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David Prescott

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Labour's 50 Shades of Red and Blair's Vanilla

Posted: 12/07/2012 12:14

I suppose the measure of any successful writer is to spark a reaction.

To that end, I found myself muttering at my iPhone as I read Mehdi Hasan's polemic against Blair's return.

I tweeted I'd like to Fisk his article but realised I had a life. He was kind enough to offer me the right to reply so here goes.

Mehdi is a cold war warrior of the Blairite/Brownite struggles. From 1994 to 2007 and beyond by proxies, the media defined Labour by this eternal struggle between neo-liberalism and 'real Labour.' It made careers, it secured book deals, but it was built on a fundamental misconception - that Tony and Gordon were politically different. They weren't.

So why is the reappearance of three-time election winning Tony Blair to Labour politics treated with such disdain by some on the left?

Firstly, the Labour Party is a broad church. - Progress, Campaign, Compass, Blue Labour, In the Black Labour and so on. The party really is 50 shades of red, with some on the more extreme side still fascinated with electoral masochism.

Tony was always very vanilla. The public liked him because he understood them. His real mantra in 1997 should have been aspiration, aspiration, aspiration.

That ability to listen to the public's concerns and draft a manifesto to meet them, led him to being a repeated electoral success and now the ideal person to input into Labour's new policy review with former No 10 colleague Jon Cruddas.

But in the eyes of many dinner party activists, that aim to appeal to the many and not the few meant he was a bit of a sell-out.

But if you step out of North London to areas Labour snatched from the Tories in 1997 such as Weaver Vale, Chester and Cleethorpes, you'll find the warmth from the people Blair won over is still strong.

So for Mehdi to quote the "anti-war left" and the "Daily Mail reading right" forming a mass unholy alliance of hate is a bit sweeping. In fact, Blair still polls as the third most popular post-war PM after Thatcher and Churchill.

For Ed Miliband to share a stage with Tony and to invite him to be a policy advisor on the Olympics legacy shows how confident he has become as leader. Ed is his own man - defined neither by his brother nor by his predecessors. He has nothing to fear from Blair and everything to gain.

That's because the one huge weakness of the coalition is its lack of strategy - outside blaming the previous administration for every malady known to man.

But Tony was obsessed - and to my mind still is - with being strategic. Every time he returned from holiday he brought back a handwritten strategy on how his government should develop over the next few months.

Compare that to the tactical approach taken by Cameron. It works up to a point when you were getting good coverage but in the bad times it looks like you're trying to govern by headlines.

Blair's strategic input and experience will be a huge political asset to Ed and the party. Also a hugely important financial once - hence the fundraiser at the Emirates. Name any other politician who could command £500 a ticket.

As to 'myths and legends' of Blair winning elections, Mehdi said Tony inherited a 13% lead in 1994, extended it 29% but only won by just under 13%.

The only poll that matters is election day with mid term anti-government polls always going to be high and those leads are inflated because there rarely is an election tomorrow. That's why in spite of averaging 22% leads in 1990 we didn't get Prime Minister Kinnock.

The four million lost votes between 1997 and 2005 is also easily explained. Turnout dropped in 2001 because they felt Labour would walk it again. People were broadly satisfied so some didn't bother to turn out to vote.

So between 1997 and 2001 alone the party saw 2.8 million votes disappear but Blair lost only five out of 418 seats and just 2.5% from his 1997 vote share. Hague gained ONE seat.

As for the Iraq war, Tony was hardly an electoral liability. In spite of everything, Labour only lost 1.2 million votes in 2005 (securing 9.6 million) and still had a comfortable 66 seat majority. And as Luke Akehurst has pointed out, of those 1.2 million lost votes, more than two thirds went to pro-war parties - the Tories gained 400,000, UKIP 300,000 and BNP 150,000.

When it comes to Tory leaders, people underestimate Hague. The star of this Coalition, he was very charismatic as opposition leader. Blair didn't fight a patsy. He beat an able opponent.

As for Cameron versus Blair, let's not forget Dave couldn't win an election by defeating arguably Labour's most unpopular leader, so I doubt he'd have beaten the best.

So let's agree to disagree to disagree, Mehdi. But let's find that centre ground (or maybe a little bit to the left of it) and agree on something.

This morning has become that bit more exciting. And it's given you something interesting to write about for some time to come.

 

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I suppose the measure of any successful writer is to spark a reaction. To that end, I found myself muttering at my iPhone as I read Mehdi Hasan's polemic against Blair's return. I tweeted I'd like t...
I suppose the measure of any successful writer is to spark a reaction. To that end, I found myself muttering at my iPhone as I read Mehdi Hasan's polemic against Blair's return. I tweeted I'd like t...
 
