NEWS

Pound To Euro Exchange Rate Gains As Sterling Sees Best Week Since 2009

Don't get too excited though.

05/11/2016 17:43 | Updated 05 November 2016

The pound had its best week since 2009 as it rallied with news of the High Court ruling on Article 50.

Sterling surged from 1.1074 against the Euro on the 1 November to 1.1286 by midday Saturday before falling slightly to 1.237.

The rise was prompted by the High Court decision that Theresa May must consult Parliament before triggering Article 50.

It is however, far below levels seen pre-referendum.

While Brexit uncertainty has been the bane of markets in recent months, the chance that MPs maybe able to water down the terms and keep Britain in the single market has helped the pound claw back some losses.

This is how the pound faired on the day of the ruling.

But analysts have warned not to be lulled into a false sense of security as the Government’s plan to appeal the Article 50 ruling at the Supreme Court will likely make markets nervous again, not to mention Brexit itself.

John Hardy, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Denmark, told Bloomberg: “...we actually risk extending the uncertainty. The best I can say for the pound is that we’ve stopped the bleeding for now.”

Although good news for manufacturers, the overall downward trend of the pound since the EU referendum vote is bad for importers and those looking to holiday abroad.

HSBC has predicted the pound will hit parity against the Euro by the end of the year meaning a 1:1 exchange rate, bad news for holidaymakers but a boost for exports 

An indicator of the potential implications came as German railways giant Deutsche Bahn’s plans for a stock market flotation of Arriva were described as “derailed” by Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, by the company’s boss.

State-owned Deutsche Bahn had planned to float up to 45% of Arriva on the London Stock Exchange, as well as part of its logistics unit Schenker.

But chief executive Ruediger Grube told news agency DPA that he will inform directors in December that he cannot recommend the initial public offering (IPO).

Grube said that “unfortunately, the world has changed fundamentally as a result of Brexit,” pointing to the pound’s collapse following the June 23 referendum vote.

He added that, if the share sale went ahead, “we would be throwing money out of the window, and acting that way would be foolish.”

Arriva is Deutsche Bahn’s international arm and operates a number of Britain’s train and bus services.

Another factor at play is next week’s US presidential election.

London’s top-flight index crashed to a seven-week low as European markets endured a bout of jitters in the run-up to Tuesday’s poll.

The FTSE 100 index sank deeper into the red, closing down 97.25 points to 6,693.26, as US national opinion polls showed the race to the White House was tightening between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

The surge in the pound is the exact opposite market reaction to last week when the High Court in Belfast ruled in favour of the Government in a similar case.

The landmark legal challenges were brought by a group of cross-party MLAs and a Troubles victims’ campaigner, Raymond McCord, who were worried Brexit could reduce EU funding for peace projects in Northern Ireland. 

Justice Maguire rejected the argument that the Good Friday Agreement had given sovereignty of Northern Ireland over to its people who would suffer a “catastrophic effect” by leaving the EU.

With a barrier to the triggering of Article 50 removed, Sterling plunged.

Bloomberg
Down it went...
 
 
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