Entries by Peter Kellner from 10/2012

What Miliband Needs to Learn From Thatcher

| Posted 10.01.2012 | UK Politics

There's no escaping it. Ed Miliband has much to do, starting with this week's Labour conference, to seal the deal with the electorate. Labour's lead over the Tories is rooted in disappointment with the Conservatives and disillusion with the Liberal Democrats, not a positive view of Labour, or enthusiasm for its leader. Does this matter? Can Labour really win in 2015 when its leader is so far behind his Conservative opponent? As a rule, the popularity of a party and its leader march roughly in parallel. But not always. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher led the Tories to victory.

Miliband Gets Conference Bounce

| Posted 10.04.2012 | UK Politics

Miliband has climbed to his highest figure when people are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. With 27%, he remains behind David Cameron, 31%. However, Cameron's 4-point lead is his lowest since Miliband became party leader, and compares with the 9-10 point lead that Cameron has generally enjoyed in recent months.

To Win Outright, Cameron Needs a Miracle

| Posted 10.08.2012 | UK Politics

There may come a time when Cameron is a liability and needs replacing. Historically, the Tories have been good at regicide, as Edward Heath, Margaret Thatcher and Iain Duncan Smith discovered.

Scotland: Pro-Salmond, Anti-independence

| Posted 10.15.2012 | UK Politics

All YouGov's evidence from the past four years is that independence is a minority passion north of the border.

Obama Stays Ahead - Just

| Posted 10.23.2012 | UK Politics

Dramatic polling movements make for bold headlines, but are not always right