There's no escaping it. Ed Miliband has much to do, starting with this week's Labour conference, to seal the deal with the electorate. Labour's lead over the Tories is rooted in disappointment with the Conservatives and disillusion with the Liberal Democrats, not a positive view of Labour, or enthusiasm for its leader. Does this matter? Can Labour really win in 2015 when its leader is so far behind his Conservative opponent? As a rule, the popularity of a party and its leader march roughly in parallel. But not always. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher led the Tories to victory.