Entries by Peter Kellner from 01/2012

Scotland and the Kellner Conundrum

| Posted 01.16.2012 | UK Politics

I should start with an apology. This blog will have a special, and possibly unhealthy, appeal for political nerds. It addresses some technical issues to do with democratic theory and the detailed arithmetic of Scottish opinion.

Ken and Boris Neck-and-Neck

| Posted 01.19.2012 | UK Politics

Throughout last year, I regarded Boris Johnson as the likeliest winner of London’s coming mayoral election. YouGov and other pollsters showed consistently that around one-in-five Labour supporters would desert Ken Livingstone and vote for Boris. Our latest poll tells a different story.

Making Sense of the Tory Lead

| Posted 01.23.2012 | UK Politics

YouGov's latest poll, showing the Conservatives five points ahead, made the front page of the Sunday Times and livened up the blogosphere.

The Economy: Not as Bad as Feared

| Posted 01.30.2012 | UK Politics

Things have not worked out as the government hoped. 12 months ago it was predicting steady economic progress. In the event, growth in 2011 was less than 1%, and the economy ended the year slipping backwards.