good chance this spring could see the least rainwater since (in that dreaded phrase) "records began" - and there is no end on the forecasted horizon.

Now some are thirstily reporting the terrifying possibility that "specially imported foreign water" might have to be brought to the UK using giant ships to quench our demand, while water bosses are threatening to sell water from region to region "like oil".

So how close really is the UK to a 'Mad Max' vision of the future, where water is traded in the deserts of Sussex and Surrey by Evian-tattooed wildmen atop three-wheeled motorcycles?

And what can we do to avoid ever getting there?

Our Last Resort? The Cost Of Importing Water By Tanker

If the UK theoretically ran out of water completely it would be technically possible to bring in water via tanker. But it's not cheap.

Several major countries have attempted it, however.

When Jersey experienced its own drought crisis in November it looked at keeping its population in water in this way, and for one tanker containing 100m litres of water - enough for five days supply for Jersey's 150,000 people - the water authorities there were quoted around £1m.

Howard Snowden, managing director of Jersey Water, said the tanker would have come via Norway, where it would have filled up with freshwater near to the fjords.

Given a similar structure, it would cost (very roughly) about £46m per day to provide basic water to the 35m people currently experiencing drought in the UK.

Extended over a six month period, that would cost the UK around £8.3bn just for the raw water alone, ignoring the massive cost of distribution. In reality such a monumental effort would either prove impossible or many times more expensive. Rapid expansion of desalination capacity with temporary equipment would also prove very costly.

A wooden branch lies in the dry mud at the bank of the half-full Bewl water reservoir in Kent


UK Drought: The Real Problem And The Real Solution

Fortunately, despite the fears of some newspapers, we're nowhere near the last resort, say experts.

"It sounds a little bit like scaremongering to me," said Justin Taberham, director of policy at the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM), dryly remarking on the specific story that appeared in the Daily Mirror citing the possibility of mass water imports.

But that's no reason not to worry, he says. The UK is facing a water crisis and it'll take more than a few days of rain to fix it.

"The situation at the moment is not good, in terms of the fact we've had two really dry winters, and pretty dry periods in the interim… but what interests me is the long term - and how we actually solve the situation."

Solving that problem is something in which a lot of people have an interest. Quick-fixes suggested in recent days include encouraging the creation of private boreholes, which can be drilled on private land without a licence, but which the Environment Agency warns simply take water from the existing supply.

Mass infrastructure projects, which would see water transported from regions with a surplus to the south east, have also been promoted. The government proposed an 'inter-connected' strategy in a 2012 white paper, and a recent announcement by Severn Trent that it will sell 30m litres of water a day by transporting it from the Midlands to the East of England suggests there is some life in the idea.

More controversially, John Elfed Jones, who is a former chairman and CEO of Welsh Water, has argued that the region should sell its "white gold" like "oil" to the parched English counties.

Unfortunately there are very clear and intractable problems with creating an extended "water grid", Taberham points out.

"Water is heavy, it's hard to pipe and it's really expensive in terms of energy," he said.

"There is no way that it would be sensible, either using tankers or great big pipes from Scotland or any other part of the country to the south east."

Above: it's been a wet few days but the causes of the drought go back more than a year


'The Public Don't Seem To Understand And Value Water'

So if the UK's future is neither a parched water-free wasteland or a futuristic aquatic paradise, what is it? And how do we get there?

The answer is simple, Taberham says, if a bit unexciting: be sensible.

"The only real answer in the UK is a more integrated approach where we think about water as a more valuable resource," he says.

"We have this public attitude that 'open your tap and it's there'. The public don't seem to understand and value water."

Taberham points to the example of southern Australia, which has much less rainfall than the UK but which captures - and uses - much more water per capita.

"If you have water coming down, you grab it," he says. "For every drop of water they plan where it's going to go, how they can grab it and take it back into ground water, store it and get it back into boreholes."

The key for the UK, Taberham argues, is to introduce simple measures such as directing rain water to areas of vegetation so it can soak into the groundwater, and not straight into drainage pipes. He also proposes compulsory metering for all properties, not just new builds, and a new pricing model which would see non-vital water charged at a much higher rate.

