Edward Markus - founder, owner and chief analyst of ECR Research and ICC - is coauthor of this blog.

Austerity vs Growth

The focus in Europe is shifting from austerity towards a growth-led model. Central bank governors and fiscal authorities are more inclined to stimulate the economy. Even...

Sweeping global shifts

The BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa - have decided to set up their own development bank to rival the World Bank. This initiative is not happening in a vacuum. The emerging economies are increasingly self-confident and there is growing dissatisfaction with the...

Orban v democracy

Hungarian lawmakers on Monday overwhelmingly (265-11) approved a long amendment to the constitution which threatens democratic checks and balances. The biggest opposition party, the Socialists, boycotted the vote. The bill enshrines in the constitution policies that were previously struck down as unconstitutional by Hungary's highest court....

A quote of all times

"It took three years of muddling through crisis, near-panics in the financial markets, a million or so jobs lost in the US, social unrest in the developing world to recognize the debt crisis for what it is: a long-term economic and political barrier to development...

The next fiscal crisis is set for February or March. Paul Krugman is pleading for minting a $1 trillion platinum coin to avert gloom and doom. Ideas like these help put a smile on your face in difficult times, but how will the fiscal saga really evolve?

A 31...

A truce between Israel and Hamas holds for now, but the recent carnage could herald further geopolitical instability in the MENA. As a result, oil price will stay high and damage the global economy, which is already "at sea".

In the past decade the oil price quadrupled, but high...

GOP and Dems are in it together

The great British founding father of geopolitics Halford Mackinder famously said: "Democracy refuses to think strategically unless and until compelled to do so for purposes of defense." Mackinder stated that a politician often thinks in principles, ideals, and morality, instead of reckoning, as...

The most likely outcome of the 6 November elections is that not much is going to change in a relative sense. We foresee a second term for Obama, a (dark) red House of Representatives, and a Senate where the Democrats will win by a hair (although the latter is far...

"And when we think we lead, we are most led."

Lord Byron

"The task of the leader is to get his people from where they are to where they have not been."

Henry Kissinger

One of the above quotes is by a poet who was mad, bad, and dangerous to...

Unemployment in the eurozone is at historic highs. Economic growth data are equally depressing while confidence is low among producers and consumers. In short, the stock market rallies of recent months are premature. The European "patient" will not get better unless politicians reassure markets through reform packages that force supersized...

Few Europeans in northern countries understand that to keep Greece economically alive (for now) is in their own interest. A domino effect unleashed by a chaotic Greek default will have devastating consequences. It is better for everyone involved to show solidarity with Greece in a form of 'enlightened self-interest'. At...

The financial sector is preoccupied with the potential break-up of the eurozone. Yet the dramatic developments in the Middle East and North Africa (together called MENA) could lead to turmoil in the markets. Oil prices have been hovering near dangerous levels for quite some time. Prices could easily break out...

The European crisis has unfolded in three stages. It started when the Great Recession set in. Soon afterwards, a political crisis broke out. Politicians failed to address the underlying causes of the recession. Now these economic and political setbacks have triggered the crisis of European unity.

Until a few...