Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Ann Pettifor

GET UPDATES FROM Ann Pettifor
 

Austerity is Not the Right Strategy

Posted: 19/07/2012 13:24

The British government's economic strategy is in tatters.

On the one hand the Chancellor, the Rt. Hon. George Osborne has just offered assurances to the private sector that the British taxpayer will guarantee £50bn of new infrastructure investment and exports.

On the other, the coalition's deficit reduction programme has largely been implemented by - wait for it - massive cuts in infrastructure investment. This at a time when Britain - in contrast e.g. to China - invests far too little in the public infrastructure that supports and enhances private economic activity.

By slashing public infrastructure investment the Coalition government is cutting the legs off Britain's race to recovery, and undermining its ability to compete in the global economy.

The contradictory approach to investment exposes deep flaws in the economic ideology driving austerity in Britain, Europe and the US - an ideology plunging western economies deeper into recession. No wonder the governor of the Fed, Ben Bernanke was so downbeat last week. And no wonder the British PM promises years of doom and gloom to his electorate.

It gets worse: the Chancellor's new proposed £50bn taxpayer guarantees may well prove more expensive than direct public investment, because the government will be guaranteeing private sector borrowing, currently much higher than public sector borrowing.

In this sense, the Chancellor is copying the costly PFI strategy of the Labour government - a strategy which Coalition ministers were keen to disparage only a few weeks ago.

The Coalition's taxpayer guarantees for private investment follows immediately on from yet another £80bn taxpayer subsidy to Britain's private banks. However the former - taxpayer guarantees for private investment - are heavily conditional on projects taking off soon - and delivering results for the Coalition before the next election in 2015.

While these public subsidies may offer some solace to the depressed private sector, the greater risk is that the Prime Minister's 'gloom and doom' predictions will further depress private sector confidence, discourage private investment plans and cancelling out the promise of taxpayer guarantees.

Austerity - slashing public investment at a time when private investment is inhibited by a vast overhang of private debt and by a heavily indebted and broken banking system - is indeed a disastrous economic strategy, both for Britain, the Eurozone and the US.

No wonder therefore that the UK economy has shrunk by a massive 4.4% over the last four years, while the Eurozone economy shrank by 2% and the US has only grown by 1.2%.

By contrast China, which has used both monetary and fiscal policy to support private sector activity, has had more than 9% annual average growth throughout the four years since the crisis began in 2007. China, which responded rapidly to the collapse of the western financial system, mounted a massive fiscal stimulus in response to the crash. The stimulus amounted to 13% of GDP in 2008. This contrasts with the UK's weak stimulus of 1.5% of GDP and the US's 2009 fiscal stimulus of 5.9%.

China's public investment policy has been good for business. Above all, it has been good for public finances. Chinese fiscal revenue in 2009 soared by 11.9%, whereas tax revenues collapsed for both the UK, the US and the Eurozone saw tax revenues collapse.

China might be slowing down - but slowing down to about 7% increase in GDP is a record that Britain's politicians can only dream of.

Instead the British Prime Minister offers only the nightmare of 20 years austerity.

Ann Pettifor is Director of PRIME Economics

 

Follow Ann Pettifor on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AnnPettifor

