2013-05-18T01:53:05-04:00 Timothy Barnes http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/author/index.php?author=timothy-barnes Copyright 2008, HuffingtonPost.com, Inc. HuffingtonPost Blogger Feed for Timothy Barnes Good old fashioned elbow grease. tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.2127461 2012-11-14T02:56:32-05:00 2013-01-13T05:12:01-05:00

Timothy Barnes http://www.huffingtonpost.com/timothy-barnes/ first election for Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs), which will take place on 15 November. I was in Cambridge for a couple of hours, helping Sir Graham Bright in his bid to become PCC for "Cambridgeshire and Peterborough", so covering the City of Ely, where I was born and raised.

Asking around amongst my friends on Monday morning, I was struck by how few people seem to be aware of the elections, and even less of the candidates, in their areas. Turnout everywhere is expected to be low, so much so that at this point 20% might be considered a good result. Regular listeners to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 would be aware of issues that have made it difficult for independent candidates to stand, such as relatively high deposits (£5,000 versus the £500 for a parliamentary election), but would probably be ignorant of what PCC's will actually be able to do, or why anyone thinks we need them. Like so much of the media, Today has covered perceived problems with the principles of the PCC elections, rather than the issues that those elected might be expected to deal with.

There will be no such vote in London, where the Mayor already has oversight of the Metropolitan Police and it is possible that London-based journalists and news outlets have covered the story less than might have been the case had London been involved, but that can't account for the lack of excitement in most local media. It is true that many local papers have covered basic information on candidates through interviews or profiles, but there has been little debate about their plans or coverage in the editorial pages that would have more usefully served their readers.

The result is that most voters are fairly apathetic about the elections, many are ignorant about the role and a good number are factually wrong in what they believe will happen.

In Cambridge, a reasonable proportion of the people to whom I spoke were unhappy with what they saw as the politicisation of the police. They saw election of PCC's as an unwanted involvement of elected representatives in the way the police service is run. However, most were unaware that local politicians, usually councilors, already sit on Police Authorities, which currently oversee police activities. What is more, their concerns seemed to be more about whether PCC's would be able to interfere in police investigations rather than issues over priorities of local policing, support and other topics that the candidates are campaigning on.

I am not aware of any candidate in these elections, whether party-backed or independent, who has not pledged to fight for politics-free police investigations and support for front-line policing. But there are things that PCC's will be able to do that will effect the lives of ordinary people and those voters should be able to express their views at the ballot box having received more information.

In Cambridgeshire, there is a budget of almost £140m for the local police force and the elected PCC will have a strong say in the priorities for it. Sir Graham is looking to find ways to separate the oversight of the police from their day-to-day activities and intends to move the oversight function of the PCC out of the existing police headquarters building creating a clear division between the two. He also hopes to support local organisations that support victims of crime, such as rape crisis groups and crime prevention schemes, including the NFU's FarmWatch, which helps protect rural communities and is a major issue for much of Cambridgeshire beyond its three cities.

Other candidates have different spending and policing priorities that voters might prefer but it is hard for anyone to make an informed choice with so few views having been given a decent airing or subjected to much public or press scrutiny. I have met with similar comments when making telephone calls on behalf of candidates in Cumbria, Derbyshire and elsewhere across England.

Anyone seeking elected office needs to rely on the media to help spread word of their activities and policies. This is particularly true for independent candidates, who lack access to an active supporter base that are well used to running campaigns, distributing leaflets and contacting voters. That has not happened here and while it is understandable that some object to the very idea of electing PCC's that does not change the situation: there will be an election for them on Thursday and voters should have been better served in learning about the candidates and their policies.

If you want to know more about any candidate in the PCC elections, the Home Office websites has a complete list of candidates. http://www.choosemypcc.org.uk]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1179947 2012-01-02T17:06:26-05:00 2012-03-03T05:12:01-05:00

Timothy Barnes http://www.huffingtonpost.com/timothy-barnes/ here).

United Kingdom

1 - Politics will continue to be dominated by the economy for much of the year. The Jubilee and the Olympics will offer a brief respite, but expect many 'are they worth it at a time of hardship' stories in the press. Interest rates will not budge much in the whole year, the economy will grow by only 1-2% or so and house prices will remain stagnant. London will be an exception to both indicators, which will cause political angst in public and a rare bright spot for the Treasury, which needs London to perform to keep revenue flowing.

2 - Indeed, threats by London-based banks to leave the UK (along with £50bn+ of tax revenue) may also start to look less like hot air, particularly if the Chancellor implements the Vickers recommendations without much refinement. The banks will have a champion in Boris Johnson, who will be re-elected in May. Public bank-bashing will continue, albeit without any connection to the reality of what they do or how the rest of the economy benefits.

3 - David Cameron will dangle House of Lords reform at the Liberal Democrats (rather than an EU referendum), much as Blair used fox hunting, in order to pacify them as and when needed. Not much will change, though, in a year that celebrates the Queen's Jubilee.

Europe

4 - Europe will not sink, economically or politically. The EU economy will recover more strongly than largely predicted by the UK media. A mild recession will allow some economies to begin to grow again by the end of the year. German business confidence surveys in December suggested that this might be beginning to happen already.

5 - Whether or not Greece drops out of the Euro, which I think is unlikely, the European crisis needs to be understood as a political situation and not an economic one. The questions are about how it will be tackled, not if, and those are issues of politics - real and perceived. But there will be a solution and it will lead to further integration, not less, even if the solution is offered at several minutes past midnight. This has nearly always been the pattern following previous tension points and Germany will ensure it happens again this time.

6 - Supply-side reforms might be an unintended benefit of the crisis, as would be wide-scale privatisations that would help balance state economies, but these are likely to be unpopular in those countries that would most benefit - in France, for example, where the Presidential elections are likely to drive things in the opposite, nationalistic, direction. In the election, Sarkozy will lose to Hollande and Le Pen will not make the run-off, despite several predictions to the contrary to spice up the press commentary.

Further Afield

7 - In a big year for elections, beyond Europe, those in the US, Russia and China (!) stand out.
In the US, Obama will beat Mitt Romney in the Presidential election. The Tea Party will decline in influence as November nears. Post-Election, the lack of political alignment between the White House and Congress will prevent any meaningful deal on the US budget, which remains one of the largest destabilising factors for the global economy, albeit an unnecessary one.

8 - In Russia, Putin will be elected as President (OK, this is probably the least risky 'prediction' in the whole list) but the continued protests will unsettle him and the government. For Putin, it is one thing to bully former Soviet states, but quite another to clamp down violently on 'real' Russians in Moscow. So, in response, expect more symbolic tussles with the US, particularly over the Middle East, and many more pictures of Putin without his shirt on.

9 - China will show more signs of its new status by using, rather than flouting, global mechanisms from the WTO to the IMF. Expect trade wars - small ones - with the US, but fewer with European nations, where the greater access to local markets and need for Chinese investment will offer the ever pragmatic Chinese better ways of showing muscle. A slowing in the Chinese economy will lessen the scope for machismo (they keep their shirts on) but the (s)election of a new President will mean some showdowns for the sake of reputation building.

The Biggest Story of 2012?

10 - That will be something not listed here.

"Events, dear boy, events" as Harold Macmillan is supposed to have said to a journalist, are what make the headlines and blow things off course. They will again, as the unpredicted Arab Spring did in 2011. We can only hope it is a story that brings positive news and not a terrorist attack or natural disaster that dominates. Compared to some of those possibilities, more drab stories of economic woe seem like a good result.
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