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Anders Lorenzen

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Lets Move on From the UK Met Office Statistics Saga and Get Back to Fighting Climate Change

Posted: 17/01/2013 17:23

One certainty in the world of climate science is that climate sceptics are constantly looking for gaps in how climate science is being reported in order to exploit them and fundamentally question whether climate change is actually happening.

This is exactly what happened in the run up to the 2009 COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) emails were hacked at The University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climate Research Unit, and subsequently leaked for all to see online. Climate sceptics claimed that the hacked data proved key statistics had been manipulated and climate change was a conspiracy by scientists. 'Climategate' was quickly seized upon by mainstream media and proved to be a considerable distraction during COP15, where it was given enormous airtime and diverted attention from discussing solutions to climate change.

A similar unhelpful distraction could be brewing this year if we're not careful. On 24 of December 2012, the UK Met Office released a statement explaining that their new 'experimental' climate prediction computer model had estimated that the predicted warming of the planet between now and 2017, might amount to 0.43C and not the 0.54C they had previously predicted: a drop in just 0.11C or one tenth of a degree Celsius. Climate sceptics seized upon this news and took the opportunity to declare that climate change is waning. The result was the outcome of more accurate modeling rather than a change in circumstances so this was an absurd conclusion to make.

These latest minute Met Office predictions ultimately don't change the momentous challenge we're up against; staying within a two degree temperature change and avoiding climate catastrophe - scientists do agree on this. It's important not to confuse people with ambiguous statistics, especially after the record breaking year of extreme weather events 2012 was.

Predicting temperature change is a delicate business - as technology improves, forecasting will become more accurate and reliable, but this does not change the fundamentals of our challenge. Its absurd to argue that climate change has stopped, which is exactly what the Daily Mail has done in this instance by arguing that there would have been no temperature rise on our planet's surface for nearly two decades. Carbon Brief have done a great job of rebuffing these claims by arguing that the downwards predictions does not mean that global warming has finished and highlighting examples why this is not the case.

Regardless, the Met Office should learn from this incident and seriously consider how and when they communicate announcements like this in future - these are highly sensitive and important details which should be communicated in a way that cannot be misunderstood or abused. Releasing news like that on the 24th of December, Christmas Eve in the Western world, could easily be perceived as burying 'bad' news on a busy news day - a red rag to the climate sceptic bulls.

Our focus must at all time be on debating and researching new technologies and efforts to tackle climate change - repeated debates about whether climate change is happening or not are extremely unhelpful and distracting at this critical point in time. The argument should be long gone now!

 

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11:07 AM on 03/02/2013
If anything, the IPCC has underestimated the impacts of climate change. http://clmtr.lt/cb/ohc0Bg
12:26 PM on 01/21/2013
Its not climate change that worries me, because its a lot of, wait a minute let me smell it again, yes, its bull, its the pathetic weather forecasts we are getting, they cannot seem to get the next day correct let alone a couple of days ahead? With all the millions being spent on forecasting surely they should get the odd day right? Even a broken clock is right twice a day?
10:55 PM on 01/19/2013
Oh yes, let's move on. Let's turn our backs on the deceits and deceptions and overblown claims of climate alarmists over the past decades. Let's look away from the misery they have helped bring about with bio-fuel driven starvation. Let's not think about the children terrified with images of tidal waves, and hot-houses, and doomed polar bears. Let's not bother about the subsidy-junkies of the renewables sector and the harm they have done to the poor, to wildlife, and to landscapes. Let's ignore the corruption of the IPCC and the squalid dealings revealed by Climategate. Let's forget about that unfortunate hockey-stick farce. Oh yes, let's move on. There is surely more death and destruction for greenies to cause before the game is up.
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07:31 PM on 01/22/2013
Well, well. Useful trick to delete your comments when you are embarassed by them. Perhaps you might now like to take a more critical look at your own opinions.
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Anders Lorenzen
07:08 PM on 01/24/2013
I was not embarassed by them but it was deleted by a moderator for a reason I have not been given.
03:41 PM on 01/19/2013
we need to build gigantiic heat pumps and turn all the excess heat to useful energy
09:11 AM on 01/19/2013
To fight climate change is to fight nature. This is cyclical and the earth will continue to heat up and cool down. About every three hundred years, the thames has frozen over.
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vividrick
I came, I saw...I had a cup of tea!
01:06 PM on 01/18/2013
5 Tips for Handling Climate Skeptics in 2013:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-bellamente/5-tips-handling-skeptics_b_2481401.html