Political Look Ahead - Reshuffle Speculation Ramps Up

The Huffington Post UK  |  By Posted: 14/05/2012 10:27 Updated: 14/05/2012 14:23

We were already speculating a lot about a potential reshuffle in David Cameron's cabinet, now Peter Hain's resignation as shadow Welsh secretary has ramped up the speculation and gossip that Ed Miliband is about to move his team around, too.

It'd be a surprise if Miliband were to move his most senior shadow ministers. Taking Ed Balls out of his Treasury brief seems unthinkable; Balls' currency is high at the moment since many of his economic predictions over the past couple of years have come to pass. Equally Yvette Cooper serves as a good foil for Theresa May at the despatch box as shadow home secretary - she talks the talk and has held the Home Office to close account over Abu Qatada. And where else would you put her?

Moving Chuka Umunna out of Business Innovation and Skills brief would be harsh. Although he was seen as being over-promoted when he was picked to shadow Vince Cable, he's growing into the job. Andy Burnham comes across as an effective shadow health secretary who seems highly engaged in what he's doing. And as a former health secretary in the Brown government he knows the brief inside out (including where the bodies are buried).

chris bryant

Chris Bryant, a fierce watchdog of Theresa May And Jeremy Hunt

It looks more likely that in the short term there'll be a very limited shadow cabinet reshuffle, with someone coming into replace Hain at the top. On the assumption that the Welsh brief should be done by someone with Welsh connections the three favourites would be Chris Bryant - currently shadow immigration minister, Kevin Brennan, a highly capable MP currently working on the Business brief, or as a wildcard Owen Smith, who's already done work on the Welsh brief for Labour but who currently works in Ed Balls' treasury team.

kevin brennan

All-round nice guy Kevin Brennan

All three hold Welsh seats. Bryant is the more experienced but a lot of people are throwing their weight behind Smith.

Who will replace Peter Hain?

  • Kevin Brennan

  • Chris Bryant

  • Owen Smith

  • Someone Else

Predict it!
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Elsewhere there's been a lot of speculation that Liam Byrne could be leaving the shadow cabinet. It would be nice to see either Angela Eagle or Rachel Reeves given promotions but although some are calling for a major shake-up of the Labour front bench, most expect a limited reshuffle sometime in the next day or so, with a more widespread overhaul taking place later in the year.

Meanwhile over on the Tory side there's still a lot of confusion about when a cabinet reshuffle could take place, and how big a switch-around there might be.

The latest gossip (and that's all it is) is that Cheryl Gillan has been told her job is safe as Welsh secretary. Apart from some niggling over High Speed 2 she tends to keep her head down. Theresa May appears to have survived the Abu Qatada furore, even though it's obvious she messed up the date of his arrest last month.

It's difficult to get rid of Vince Cable when he called out the Murdochs 18 months ago and is now seen as vindicated, but Ken Clarke is looking absolutely nackered and increasingly a haunting figure from Tory governments past. Putting him out to pasture and replacing him with policing minister Nick Herbert would seem like an easy and obvious fit.

Cameron has been told that Iain Duncan Smith won't do any other job than DWP, we're told, so it's difficult to move him, but Caroline Spelman is seen as a fairly useless Environment Secretary and Andrew Mitchell is said to be fairly bored over at DfID.

The rumours about Baroness Warsi change every single day. Last week the prevailing view was she'd end up getting Environment, the latest is she's on the verge of chucking it all in and going back to Dewesbury and returning to legal practice!

At the moment it's looking more likely that there'll be a big switch among junior Tory ministers, but again there are problems wherever you look. People have speculated that Mark Harper could move from constitutional reform to Health, but who would help Nick Clegg gets Lords Reform through the Commons? Harper makes no secret that he thinks he's capable of taking on a bigger beast than Lords reform, but can they afford to lose him?

The timetables for the reshuffles keep changing too - Miliband will have to make at least some moves either on Monday or Tuesday. Cameron can afford to wait for Jeremy Hunt's appearance before Leveson, most likely. Unless of course further details emerge of communications with News International lobbyists in the meantime.... if enough comes out to fatally damage Jeremy Hunt, it's not inconceivable that we'll see changes among both top teams by the end of the week.

Who will leave the Cabinet?

  • Jeremy Hunt

  • Kenneth Clarke

  • Theresa May

  • Vince Cable

  • Someone else

Predict it!
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We were already speculating a lot about a potential reshuffle in David Cameron's cabinet, now Peter Hain's resignation as shadow Welsh secretary has ramped up the speculation and gossip that Ed Miliba...
We were already speculating a lot about a potential reshuffle in David Cameron's cabinet, now Peter Hain's resignation as shadow Welsh secretary has ramped up the speculation and gossip that Ed Miliba...
 
