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Will Donald Trump Win The US Presidential Election? Live State-By-State Results And Updates

Trump knows he must win most of the roughly dozen battleground states.

08/11/2016 13:38 | Updated 09 November 2016

Donald Trump is poised to shock the world with a stunning victory to be elected President of the United States following a bitter and divisive campaign against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The 70-year-old Republican looked set to smash Clinton’s “firewall” with victories in states including Wisconsin and Michigan - areas that Barack Obama held two elections in a row, and were thought to be safe.

As he made his way to becoming the 45th president, stock markets tanked, the dollar plunged and many commentators compared the result to ‘Brexit’ and the anti-Establishment anger that fuelled Britain’s exit from the EU.

 

Follow the results live...

IS TRUMP WINNING THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Heading into Election Day, nearly 45 million people have already cast ballots in advance voting. 

Clinton is banking in part on high turnout - particularly among Obama’s young, diverse coalition of voters - to carry her over the finish line Tuesday. Roughly half the states with advance voting have reported record turnout, including Florida and Nevada, which have booming Hispanic populations, a possible good sign for Clinton.

In Florida alone, Hispanic participation is up by more than 453,000 votes, nearly doubling the 2012 level. Black turnout is up compared to 2012, but that share of the total vote is lower due to bigger jumps among Latinos and whites, according to University of Florida professor Daniel Smith

In Nevada, where more than three-fourths of expected ballots have been cast, Democrats also lead, 42 percent to 36 percent.

LATEST POLLS AND PREDICTIONS

A new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll shows Clinton a 90 percent chance of defeating Trump, seeing her on track to win 303 Electoral College votes out of the 270 needed, to Trump’s 235.

All of the available US Presidential Election forecast models now give Clinton a high probability of winning on Tuesday, though they vary in the odds they give her.

The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215. 

Others, like the New York Times’ Upshot and FiveThirtyEight, indicate a Clinton win with a lesser, but still high, certainty.

For all of 2016’s craziness, that projection actually follows a fairly traditional electoral map. Trump should keep Arizona and Georgia, even though Clinton is likely to make it a closer-than-usual race. Iowa also seems firmly in Trump’s column. All three states are more than 85 percent likely to remain red.

Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her. All three states are more than 80-percent likely to swing Democratic. New Hampshire polls have wavered recently, but the HuffPost model still predicts those four electoral votes will go to Clinton with more than 90 percent certainty. And Clinton should fairly easily hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

That leaves Ohio as the last critical state. It’s the closest in the race, according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just 1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks. The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state. In the event that Clinton’s ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in her direction ― which is not out of the question ― she’ll get 341 electoral votes.     

LATEST US ELECTION ODDS FROM THE BOOKIES

Although the odds had narrowed in October, the latest figures from the bookies all have Clinton ahead in the US Presidential Election race.

As of Monday evening, Clinton was the clear favourite to win among all leading bookmakers, according to odds aggregator site oddschecker.com.

All leading bookmakers are predicting a Hillary Clinton win in the US Election (screengrab taken on Monday evening)

While it now looks somewhat comfortable for Clinton, it’s worth remembering that Donald Trump’s odds of winning were once quoted at 150/1.

Bookmakers William Hill had shortened Trump’s odds nine times since October 15, most recently from 2/1 (33% chance) to 7/4 (36%). Meanwhile Clinton’s odds had lengthened nine times.

It’s likely though that the Democrat candidate will go into polling day as a clear favourite at odds of 1/5 (83% chance), with William Hill, while Trump is offered at 7/2 (22%).

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