 
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15:13 on 16/07/2012
I don't know where you've been looking, but the only reaction that I, here in the outerlands, ever hear in respect of Blair is the indrawn breath of profound dislike. If not outright hatred. He has no constituency for a return to UK politics.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DAreisait
Democracy is discussion, dissent, and debate!
09:45 on 16/07/2012
The most successful prime minister ever, winning 3 elections on the bounce, respected around the world cannot be dismissed. This anti-Blairism is being hyped up by the right and left wing of political parties and quite rightly so because they are afraid. Blair can connect with a majority of voters and this made him successful and a strong political force in his own right. Blair is an astute politician and stepped down at precisely the right moment leaving a way back into politics should he so choose. Brown was too stupid to realise the trap left for him.
jhNY
Mercy.
19:17 on 15/07/2012
"But if you step out of North London to areas Labour snatched from the Tories in 1997 such as Weaver Vale, Chester and Cleethorpes, you'll find the warmth from the people Blair won over is still strong."

Proof? Source?
16:35 on 13/07/2012
This is a seriously old-school article in many ways - regurgitating old defences of the Blairites.

Blair lost Labour a lot of votes in his later years. Iraq was a massive vote loser to the Lib Dems and that trend continued with young people, who were converted into Lib Dem supporters well before they reached the 2010 election. Those people Labour have only won back now the Lib Dems have betrayed them.

The voters Labour lost under both Blair and Brown were not turning against them because Labour went too left-wing. It was because they no longer believed Labour stood for anything - that all politicians were the same. That doesn't mean setting out a 1983-style manifesto is going to win votes but it does mean there needs to be some shift to the left, to stake out a criticism of free market economics - something Miliband has been working on with some success.

There are a lot of questions that Labour could be addressing with their policies that would reaffirm a lot of people's hesitance about whether Labour is looking out for them, and state that they are different, that they are on their side. Questions around the banks, the media, private companies running rail, energy, etc, agency firms and more. Social democratic, if not socialist, arguments are being given a new lease of life in the current situation. Blair won elections in a time of neo-liberal consensus - the times have moved on, but has Blair?
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vividrick
I came, I saw...I had a cup of tea!
11:40 on 13/07/2012
Labour are a broad Church, agree with that, when 'New' was set up in aftermath of late great John smith, you could tell the party did shift to widen it's appeal. We've seen how that fizzled out though, Blair shown his true colours, Tories never put anyone decent enough to face him: Hague, the unconvincing '£1 saving' vineer & his plastic child-prodigy Tory status, Iain Duncan Smith, who? Can hardly hear him! And Micheal Howard, ageing Vampire looking punt that Paxman had for mince-meat!

I supported Ed as 2nd choice, it was those crucial votes which got him across finishing line ahead of his 'Blairite' Brother. He didn't stab him in back as some suggest, to challenge your sibling so Labour wouldn't have to fronted by another of same ilk deserves kudos. He said right things when appealing for old & proper Labour values, anti-war, solidarity with working families, anti-capitalist, equality etc. He sought to tie with Unions again. Say what you like about Unions, I'd rather work with them than bankers, lobbyists & rich influential donors.

Has Ed made two steps forward & ten steps back? Sharing platform with a war-mongerer of whom he criticised invasion of Iraq? Working Under Brown who signed cheques for Blair's war? Blair has shown he's in league more with right than left. Earning millions on lecture tours, his Catholicism as a vineer for redemption. Blair can't walk down any street in Britain without security, yet someone like John Major can. Go figure!
09:51 on 13/07/2012
I've recently been wondering what would have happened if, in the aftermath of the 2010 election, Brown had immediately resigned leaving a new interim leader to open up negotiations with the Lib-Dems about the formation of a more progressive coalition.
Would things have worked out differently?
Follow the link for my take on the matter: http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/07/how-would-a-lib-lab-pact-have-worked-out-after-may-2010/
16:38 on 13/07/2012
No. The Lib Dems leading the negotiations were economically right-wing. They favoured a Tory coalition
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hearthammer
If left is right and right is wrong, decide!
08:57 on 15/07/2012
The Lib Dems were economically right wing? Unlike Labour?
04:08 on 13/07/2012
Mr Prescott. If blair is such a dab hand with the strategy, and liked tinkering with it, the strategy, was it just a failure of implementation that leaves me stumped when I try to think of the land mark acheivements of the blair project, new labour ?

