Andrew Tyrie: The British Economy Is 'Not Good' And The IMF May Not Be Able To Fix The Eurozone

The Huffington Post UK  |  By Posted: 26/04/2012 10:54 Updated: 26/04/2012 13:01

The chair of the influential Commons Treasury committee Andrew Tyrie has described the prospects for the British economy as "not good", because it is at grave risk of contamination from further crises in the eurozone.

Tyrie, a Tory MP and former critic of the coalition's growth strategy, acknowledged that since his remarks last October the government had done a "great deal" to appease his concerns. But he warned: "They now face that huge decade-long effort of implementing it."

Speaking at an event in the City of London organised by the Thatcherite think-tank the Centre for Policy Studies, Tyrie warned that the eurozone crisis was far from over, characterising efforts by eurozone leaders to stabilise the currency as "flawed" and little more than "sticking plaster bailouts".

The latest attempt to shore up the eurozone came last month, when EU finance ministers approved a second Greek bailout package worth €130bn. However Tyrie warned that this bailout had only bought the eurozone time, and would only be required again if a more permanent solution wasn't found.

He told a gathering of business leaders and journalists: "The eurozone will remain in difficulties because it does not have transfer of payments from high productivity areas to low productivity areas, and lacks a mechanism for ejecting states which can't function within the system any more."

"Instability in the eurozone threatens the prosperity of the UK, the region and possibly the globe. This crisis is multi-dimensional, involving multi-bank defaults, sovereign default and potential contagion to other sovereign countries outside the eurozone."

Tyrie suggested the danger was acknowledged privately but had not been made public, saying: "An unpublished compliance report by the EU has warned that Greece will have to have a fiscal squeeze next year equivalent to 5.5% GDP. In other words the path to sustainability lacks credibility.

"Another report entitled 'preliminary debt sustainability analysis' - which looks suspiciously like an IMF document - suggests the Greeks will experience further recession, remain accident prone and lack further growth."

Tyrie, who has been publicly supportive of George Osborne's decision to lend a further £10bn to the IMF last week - told the audience that only the IMF had the economic credibility to resolve the Eurozone, but that "their resources so far have been woefully inadequate."

"The IMF is certainly not perfect, and it's possible that this crisis is beyond even them. But is a great deal better than nothing. The IMF now needs to show its toughness in negotiations which has secured its reputation for the past half a century.

"The IMF is currently treating the ECB and the European Commission as partners in resolving this discussions. But these bodies have an existential conflict of interest. They should be part of the solution, but they are also part of the problem," he concluded.

The next political challenge within the eurozone are Greek parliamentary elections taking place on 6 May, with opinion polls suggesting parties which oppose the government's austerity plan could do very well.

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The chair of the influential Commons Treasury committee Andrew Tyrie has described the prospects for the British economy as "not good", because it is at grave risk of contamination from further crises...
The chair of the influential Commons Treasury committee Andrew Tyrie has described the prospects for the British economy as "not good", because it is at grave risk of contamination from further crises...
 
 
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
10:04 AM on 04/27/2012
Thanks to 13 years of Labour, Britain (government and people) is one of the most indebted countries in the world, if not the most indebted country in the world. But you would not know it because the coalition government has been trying to outdo Labour to get rid of its "Nasty Party" image smear.

