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What Happens if Scotland Becomes Independent? The Butterfly Effect!

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On Friday, the Independent published the following article:- "We're rewriting the nations future. Here's how it looks..."

In response, the Campaign for an English Parliament has its own take on the possible future of the UK...

Imagine it is autumn 2024! It's 10 years after the SNP won their independence referendum. It's also 10 years after the Glasgow Commonwealth games which was widely credited as the time when public opinion swung in favour of Scottish independence.

King William V of England is making his first state visit to Scotland and is scheduled to unveil a statue of Gordon Brown, Donald Dewar and Alex Salmond locked in warm embrace, under the title 'The Scottish claim of rights'. A newly formed Republic of Scotland wants to highlight the problems being experienced by the break-up of the United Kingdom.

During the visit Alex Salmond, the Scottish prime minster representing a coalition between the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish nationalists complains about the new border controls as the countries of the former UK now have different agreements with Europe. England (having re-incorporated Wales) left the EU in 2020, whilst Scotland voted to become part of the new European fiscal union. Tension is noticeable along the border, as new detention camps for illegal immigrants have been set up in Gretna and Carlisle. England insists that international borders apply even though the revamped Scottish Labour Party insists it is having a detrimental effect on the economy of Scotland. Having re-established its own Territorial waters, England started in 2018 to rebuild its fishing fleet and is demanding that Scotland complies with international law over its fishing rights and that Scottish fishing vessels do not enter the waters around the newly established English oil and gas fields.

After the Scottish referendum the majority SNP government initiates radical social change and introduces gay marriage, the right to die, lowers the legal driving age, introduces minimum alcohol prices and legalises cannabis which leads to the SNP Splitting.

In England the split in the Conservative movement has healed with a merger with the successful but now defunct UK Independence Party. Conservative policy making has shifted to the right, however the newly formed Conservative Unionist party continues to campaign to re-establish the UK.

The Labour Party's has also healed the rift with the socialist left and traditional grassroots support mergers with the rump of the Liberal Democrats after the great slaughter of 2015. The internationally focused Labour party in 2021 remains the 2nd largest party in England but is losing ground to a rival English nationalist party as the English demand a voice to counter the SNP's aggressive economic policies that are harming growth in Northern England. The Scottish Parliament attempts to create unrest in England by promoting a Northern Parliament because it sees economic advantage in splitting England into two regions. Earl Cameron of Chipping Norton publishes his biography in 2023 and explains how he regrets not realising his premiership was the last opportunity for saving the UK. He states that he "hates being known as the last UK Prime Minister" and he denies missing the opportunity of creating a workable federal UK.

Having quickly ended the extra subsides provided by the Barnett formula in 2015, the English instantly experience a souring of relationships, British political parties split along nation lines and the Tartan Tories are formed. Scotland refuses to shoulder the British debt as it wants to continue with maintaining free at source principles towards healthcare. The majority Conservative government is formed with a clear majority in England in 2015 and pushes through radical private health and welfare reform in England.

These different political and social ideologies create competing banking systems in each country and contrasting rates of corporate tax are quickly introduced after the referendum. Scottish and English people in 2024 have completely different educational, social and political experiences. the English become resentful seeing free health and education in Scotland and young people in English cities riot in 2018, 2019 and 2021 which feeds English nationalist demands.

Due to the unrest, the Conservatives are able to introduce harsh penalties, which include the death penalty in England, as the Scottish courts of refusing to extradite people to England. The different police forces argue at the border

In 2019, The English abolish the Welsh Assembly stating that is impossible to control the borders between the two countries. The English want to focus on stopping the smuggling of alcohol and medication across the Scottish borders and demand stiff penalties for those involved. The Welsh are powerless to stop a dominant English parliament as no constitutional settlement has been agreed. In 2022 wind farms and new reservoirs are built across Wales in answer to the energy crisis being experienced in England. The SNP before it split in 2017 return the some of England's nuclear weapons which are now based in Wales.

In 2016 The British Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force are disbanded and new English forces created but a mercenary Scottish division is retained to replace the now defunct Ghurkhas. The SNP immediately leave NATO and Argentina uses the opportunity to seize the Falklands. Due to the turmoil, England is powerless to act.

In 2023 the republican movement within Australia wins a decisive referendum and now the talk amongst the other Commonwealth nations is of winding the Commonwealth up. In Ireland the Garda struggles to control the unrest in the north as militant protestants have taken up arms to contest Sinn Fien's United Ireland referendum which was instigated after Martin McGuinness used the centenary of the Easter uprising to galvanise popular support.

The Butterfly effect occurred because the British government failed to offer a rational Devo Max opinion and a fair federal system in 2014. It failed politically to recognise a fair deal for all the nations of Britain was needed. This failure ensured the success of the Scottish independence Referendum.

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Scottish independence | Politics | The Guardian

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