Discounting claiming glory for work started decades earlier, eg Northern Ireland, or inheriting reasonably balanced books at a better time in the economic cycle (and then squandering our childrens future), what ?

A continuation, and ramping up of the Friedman inspired Thatcher policy of markets know best, left us with the FSA light touch timebomb.
The very un-friedman like rocketing in public spending, much of this morgaged off to the distant future ala PFI, much to finance 'shoulder to sholder' type, non UN sanctioned Illegal War,
On a pathetic fabrication of a justification, the non-existant WMD, about to fall upon us at 30 mins notice.
As well as the usual 'jam today' for the vote's.
Over seeing, what must be called his failed immigration experiment , and apparently relishing leaving the Tories the mess.
Deal in the Desert with Mummar David ?
Grossly inflated house price's bubble ring a bell ?
The exponential expansion of the income gap between Tonys pals, and the rest of us ?
And many more.....

Just what did Tony Blair / New Labour do for us / do us for ?
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19:48 on 12/07/2012
Labour are just one more right wing party, along with the Tories and the LibDems. All of them prsented right of centre manifestos to the electorate in 2010. All of, surprising as it may seem, presented manifestos further to the right than the BNP. Don't want to believe me? Check the link below... prepare to be slightly surprised.

http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010
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19:28 on 12/07/2012
What is this obsession about moving to the left? Labour was misguided by those in change, vet fundamentally it has always remained centre-left. Tony Blair as Prime Minster brought equality legislation (as a practising Christian) to the forefront, rebuilt schools and tried to deal with child poverty, just to name a few things. For me these are some of the things that matter the most to me personally, as a gay man in a civil partnership with a child. I agree Iraq and Afghanistan was morally wrong, but Blair and New Labour were not all bad. Now cue the wingers...
21:22 on 12/07/2012
No that was Brown, and his rebuilding of schools - and hospitals - was based on Bubble Finance, aka PFI.

Blair was the 'war on terror man'.

Sadly, yes, Blair and New Labour were all bad: it was all built on sand, aka fiat money and a weird of mix of neoliberalism and the corporater state.

Even the current Olympic fiasco started with Tessa Jowell, and New Labour's obession with 'outsourcing' - cue Capita, G4S and Serco, A4E and Atos Origin.

Not really much difference between New Labour and the Coalition.
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22:05 on 12/07/2012
Maybe for you, but not for me. As I mentioned I have a family and I'm gay, I remember Tony Blair doing a very important interview (I think it was The Face) about equality, and he drove that through with the LibDems help. It wasn't Gordon, or Balls, or Harman.
03:04 on 13/07/2012
Maybe squeeze a rizla between them ?
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Gunderan
Who let the Libertarians out without supervision?
09:13 on 13/07/2012
Converted to Catholicism for the social benefits and BTW since when did anybody to the left of Adolph hitler ever make money from the Rightwing Republican talk circuit.Tony Blair was a social climber and all about the money.He continued the policies of one of the most unpopular PM in history which if the dork who wrote this article had bothered to do his research would have known was MT.66% voted against her and she won a landslide what a joke.Remember folks we the license payers paid this imbecile.50 shades of nothing should be the title of this article just like the book bad fan fiction written by a complete idiot.
16:39 on 12/07/2012
Labour is outdated and in hock to the super-rich. It does not represent the working class in any shape or form. It was responsible for destroying the social fabric of the UK with hordes of immigrants. Someone should start a new Labour Party, perhaps call it Real Labour.
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mrs w waugh
Hail Caesar We Who Are About To Die Salute You
19:16 on 12/07/2012
And I agree f&f...........................
16:42 on 13/07/2012
I think they've changed direction. Might not be as to the left as I'd personally like them, but they aren't the same party they were under Blair.
15:15 on 12/07/2012
You are the dinner party activist Mr Centrist. Take your war criminals and go. Labour will move to the left and dump the centre right where it belongs - in the lap of the Tories.
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Tony Booth
16:29 on 12/07/2012
can't see labour moving back left, it will need a newer party to take that spot. can't see any success there either, we've lost all the left leaning press who would have boosted a socialist agenda 20 years (or more) ago so a left wing party will just be trashed out of credibility by our partisan media. britain may be better than other countries but that doesn't mean they are honest, just not as bent as the others.
16:49 on 12/07/2012
 Some interesting new MP's yet to come to the fore. And we are here!
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Richie2012
Your micro bio is empty.
17:40 on 15/07/2012
Onward Lefties onward - kill the rich, feed the poor and stack up glorious social project one after the other. Make the rich pay. Tax them till the pips squeak. Wonderful socialism. Consign yourselves to a decade in the dark after you ruin the country.