Currently around 40% of households have water meters says Owfat, and the aim is to have half with meters by 2015. But Taberham is among those calling for the industry to move quicker, and with more urgency.

"There are a lot of countries doing it right - it's about time we did," he says.

Some economists go further. Tim Leunig, chief economist at CentreForum, argues that the rich should be able to pay for extra water for gardening and paddling pools - and that the money raised should be paid to private business as rewards for using less. Under his plan, water companies would offer compensation to commercial water users to cut usage, and fund it by charging families a premium above basic needs.

"If gardeners are willing to pay for more water to be collected or desalinated, we should collect or desalinate more water. Just as if people are willing to pay the cost of producing more chocolate biscuits we produce more chocolate biscuits," he said.

"You don't want someone having a swimming pool and someone going thirsty and dying," Leunig said. "That's clearly not good. But so long as everybody has everything they need for every possible version of basic needs then the rest of it to me seems to be up for grabs."

'Water: The Social Context'

There are obvious limits of the role of markets in water supply, Leunig admits. Allowing water companies to put up prices in a drought would simply give them an incentive to not build enough reservoirs, for instance. But if price increases go directly to ensuring adequate supplies - whether through reducing usage or increasing supply - they should do it.

"If they put up prices in order to pay someone else to use less water, that's fine - they're not gaining. Or if they put up prices to pay for a reservoir, the water company isn't gaining because it's all going in the cost of the reservoir or desalination plant," he said.

As for Wales selling water to England, Leunig sees no problem with that either. "After all the people of Wales bank with banks based in London," he says: "And the people of London charge them for banking."

Judging by the public reaction to Leunig's proposal, however, the idea of charging a premium for paddling pools still runs counter to how we think about water.

"He wants to be able to pay to have his paddling pool filled and the rest of society can go hang," one Telegraph commenter wrote. "What a horrible self-indulgent world you inhabit," wrote another.

For consumer groups, Leunig's proposal underestimates the "social" value of water.

"He's an economist and he's thinking in cost terms," said Deryk Hall, head of policy and research at the Consumer Council For Water. "But one of the things we think is important is to think in social terms."

"[Block tariffs] have unintended consequences for large families. Basic needs for individual families change. Companies don't have that sort of information, and if they did they've have all sorts of difficulties around data protection.

"This plan would also have unintended consequences for customers with medical conditions - those who use large amounts of water, as a result of skin conditions for example."

Those water restrictions and hosepipe bans that are in place are there simply because there isn't enough to go around, Hall points out. Leunig argues companies reducing wastage could make up the shortfall, but Hall isn't convinced.

"The issue is that the amount of water that we have in what is meant to be a fairly wet country is a lot lower than it has been for quite some time… If people are going to use more water and are willing to pay for that - and obviously Mr Leunig is quite clearly willing to pay extra for filling a paddling pool - our supply could run out or get down to critical levels - and you end up with standpipes in the street."

'Let It Rain: The Global Water Crisis'

Ultimately the only thing that can reduce a drought in the short term is rain, experts admit. And lots of it.

In the meantime, people have to be prepared to make sacrifices, and realise the value of something that seems like it should be free - but isn't.

Environmental campaigners agree, especially in a global context.

For it isn't only the UK facing a water crisis - if anything, we're making it worse. The 'virtual water' involved in making the food, clothes and other products we import from around the world mean that the UK only produces about two-fifths of all the water it uses.

"By importing water intensive products such as cotton, food (like rice and sugarcane) and industrial products, countries are having an impact on water basins outside their territory," WWF's senior water advisor, Ashok Chapagain said.

"A study published by WWF in 2008 shows that about 60% of our water footprint is outside the UK."

So before we worry about importing water by the tanker-load, maybe we should consider the water we're already wasting around the world?

"Water scarcity affects at least 2.7 billion people in 201 river basins, for at least one month a year," Chapagain said.

"International trade and the globalisation of the supply chain contribute to making water scarcity a global issue."

FOLLOW WORLD

For those with an apocalyptic imagination and a tabloid subscription, the future of drought-stricken Britain seems increasingly bleak. The statistics alone read like the introduction to a sci-fi fi...
For those with an apocalyptic imagination and a tabloid subscription, the future of drought-stricken Britain seems increasingly bleak. The statistics alone read like the introduction to a sci-fi fi...
 
