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Who Is Winning The US Election 2016? Live State-By-State Results And Updates Of Hillary Clinton Vs Donald Trump

All of the Election forecast models now give Clinton a high probability of winning.

08/11/2016 12:33 | Updated 09 November 2016

Hillary Clinton was trailing Donald Trump in the early stages of the results of the US election, with the once distant prospect of a Trump victory looking more likely.

The AP news agency has said Trump has won Arkansas, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Clinton has won New York, Illinois, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and the District of Columbia.

But none of the ‘battleground’ states that will decide the election have reported - though Trump had the upper hand.

Trump looked set to bag the prized state of Florida in a vital win for the Republican nominee - opening up his prospects of a surprise win.

With Trump also leading at times in swing states in Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, his prospects were fast increasing.

Many will now turn their sights to Clinton’s ‘firewall’ that many expected her to keep, and land her in the White House, with holding Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin seen as essential.

Follow the results live...

WHO’S WINNING THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

LATEST POLLS AND PREDICTIONS

All of the available US Presidential Election forecast models now give Clinton a high probability of winning on Tuesday, though they vary in the odds they give her.

The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215. 

Others, like the New York Times’ Upshot and FiveThirtyEight, indicate a Clinton win with a lesser, but still high, certainty.

For all of 2016’s craziness, that projection actually follows a fairly traditional electoral map. Trump should keep Arizona and Georgia, even though Clinton is likely to make it a closer-than-usual race. Iowa also seems firmly in Trump’s column. All three states are more than 85 percent likely to remain red.

Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her. All three states are more than 80-percent likely to swing Democratic. New Hampshire polls have wavered recently, but the HuffPost model still predicts those four electoral votes will go to Clinton with more than 90 percent certainty. And Clinton should fairly easily hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

That leaves Ohio as the last critical state. It’s the closest in the race, according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just 1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks. The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state. In the event that Clinton’s ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in her direction ― which is not out of the question ― she’ll get 341 electoral votes.     

LATEST US ELECTION ODDS FROM THE BOOKIES

Although the odds had narrowed in October, the latest figures from the bookies all have Clinton ahead in the US Presidential Election race.

As of Monday evening, Clinton was the clear favourite to win among all leading bookmakers, according to odds aggregator site oddschecker.com.

 All leading bookmakers are predicting a Hillary Clinton win in the US Election (screengrab taken on Monday evening)

 While it now looks somewhat comfortable for Clinton, it’s worth remembering that Donald Trump’s odds of winning were once quoted at 150/1.

Bookmakers William Hill had shortened Trump’s odds nine times since October 15, most recently from 2/1 (33% chance) to 7/4 (36%). Meanwhile Clinton’s odds had lengthened nine times.

It’s likely though that the Democrat candidate will go into polling day as a clear favourite at odds of 1/5 (83% chance), with William Hill, while Trump is offered at 7/2 (22%).

PRE-ELECTION DAY BALLOTS

Heading into Election Day, nearly 45 million people had already cast ballots in advance voting. About half of those votes were cast under the shadow of FBI director James Comey’s initial announcement of a new review into Clinton’s emails.

Clinton is banking in part on high turnout - particularly among Obama’s young, diverse coalition of voters - to carry her over the finish line Tuesday. Roughly half the states with advance voting have reported record turnout, including Florida and Nevada, which have booming Hispanic populations, a possible good sign for Clinton.

In Florida alone, Hispanic participation is up by more than 453,000 votes, nearly doubling the 2012 level. Black turnout is up compared to 2012, but that share of the total vote is lower due to bigger jumps among Latinos and whites, according to University of Florida professor Daniel Smith

In Nevada, where more than three-fourths of expected ballots have been cast, Democrats also lead, 42 percent to 36 percent.

Trump deputy campaign manager David Bossie downplayed the impact of increased Hispanic participation, telling reporters on a conference call, “We feel that we’re going to get a good share of those votes.” However, he sidestepped questions about the level of Hispanic vote Trump needs to win the presidency.

Trump has eschewed the kind of investments in voter data and ground operations that propelled Obama to the White House and have been emulated by Clinton. His campaign was instead banking on the enthusiasm of his supporters to motivate them to show up to vote.

The Republican touted the “movement” he’s created, but also warned it would all slip away with a loss Tuesday.

“Today is our Independence Day,” Trump said in Grand Rapids. “Today the American working class is going to strike back.”

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