Before leaving offrice, Labour upped the foreign aid budget and the coalition government hiked it again when they got into power. Despite all the talk of cuts, the coalition government has been spending money like a lottery winner on speed. £millions on this, £billions on that. Who do they think we are? They insist on spending money we do not have and giving it to countries that will never pay it back. They think that money grows on trees. The people of this country deserve better than being flung on the dole and out of their homes, through no fault of their own, by a bunch of charlatans who are more concerned about their image than the country they are supposed to represent.
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Michaelxx
10:00 PM on 04/26/2012
get ready for a load of trouble from police and military
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Blockem1
When will our politicians start putting policies
07:27 PM on 04/26/2012
The euro is so over , I've been working in Italy and in France and have friends in Greece ,it's desperate in Greece with food kitchens the norm , in Spain house prices have fallen by half and yet their banks have yet to disclose their true valuations ,the same in Ireland .in Italy they are expecting a collapse .. Every one wants out of the euro but the bankers and politisions .. Every day they just keep extending the deadline and keep printing money despite the fact that no one wants this mess to continue and the sad part is ,it is actually fixable . We desperately need some leadership and we need to punish those that are responsible for this god almighty mess!
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Lord Justice Wolf
06:36 PM on 04/26/2012
The Euro was dead in the water when they started it? It was introduced as a test......a trial? Only people invested far to much into it and now its dead..........there comes to mind.....throwing good money at a sinking ship??? To many proud economists and business leaders who don't want to admit they are wrong. The Euro will collapse, its already a sunk ship never mind sinking. There is only one solution for the human race to survive this chaos, but not one rich person will see it done. Because it would not benefit the rich, it would only save the world and save the poor starving dying people? Why do the rich want to do that? No, I'm sorry but we are doomed unless one man.......one stands tall and takes hold and speaks for all mankind?
lastpost
see biography
03:02 PM on 04/26/2012
"the prospects for the British economy as "not good"
Somewhere between Iraqi, and a hard place.

"the Thatcherite think-tank"
Sounds like Maggie’s answer to the miners. Al la Syria’s to their minors.

"this bailout had"
vaporised into thin air, like all the rest. Odd that the Banks were bust. So we had to borrow to bail them out. Who did we borrow from?

"The eurozone will remain in difficulties because it does not have"
a basis in reality. It is a dream of the few and the nightmare of the many. A tower of babble.

"This crisis is multi-dimensional, involving multi-bank defaults, sovereign default and"
unaccounted for transfers of biblical proportions.

"the danger was acknowledged privately but had not been made public "
The possible French electoral outcome may have prompted connection of the dots.

"Greece will have to have a fiscal squeeze next year equivalent to 5.5% GDP. In other words"
if they have no bread, they will have to eat air.

"an IMF document – suggests"
opening vaults and saying “help yourself”?

"only the IMF had the economic credibility"
But no culpability?

"The IMF is certainly not perfect"
Except in regard to financial storms.

"They should be part of the solution, but they are also part of the problem"
Seems the lifeboats on the SS EU are cast from concrete.
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beenzrgud
Can't say what I'd like to here.
02:53 PM on 04/26/2012
" Tyrie warned that the eurozone crisis was far from over "

There's a good argument that the crisis hasn't even really got going yet. The worst is yet to come!
02:40 PM on 04/26/2012
The alternative to collapse and reconstruction is to be shackled by austerity policies which commit us to a path of slow decline.

Keep in mind that a 5% emergency asset tax on the wealthiest could pay off all government debt in Europe in five years. And at the end of using 25% of wealth of the wealthy to pay off the debt the wealthy would still be ---- wealthy. Someone worth 8 million would be worth 6 million. NOT communism. NOT a tragedy.

And they would be in a much better position to become wealthier.

The refusal of governments to asset tax the wealthy to resolve this crisis shows how superficial such things as ''patriotism'' and ''citizenship'' are. They mean nothing - NOTHING - to the greedy wealthy.
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casual agent
Advocate for social justice
03:52 AM on 04/27/2012
..Great Post eric'...But do you remember when one of CaMorons' aids' pulled Andrew Tyrie' aside at the last Tory Conference'...Wonder what they told him?
01:29 PM on 04/26/2012
give us the vote on EU NOW
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
01:09 PM on 04/26/2012
So why are we lending money we do not have to someone who cannot pay it back?
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
09:05 AM on 04/27/2012
They might as well just pour it down the drain like they do with Afghanistan, foreign aid, welfare benefits etc. Anyone would think that money grows on trees