FOLLOW MONEY
The British government's economic strategy is in tatters. On the one hand the Chancellor, the Rt. Hon. George Osborne has just offered assurances to the private sector that the British taxpayer will ...
The British government's economic strategy is in tatters. On the one hand the Chancellor, the Rt. Hon. George Osborne has just offered assurances to the private sector that the British taxpayer will ...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 96
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Bloggers
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3  Next ›  Last »  (3 total)
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
paulhunterjones
A new age Republican
22:27 on 20/07/2012
It may not be appropriate to compare China’s economic model to the one that is employed by most Western nations. China’s communist government controls all private enterprise. Social-political injustice, low wages and an ever widening gap in wealth can't slow down China’s economic juggernaut. The Government stifles foreign competition in its domestic markets. The government prefers to invest its enormous cash reserves into its infrastructure rather than lend (again) billions to Western nations which cannot carry their sovereign debts. Germany will come to a point that it will no longer mortgage its future to save other Eurozone economies. Every Western politician realizes that the implementation of austerity measures has an economic downside. Let’s agree on the obvious; politicians worry about votes and austerity measures costs them votes. Western nations have been borrowing money for years, refinancing the debt, accumulating new debt upon the old debt while asking their banks to purchase (more and more) toxic debt. If the bubble had not burst in 2008 this cycle would still be in motion. Most people were not concerned about eventually losing this fiscal Russian roulette game because public services, until now, were rarely curtailed. Increasing public spending only to relieve social discomfort only perpetuates the bad fiscal polices of the past. What this post fails to mention is when will the US, UK and the Eurozone nations balance their budgets and stop spending money they just don’t have.
16:14 on 20/07/2012
Ron Paul 2012!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Kipper51
13:28 on 20/07/2012
Labor Party Usa... Lol what a joke of a name for an organization that doesnt defend workers and laborers but defends the corporate pigs that only care about themselves and their profit margins
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Kipper51
13:24 on 20/07/2012
The opposite is increasing revenues which means increases to the top tax rates to offset some of the major causes to the deficit like unpaid for Wars in the Middle East and Tax Breaks and Loopholes for the top tax brackets that went unpaid for. The deficit would be nearly wipes out if the top tax rates returned to pre Reagan levels
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
06:14 on 20/07/2012
Of course, LIVING WITHIN YOUR MEANS is NOT the answer, being frugal and have the government not spend more then it can collect, it is NOT the answer......JUST KEEP PRINTING MONEY, REDUCING ITS VALUE AND KEEP SPENDING, like there is no tomorrow.... Greece and Ireland are just a mirage....hahahaha
13:11 on 20/07/2012
A country's means is its productive capacity in terms of people, in terms of equipment and so forth. When you say "there's no more money" and that printing new money is out of the question that's money with which to use that productive capacity and so there's less production, that capacity is wasted. For the sake of what are after all tokens, you'll throw away that capacity and idle so much. Very brilliant, isn't it.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
07:59 on 21/07/2012
Procrustes13 – Please enlighten us, why Greece, Ireland and Spain are on the brink of collapse, and without the IMF and other EU members they would have collapsed…? Or, the following 4 USA’s cities: Vallejo, Stockton, San Bernardino in CA and soon Scranton in PA are in bankrupting proceeding…? Is that due to their living within their means, or the foolish spending that took place there…. CA and the USA are not far behind… Idle capacity or not, if you do not have the money to pay your suppliers, pay the employees or get funding form others…. Please tell me how those countries will manage?
00:37 on 20/07/2012
All of the emerging economies ...including China...are building the middle class based on the American system of deficit spending...in other words ..they are ALL subject to boom and bust just like we are...China by the way has a huge housing bubble just like we did...and just as surely bust....to look at one sector...stimulus...and extrapolate GDP numbers from that is flawed...its corrolary ...not neccesarily causation....lazy partisan reporting would be another way to put it
13:12 on 20/07/2012
It's just easier to maintain feudalism, isn't it. I mean why try to have a middle class at all when it's so "unnatural". "Some people are born to be slaves", I guess, as Rush Limbaugh said.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Blackstone3
00:08 on 20/07/2012
Austerity was not and is not a choice. It is a result. It is what happens when you run out of money. Liberals just cannot understand that simple fact. No one woke up one day and said, I've got a great idea: austerity. Lets cut back. Lets not invest. Let the country fall apart. Austerity is what happened when you promised and spent more than you could deliver. America is next. We are avoiding pain because money flows into America as a safe haven. But even that is coming to an end. The FED is running out of bullets, the financial cliff is before us, and everyone knows that after the election the $1.3 Trillion deficit spending has to be controlled. We are just in an election pause waiting for the inevitable smack us across our face.
13:13 on 20/07/2012
Money is nothing more than tokens. The real capacity of a nation is its physical capacity and when you say "there's no more money", you are choosing to idle that capacity for the sake of tokens. In Greece, 10% of its industrial output was lost last year, that's production that didn't happen all because of that de-facto gold standard known as the euro. They say that Greece has to work more, well, they're working less!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Blackstone3
15:10 on 20/07/2012
If you are correct Greece should simply get out of the euro. That will bring back production and prosperity. They can produce their own tokens if they need to. All of those Greek islands are great for subsistence goat farming. Goat milk, goat cheese, goat skins, plenty of sun. Should they ever need foreign tokens they can sell their young girls to the Germans and Arabs. Come to think of it they can sell more than a few boys to the Arabs too! The Greeks could once again lead the world by showing use how to obtain a low carbon footprint and help restore mother nature.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rtx47
23:08 on 19/07/2012
If the stock markets rebound, and retirement plans take off, one could see a lot of boomers retiring.

This could create plenty of job opportunities by:
1. Vacancies to be filled
2. Retired boomers needing services - healthcare and tourism
3. Some retired boomers deciding to start small businesses.

If the 50+ were permitted to BUY into Medicare, there'd be an even more stimulus for the above changes to occur.

Boomers retiring (voluntarily or involuntarily) can be a very good thing for boomers and society.
Boomers, called the "sandwich generation" are responsible for their aging parents and their own children and grandchildren. The challenge is: Instead of moaning about being unemployed and / or unappreciated at work, boomers should utilize their skills and connections to keep their near and extended layered families connected, humming and happy.

Instead of worrying about making money, boomers should adapt to saving money - both theirs and their parents, children and siblings.

Many have achieved this in practice by moving-in under one roof, eating or vacationing together, being available for in-home supportive baby-sitting, education, do-it-yourself home-fixing projects and healthcare support.

