Entries by Peter Kellner from 11/2012

Obama on Course for Narrow Victory

| Posted 11.05.2012 | UK Politics

YouGov's final survey in America shows Barack Obama ahead in enough states to secure a second term as President, but by a narrower margin than in his first victory four years ago.

How Obama Won

| Posted 11.07.2012 | UK Politics

Barack Obama secured re-election by maintaining the coalition that gave him victory four years ago: black and Hispanic voters, young Americans, women and Americans with post-graduate degrees. These outnumbered Mitt Romney’s supporters among white men, older Americans and people who have not been to college. This emerges clearly from analysis of YouGov’s major survey of 36,000 Americans during the final week of the campaign. This showed Obama leading Romney by 51-49% among Americans who supported one or other of the two men. It will take some days, and possibly weeks, for the count to be completed; however, it looks as if the final tally will produce figures within 0.5% of these.

The Problem of Trust Goes Far Wider Than the BBC

| Posted 11.13.2012 | UK Politics

The past decade has seen a decline in trust across the board. The figures for senior police officers is down 23 points, from 72% to 49%; local police officers are down 13 points, from 82% to 69%, Even family doctors (down from 93% to 82%) and school teachers (88% to 70%) have seen double-digit falls, even though both still occupy the two top places.

The Invisible Wall Separating Left and Right

| Posted 11.19.2012 | UK Politics

Beware analyses of mid-term by-elections (including this one, if you like). They are prone either to exaggerate or understate their meaning.

Cameron's Room for Manoeuvre on the EU Budget

| Posted 11.26.2012 | UK Politics

Conservative eurosceptics and Labour tacticians should beware. British hostility to the European Union is not as simple or complete as some of them think.

Leveson: What the Public Really Want

| Posted 11.28.2012 | UK Politics

In general, the public trust neither politicians nor journalists. It is this double distrust that informs the results of three Leveson-related surveys that YouGov has recently conducted.