 
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05:23 AM on 05/12/2012
Do you think adding at least 3 Million extra people to UKs population in the last 15 years has a little bit to do with the shortage ?, And which Labour minister said " I wont lose any sleep if UKs population hits 70 Million ? Its going to get even more thirsty .
11:36 PM on 04/27/2012
The UK is very FAR from running out of water. It is only in the southeast where a "drought" has been announced by our Environment Agency. Keen to promote the lost cause of AGW, they have tried to introduce rationing of water across the region. Unfortunately for them, the rain came pouring down shortly after they made their announcement and has done so ever since.

There are two main reasons why water is short in the south-east (region around London):
1. Uncontrolled mass immigration to the area.
2. Ancient (1940s) infrastructure which has never been renewed. There are far too few reservoirs.
People will say it's because we privatised our water services, but there should have been requirements from Govt to renew and extend the water network and there were none.

The EA has since issued flood warnings for the whole country. People directly affected were informed by one of those irritating automated phone calls. Sandbags "were available" but only if you collected and transported them yourself. Floodgates "were available", but only if you paid for them.

People are angry and full of disbelief, but who cares about their opinion? After all, they pay the Govt money on pain of imprisonment and have no redress if the bureaucrats decide to play political games with it, so more fool them.
08:47 PM on 04/23/2012
Drought and flooding has been around since the
beginning of time, the human race has always survived,
and no doubt will survive again.
No doubt many lives were lost due to these events
and still are, in several parts of the world.
We must take action soon if loss of life is to be avoided,
in the future.
It is an utter disgrace that in this day and age
people are dying from lack of water.
wes
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Micheal Frisbie
11:14 PM on 04/22/2012
if men, and especially politicians would quite trying to recapture the delusion of a wonderful past... and spend more time on planning, preparing, and building for the future, then our greatest years would all be ahead of us, not behind us. aqueducts from the mississippi river (which floods every year) to the west would alleviate the problems of many future droughts and make our lands far more productive year round.
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georgemorris61
Life is a journey,not a trip
07:25 PM on 04/22/2012
Don't worry Bloaks, we have plenty in the good ole U.S.of A it's just a little more per gallon than the gas you buy.
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waldopepper
I'd tell you all about me if you were my friend.
09:55 PM on 04/22/2012
You'll be invading Canada to get it.
06:37 PM on 04/22/2012
we run out of water, we all die
06:24 PM on 04/22/2012
UK is running out of alot...........of everything it seems,,like many of the first world
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Lord Justice Wolf
05:34 PM on 04/22/2012
I have a better idea? Virtually every person I know pay's surface water drainage on there water bill?? This has always confused me as if surface water is rain water which flows of your property into council highways then surely this is an act of god and as such shouldnt be chargeable or at least they should bill the church who represents god? But my real point is.......these average estimates were worked out on average rainfall years ago? By there own admission over the past three years at least we have suffered less and less rain ? Therefore shouldn't we demand a refund on our water bills? The estimates will be grossly wrong and based on surface rain years ago?
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GingerlyColors
No will to change it, no right to criticize it
05:24 PM on 04/22/2012
Here we go again! The truth is that this country is awash with water and there is no reason why we cannot have a national water grid so we can pipe water from the wet areas to the dry areas. After all, we can pipe oil thousands of miles so why not water? It is the same with Africa where foreign aid should be spent on piping water from the many large lakes there. Unfortunately foreign aid ends up getting spent on weapons and lavish lifestyles for the ruling elite in those countries. In Britain the water companies should be given an ultimatum to get their acts together and start looking after the customers than their chief executives and shareholders or have most of their shares siezed by the government thus returning majority control to the government. I would sieze the shares from the big shareholders but not the small investors, unlike the renationalisation of Railtrack where all the shareholders lost their shares with little compensation.
03:26 PM on 04/24/2012
dear dear these water companies thanks to the shortsited government are all private companies, they wont risk sending theire water south for the fear of themselves having a shortage.