It is never late to build, develop and leave behind a legacy of fond memories and values.
Humans (and society) was not created for individuals to work till they drop dead. If one is not surrounded by a family, develop / nuture a 'surrogate' family of ones choosing.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
britalia56
21:55 on 19/07/2012
why are these goons not paid on performace? they are all multi millionaires who dont need the money but their greed keeps proper swiched on people from doing the job.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
britalia56
21:16 on 19/07/2012
only an idiot would still be sticking to planA. well done gideon
photo
HUFFPOST BLOGGER
John Friedman
Helping companies live their values and tell their
21:04 on 19/07/2012
Agree that imposing austerity is crippling to growth and hurts the very people that need the safety net the most. I believe that we are being asked to make a false choice between reducing benefits and public services on the one hand, or increasing debt in the hopes that jump-starting the economic engine will spark growth necessary to infuse additional cash into public coffers.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-friedman/frugality-the-middle-grou_b_1642820.html
22:11 on 19/07/2012
You are right it is a false choice - in Wisconsin (US) we took a broad approach -

1. We eliminated the public-sector union's bloated healthcare corporation that was taking public funds from the programs and people it was meant for. We were able to balance local government budgets with that alone - since it was about $1B dollars.

2. We had public employees take a 5% cut in pensions and benefits, since they paid 1/10 what everyone else had to. An extra $50 bucks a months does not hurt someone who makes $70k a year.

3. With those reforms, no increase in taxes were necessary, and no layoffs to public employees - and budgets were balanced. - so the burden to the tax base, while not lightened - was not increased either. As a State in the US - we did not have the luxury of printing more money, or allowing an unbalanced budget (States have to have a blanaced budget in the US).


So everybody wins - except the public sector union bosses - who do not represent workers anyway (they just want dues and power) and honestly - do not do anything for the public good.
13:14 on 20/07/2012
Racing to the bottom and the politics of envy of course is always the best thing, isn't it. That is what Walker practices, the politics of envy. Wisconsin's economic performance has been very poor.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Allene Stucki
20:34 on 19/07/2012
Liberals define "living within our means" as "austerity". Rational people would call that "prudence", but of course rationality and liberalism always did constitute one of those "never the twain shall meet" combinations.
13:15 on 20/07/2012
A country's means is... oh, why bother. Hint, it's not tokens, it's real physical capacity. When you claim a country is not living within its means, you speak of tokens, not of real capacity and that capacity is idled and in time destroyed by austerity.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Allene Stucki
16:16 on 20/07/2012
No, actually when I claim a country is not living within its means, I'm speaking of living on BORROWED "tokens" - i.e., consuming more than they produce. Oh, why bother!
20:12 on 19/07/2012
Stimulus is Austerity because it requires the devaluation of currency. The absurdity of the debate btw these supposed opposite policies is that both result in cuts to the earned wealth of the middle class and the working poor to pay for the transfer of their wealth to the 1% and the the government that it owns and operates. The deception of this debate pits/divides Americans against each other in the charade of right and left, while the grand thieves run away with the real earned wealth. Orwellian doublespeak is at play in the debate of Stimulus vs Austerity. Will the people see through the absurdity of such nonsense, and tell the inflators the scam is well past done?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ruolivert
22:53 on 19/07/2012
Not before its too late
00:15 on 20/07/2012
Do you believe unemployment exists? As in, do you think the US has reached full capacity output?

When you talk about inflation like that, I can only assume you are referring to the discredited quantity theory of money, where any increase in money supply is inflationary.

Money * Velocity = Prices * Capacity

Your version of events assumes velocity is fixed (it isn't, it goes up and down all the time) and that capacity remains unchanged. Essentially, it's saying that when hit with greater demand for goods, businesses will only raise prices and never hire new workers.

I would suggest the other way round is the case - when sales of goods go up, businesses hire more workers to produce more goods. In other words, printing money creates jobs, not inflation, as long as unemployment remains.
01:39 on 20/07/2012
Inflation is the long term effect of rising prices due to the consistent increase in the volume of money over an extended period of time. As prices rise steadily in response to the excess volume, wages fail to keep up, thus creating a decline in the standard of living. The 70s was affected by oil spikes due to short term events, but more about the large increase in the volume of currency to pay for the wars. One income per household was sufficient prior to the 70s, two incomes were needed after that decade. Take a look at graphs from 1971 on. The increase in the volume of money is dramatic and steady, culminating the 16 trillion monetization of 08. The consumer price index takes a dramatic turn up after 71, and spikes up steadily for the following decades. Productivity is up 2 1/2 times since then, while wages have gone nowhere when adjusted for inflation. Inflation is a transfer of wealth as the 1% has increased earning times 6 since then, while all other earners have made gains of only .25 -.50. Cost of living is also 6 times higher than from 79. To keep up with inflation, besides having two wage earners, people have needed gains from stocks, and their houses. As those bubbles pop, the distortions to the real economy due to excess volume of money will become very problematic.
19:23 on 19/07/2012
Austerity measures, doublespeak for genocide on the lower classes. The Hitler solution. The elites will do anything to stay in power and take all the wealth for themselves as western economies sink. Somehow they think by destroying the productive classes things will come right again.
19:11 on 19/07/2012
What? Throwing money at the degenerate gamblers at the big banks isn't working?
Shocked!