Political Week Ahead: Blame It On The Weatherman - 29th April 2012

The Huffington Post UK  |  By Posted: 30/04/2012 07:40 Updated: 30/04/2012 07:40

Since much of the country is more obsessed with the weather than anything else at the moment, HuffPost has abandoned its usual weekly look-ahead in favour of a political weather forecast.

The outlook for the Department of Culture Media and Sport remains uncertain with squally showers continuing to blow in, although it's not clear whether or not a mini-tornado could suddenly pick up Jeremy Hunt and throw him out off his office.

A sudden revelation could easily cause him to resign, but what's more likely is that he'll be ground down by a relentless battering of hail from Labour, amid concerns that future policies in his department could be utterly undermined by the hot air that continues to waft in from the Leveson inquiry.

The decision for David Cameron - which he still hasn't really made - is whether to batten down the hatches or ditch his culture secretary. Complicating his decision is a calculation on whether getting rid of Hunt would just mean the pressure over cosying up to Murdoch will be focused on him alone.

Overall the outlook remains squally for everyone in British politics, and those affected by it. Although commentators have already dismissed it as a damp squib, a report by the Culture Media and Sport committee on phone hacking, published on Tuesday, could send temperatures soaring at the east London premises of News International - if they conclude that Parliament was misled by senior executives in previous evidence to the committee.

MPs' ultimate sanction is a call for contempt of Parliament proceedings to be brought, though that hasn't happened for hundreds of years and would be the political equivalent of a typhoon. However it's thought likely that the committee won't go that far, since it would potentially complicate the findings of Leveson and possibly the Metropolitan Police's own investigation.

While it will be largely blustery in national politics for the first part of the week, we certainly can expect a very cold front with accompanying gale-force winds sweeping into Tory and Lib-Dem areas this Thursday night, damaging gusts which could uproot hundreds of Tory councillors and bring down vital Lib Dem power lines.

It could take quite some time for Nick Clegg's followers to clean up after the storm, however these gales have been predicted for quite some time, and the emergency services at the parties' central offices have already issued a severe weather warning.

Unfortunately we're less confident in our forecast for the London area, where current projections suggest things could stay calm for the Tories - but the most recent modelling has shown an increasing likelihood of winds of change blowing through City Hall, potentially blowing Boris Johnson off his bike.

Funnily enough the London Mayoral election could easy be influenced by the real weather - where the forecast is just as unpredictable but is likely to be sunshine and showers. In a poll where an expected low turnout could throw the whole election either way, the ability of both Boris and Ken Livingstone to get their supporters to brave the rain could be crucial.

And there are other uncertainties for Labour - we're expecting a mixture of sunshine and showers across northern Britain, with the prospect of a washout in Glasgow where a Scottish National Party storm is brewing.

This raises the prospect of an area of high pressure developing directly over Ed Miliband's office on Friday morning, if Labour councillors on Glasgow City Council find themselves suddenly out in the rain.

The long-term forecast? Pack a brolly.

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Since much of the country is more obsessed with the weather than anything else at the moment, HuffPost has abandoned its usual weekly look-ahead in favour of a political weather forecast. The outlo...
Since much of the country is more obsessed with the weather than anything else at the moment, HuffPost has abandoned its usual weekly look-ahead in favour of a political weather forecast. The outlo...
 
 
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09:43 AM on 05/01/2012
Ok - those in the know - list here in plain compact English the difference between UKIP and BNP ........... I need educating and explanation ;)
09:52 PM on 04/30/2012
I vote not necessarily for any one party in particular but against the party who I think have or will cause me the most personal damage. Currently I can say that I wont be voting Tory. I seem to be voting against a political party rather than for one.
09:48 PM on 04/30/2012
UKIP for a new england, lets get rid of the political dross and millionaires who bleed the ordinary people dry.
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04:53 PM on 05/02/2012
"UKIP for a new england"
I thought UKIP were a UK party, based on the name at least. Maybe I got it wrong. Maybe they are an English party, but if that is so, shouldn't they start by getting honest with the name if nothing else?
Or.... maybe its you who thinks that UK and England are one and the same.
12:53 AM on 05/03/2012
i am sorry, you have completly lost me there !
09:01 PM on 04/30/2012
I will never vote for any of the 3 main parties. I hope we have UKIP standing in my area or I'm afraid I won't even bother to vote.
08:53 PM on 04/30/2012
As a past Tory voter I hope they Tory's get a hammering. Why you might ask. Simple, Cameron and that smirk Osborne need a big, big wake up call. The other major problem is boy Clegg. Unfortunately there is not a good one among them. It is UKIP for me.
08:44 PM on 04/30/2012
I hope a rain comes and washes the tories, labour and lib dems out of office!
Imagine if UKIP overtook lib dems in polls, shot across their bows eh!
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07:25 PM on 04/30/2012
I suspect UKIP was a goverment invention in order to provide a safety valve for the EU haters , How ever if enough people vote it could take on a direction unforseen by its architects. So my fellow Brits give it a go------------- Vote UKIP
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carneliancrystal
Do I believe all the propaganda of course I do
08:03 PM on 04/30/2012
hear hear
08:06 PM on 04/30/2012
I already have. (I've got a postal vote.)
05:16 PM on 04/30/2012
From reading some of these comments it is quite evident that political history is not one of the better understood subjects, and you are better off not voting. Should you feel the need to vote I suggest you concider your most beneficial local candidate, and not a political party of which you know nothing about. Leave that for a General Election, and a victor who never keeps to their manifesto.
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
06:12 PM on 04/30/2012
I have always said that in local elections the people to vote for are either independants or rate payers organisations, people with no affilaition to the national parties, we in Cumbria have suffered the folly of Councillors with national affiliations ignoring their own area to follow a party line, then they have the cheek to knock on your door again in four or five years time. They dont know the word shame. None of them, its self self self, £8k a year minimum for Cumbria County Council and around £15k if you get a committee or two. Not bad for what was voluntary work a generation or two ago
04:55 PM on 04/30/2012
Meanwhile it all looks bright and sunny for the BNP :-) When are people going to understand that the BNP are the only truthful party there is ??? Why do people go on about their " immigration policy " when they have lots of other policies that make perfect sense.