the goverment would need to take back into public ownership all the water companies to force that, i it wont happen,

even the water companies who have plenty stocks are only ever 60 days away from running out
03:31 PM on 04/22/2012
All houses should be fitted with a water butt, to catch
water from the roof, this would be enough for all the garden needs.
These fittings can be bought from your local plumber merchants,
you just have to cut into the downpipe.
wes
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Drg40
Representative Democracy is all we have.
06:34 PM on 04/22/2012
Well you could argue that new houses should have a way of collecting all rain water falling on the roof and collecting it in some sort of tank. And then you would begin to think about whether each home should have somewhere to park a car (to reduce on-street parking) and not a "garage" which is intended for use as a storeroom because modern houses have such small rooms there no room for storage space and, before you know where you are you've begun to talk about a real house building policy and not a laisez faire developers profit regime supervised by Grabbit and Run, those well know bankers con artists, who contribute so warmly to Tory party funds.
07:28 PM on 04/23/2012
Yes drg40, it is the same old question, where do
we draw the line.
The good point about a water butt is that people
with a water meter installed, would save few pounds
over the year.
It can be a slippery slope though, as you state.
wes
06:51 PM on 04/22/2012
When it rains here in Glasgow ( every week ), my 100 litre water butt fills in about an hour.
I have to then drain it off because the ground is already soaked.
I only have it, to stop the runoff water from damaging my shed.
10:40 AM on 04/23/2012
Yes D,W,T,,
I seen water butts with an overflow, which when
full returns the excess water back down the downpipe.
Staying in Kilmarnock, not far from you, i also see
more than my fair share of rain.
Look around, you may find these fittings.
wes
02:25 PM on 04/22/2012
Solusion for this problem? Hope it rain and fill the nation with water or bore hole in your home for all uses except drinking water.
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rg9rts
Carpe Diem! This aint rehearsal
02:10 PM on 04/22/2012
If you think that we have an international circus over oil, just wait till the water wars begin. With the non replenishment of glaciers occurring planet wide we will see shortages in Asia, the sub continent, South America well you get the idea,you can learn to get around oil shortages but water? It will I'm sure get very ugly.
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Reality always bites
Sometimes just a bit peckish
08:53 PM on 04/22/2012
Planet wide glaciers.
Surely they appear at the poles.
If you could bother to keep up- They melt a bit in summer and grow a gain in the winter!
Rainfall happens when the water in seas, lakes and rivers is evaporated into the atmosphere.
That is caused by the heat of the sun.
Shortages of water in Asia, except during the monsoon season.
The problem is storage!
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rg9rts
Carpe Diem! This aint rehearsal
10:17 PM on 04/22/2012
If you had bothered to keep up you would realize that the Himalayas are where the glaciers for the Ganges and Mekong among many other rivers are located and they are NOT replenishing themselves. Here in the US we have Glacier National Park which in the near future will be glacial in name only. The question now becomes what will we do when not millions but billions of people will have no water. Our local republicans of course deny that this will happen. Time will tell and if I'm right then there will be hell to pay across the planet. So sad......and the beat goes on....
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01:02 PM on 04/22/2012
The Uber rich in the USA are buying water as fast as they can. THIS IS A FACT and don't expect them to share it at anything less than a premium.
01:11 PM on 04/22/2012
I hear they are buying it specially de-hydrated for ease of storage, then they only have to add water to reconstitute it...
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01:58 PM on 04/22/2012
Thats why the Bush family two years ago bought a 1500 acre lake in Bolivia or was it to ensure the irrigation of thier opium plantations?
12:54 PM on 04/22/2012
With all the technology now available, surely there is technology to purify sea water and rid the whole world from drought...it is ironic that any drought exists on a planet that is mostly water.
01:18 PM on 04/22/2012
Is it ironic...or is it man's natural arrogance and greed for power and control that makes him fight incessant civil wars and engage in political chicanery instead of using his resources usefully?
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02:14 PM on 04/22/2012
Desalination. But, there needs to be support infrastructure to transport the finished product where it's needed. Also, it is energy intensive.
12:47 PM on 04/22/2012
unless we get wise and let them know they work for us and not the other way round as this government do