 
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Lord Elpus
If you're going through hell, keep going
14:44 on 20/05/2012
I predict that David Davis won't be involved - not a career polician and not from a public school either. Shame, he's one of the few who can get a message over which is why he's still viewed as a threat by DC.
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popart
retired school teacher
08:26 on 20/05/2012
England needs to become a more willing part of the EU and should adopt the Euro currency as proof of it's committment to a strong European economy which in turn would be good for England. It should also get rid of the Monarchy and lose those silly white wigs in court rooms...
Male comedians should also stop dressing up as women.
20:08 on 14/05/2012
We can only hope they re-shuffle so much, that they end up shuffling themselves out of Power.
08:57 on 15/05/2012
You've obviously a very short memory after the previous 13 years
19:05 on 14/05/2012
"Ed balls's predictions have come true over the last 2 years " Who's writing this s--t? . He should move to the ministry of roadsweeping.
Lord Elpus
If you're going through hell, keep going
14:41 on 20/05/2012
and lead by example?
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
18:47 on 14/05/2012
Cameron and Miliband look quite similar, hang on they sound quite similar, hang on they are quite similar, neither have a bloody clue.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
17:15 on 14/05/2012
They've scraped the bottom of the barrel to get the politicians of today, there would be little difference if Labour swapped jobs with Tory MP's or Lib Dem MP's. They are all a shower and I wouldn't waste my time voting for them. The country deserves better.
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
18:48 on 14/05/2012
UKIP mate
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Gunderan
Who let the Libertarians out without supervision?
16:12 on 14/05/2012
"Ed Ball's has not been right about anything in the last two years or the years before that when he was chancellor.If Milliband is serious then he needs to get rid of the Blairite lobbyist paid for people like Ed Balls,Alan Johnson and the rest Tories need to get rid of Camron and Osborne and people like Dorries too.
We really need some politicians with ideas that work not the American Republican austerity for the tory's or the george Bush policies enacted by Labour..
Why cant we follow ideas that work?President Obama manges growth in GDP with no help yet Tory's put us in a double dip reccession?
Time for Milliband to stand up and bring new ideas and new people onto the front bench not people who will take money and attention from business or the unions.
Lib/dems should take the hit they deserve and leave the coalition.It will only get worse for them over the next three years and they could be using that time to rebuild and refresh thier ideas.
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
18:48 on 14/05/2012
He needs to chop the lot then sack himself
20:34 on 14/05/2012
Lib-Dems, Liberals, call them what you will have not had an original idea since Lloyd-George, the gentleman who knew every Welshman's father.
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Gunderan
Who let the Libertarians out without supervision?
21:33 on 14/05/2012
Niether have the tories since the victorian age hehehehee.Labour not since the 50's lol
15:46 on 14/05/2012
THE TORIES MISSED A GREAT OPPORTUNITY THEY SHOULD HAVE CHOSE DAVID DAVIES AS THE P M, BUT HE'S NOT IN TORIE CLICK.
18:17 on 14/05/2012
That couldn't possibly have worked. I met him on a number of occasions ... he is a conviction politician with a high degree of intelligence and a firm moral purpose. A clever, honest, decent, person, So you see he wouldn't fit the mould of these "modern" career politicians at all would he ?..
22:26 on 14/05/2012
I see what you mean ,
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
18:49 on 14/05/2012
Spot on MEL kay
18:57 on 14/05/2012
.......And Alan Johnson would walk the next General Election as Labour Leader - I can't help feeling Miliband would struggle - he's not good at the despatch box
15:35 on 14/05/2012
It doesn't matter who replaces who , there isn't one of them who has a clue about anything in the real world for the simple reason none of them live in it. They don't have to because they are all on the gravy train.
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
18:50 on 14/05/2012
The truth makes ne cry, sob sob sob, you are so right my friend.
14:58 on 14/05/2012
Keep Milliband & Balls where they are then tories win in 2015
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
18:50 on 14/05/2012
Miliband and Balls cannot see that, Is Tony Wedgewood Benn still about town,
08:56 on 15/05/2012
You mean Lord Stansgate? Another millionaire socialist
14:18 on 14/05/2012
A new PM and Deputy PM would be a good start. Which brings me to a point. If Clegg is Deputy PM that means he stands in when Cameron is away or sick or what ever not standing next to him like his shadow
20:36 on 14/05/2012
The fact that he stands next to Cameron, like a shadow, shows that Cameron does not trust him to be in charge.
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meddleman
12:13 on 14/05/2012
Theresa May's 'survival' says everything about the calibre of Cameron's ministers.
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13:37 on 14/05/2012
A thankless job neither party has had a decent one for years
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Fozwords
Abandon hope when you post on here
18:51 on 14/05/2012
Tidy old bird though.