Mandatory 5 years prison sentence for anyone caught with a knife...
Captital Punishment brought back for murders, peadophiles, terrorists...
Abolish " Political Correctness " and bring back real " Freedom Of Speech "
Bring back daily Christian assemblies to all schools in the UK
Restore the earnings link with pensions
Make joint custody of children the norm in divorce cases
Reintroduction of the married man’s allowance
The banning of the ritual slaughter of animals without pre-stunning, and the sale of such meat

See there is alot more to the BNP's policies than immigration, and all I believe are honest and sensible.
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clownzozo
Magician, Novelist and an Angry Old Git
05:06 PM on 04/30/2012
Sounds good to me
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jimbraid1
05:35 PM on 04/30/2012
And me
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
06:15 PM on 04/30/2012
Hm, I think it is the image of the head shaved thugs covered with tattoos in the background, especially the ones with boots on, not my idea of democracy, sorry I'll chance UKIP, useless or not they dont look like they will beat people up of maim them for disagreeing.
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mirola
Read between the lines
07:28 PM on 04/30/2012
Parties like this usually start at the fringes of the political establishment, ranting, raving and kicking at the established bigger parties. Whenl they get bigger and become 'accepted political parties' they usually moderate their tone 'fitting in with the rest'.
04:51 PM on 04/30/2012
sorry ned forgot thatcher sold everything .nothing left to invest in
04:49 PM on 04/30/2012
to ned 222/ you forgot a world ression. caused by greedy tory bankers
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hearthammer
If left is right and right is wrong, decide!
04:51 PM on 04/30/2012
and Labour ineptitude.........
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
06:23 PM on 04/30/2012
Love you, great three word answer.
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04:16 PM on 04/30/2012
Most Lib dem councillors are becoming independent instead in order to keep themselves in a job! That is what happened at the last council elections when the Lib Dems snuggled up to the Tories and now other councils are having elections I would suspect some Tory councillors will also follow suite instead of being unemployed. Give them a taste of their own medicine remember who they are and don't back them!
04:30 PM on 04/30/2012
Thats the ticket Libs, instead of embracing power, run for cover and consign your party to the the never-never land from whence it came! Pathetic!
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
06:25 PM on 04/30/2012
Lets hope the locals can sniff them out there is an aroma floats around with them, its like sh, you know what.
03:50 PM on 04/30/2012
I think Labour and Conservatives could be in for a shock. We're fed up with the lot of them.
Time for a bloody nose. Come on you UKIPs!!
04:28 PM on 04/30/2012
No way we should replace one lot of right wing arrogant posh boys with another lot out of the same stable!
05:41 PM on 04/30/2012
Then who do you suggest? Labour got us into this.
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
06:25 PM on 04/30/2012
Rally round the flag rally round again, vote UKIP, A PARTY THAT CARES FOR BRITAIN.
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NOSHER
03:42 PM on 04/30/2012
the 3 big parties should be sacked and give someone else a chance
03:39 PM on 04/30/2012
anyone who votes torys or libdeads, needs a labotomy, they have broken every promise they made in their manifesto, so give them a kicking , labours not any better so vote for anyone else its the only way to send a message to the lot of them.
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SATCHMAN99
03:49 PM on 04/30/2012
Don't you need a brain for a Labotomy? That rules out Tory and Libdem voters from that one then LOL!!!
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
06:29 PM on 04/30/2012
UKIP