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Daniel Furr

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Dissolving the Eurozone could be Bloody, Literally.

Posted: 16/05/2012 12:34

In my first Huffington Post blog, A European Civil War: The American crisis comes to Europe, I crafted an analogy between the current euro debt crisis and the American Civil War; an issues of state verses federal power and, in order to solve the economic catastrophe, a federal solution would be required. Honestly, I naively assumed Brussels would administrate an effective and coherent federal policy.

I was wrong. So very wrong.

As Simon Jenkins wrote in the Guardian, on unions throughout European history, "from the Holy Roman Empire through Napoleon to the Third Reich. It always ends in tears." The notion of a single, unified authority-across Europe-has never been successful. The Austro-Hungarian Monarchy maintained a neutrality among the imperial powers of Europe; but the union was riddled with social, political and cultural differences and tensions. This extreme sectarianism, especially among Serbs, ignited to disastrous levels within the Kingdom Serbia and resulted in a secret Serbian military organisation-the Black Hands-whose member assassinated the Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Subsequent 1912 Balkin War instigated alliances across the continent and led to the First World War.

The breakup of political unions throughout European history have ended in more than just tears; internal and belligerent conflicts are rather too common. Pioneers of the European Union insisted its [political union] inclusion in the post-war settlement of Europe; the Union was designed to ensure neutrality, negate nationalism and rivalries. It failed to. The euro crisis viscously exposed the forgotten tensions and fragility, which encouraged the rearming of national economies. Deficit reduction plans have become a race to the bottom with nations undermining each other to ensure their economy is the most productive and competitive post-crisis. It is difficult to even consider the Fiscal Treaty ever becoming a reality after several European governments have used it as a political football. Spain's new conservative government went as far to openly defy Brussels by publicly telling the Commission to "forget it" when it came to submitting budgets and meeting EU deficit targets. Whether the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) remain align to the euro is still open to debate, but contagion to the core members is almost inevitable. The European Union has always been divided among the northern and southern members, yet summits are now a routine diplomatic spat between associates. A genuine agreement is a rare find; any agreement is always revised and altered at the next summit. It is now impossible to get twenty-seven members to maintain a single policy without one member demanding a change.

In its current incarnation, the euro and the European Union are dead. It is unworkable, impractical and hideously redundant. Decision making is paralysed and non-existent and certain heads of government seem to genuinely despise some of their counterparts. A single federal approach is the remedy and only feasible solution; in reality, though, the very notion of a federal argument is political suicide with countless governments falling across Europe.

A European Civil War: The American crisis comes to Europe contained a basic premise, that, regardless of what occurs, Europe would construct a credible, single, united approach to solving the debt crisis. On reflection it seems the blood spilt on the trading floor will inevitably reach the streets. We may not begin building trenches and drafting volunteers, but the end of the euro will not be peaceful. Far from it.

 

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04:27 PM on 05/18/2012
Furr is talking from the wrong end of his torso.

When attempts were made to consolidate and federalise the diverse nations of Europe in the past, communications were haphazard to say the least, languages were a barrier, subjected to misinterpretation leading to conflict, and political pressures veered from out right despotism, and monarchistic divine right mentalities, through rabid nationalism to communitistic ambitions by the so called proletariat.

Under such vaired and conflicting regimes unification was impossible.

Today the nations of Europe no longer operates in such a chaotic manner, hence the march towards federalisation and total unification.

Furr is living in a past that no longer exists, and the proof of his faulty reactionism can be found in the modern communications that now ensures Europe and the Eurozone needs only to press s few buttons on a keyboard to set in motion chains of events that were impossible to generate before the ubiquitous computer came on the scene.
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12:23 PM on 05/21/2012
Sorry scouse55, I cant agree....it's going to take more than the modern technology of a computer or two, keyboards and mice to solve this one.....during the "Cold War".. differences and conclusions could also have be reached by the pressing of a few buttons....fortunately they weren't..!!!!
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02:21 PM on 05/17/2012
Wow! I have thought about this a lot since before the civil war in the former Yugoslavia and have predicted similar situations in many other countries since. It IS just a matter of time and definitely a case of WHEN not IF!
03:30 PM on 05/16/2012
Dont know about blood, but the futures going to be a retreat from globalisation, and protectionist policy after policy. Once the dust settles (or blood), a new form of capitalism will have emerged.
My worry is that there will never be enough jobs to go round again, and tribalism will make Enochs prediction come true.
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04:52 PM on 05/16/2012
Not sure if the geopolitics will return to protectionism; Germany are insisting on liberalisation of markets and free trade, against the French traditional platform of closed markets. However, it is unlikely Europe will solve these current problems without a conflict.

Sadly, it is inevitable.
05:27 PM on 05/16/2012
Its started already, with the US slapping tarrifs on Chinese imports. Within europe, the inevitable colapse of the euro (in its current 17 member state), will exasperate difficulties with unemployment, which will drive short term self interest measures. ie tarrifs. 
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01:51 PM on 05/21/2012
Blood has already flowed on the streets in Greece.....granted not actual rivers of blood...as yet ..but it is early days ...I believe they are to come...and I don't think it will be confined to Greece.

What this ill conceived Union was meant to abolish for all time....is coming to pass!!

The best laid plans, of mice and men....