This one has been puzzling me, so I thought I'd turn it over to the Huffington Post community or Huffingotn Post Live to see if we can find an answer before Election Day (because after that it would be cheating). I know the case for 'Obama is lucky' has been getting more attention recently but I am not so sure the argument is conclusive.
So, considering that Mitt Romney's five point plan has got so much attention (one point plan if you're Barack), then let's use this format to get us started. Here we go:
Five points as to why Obama is the luckiest politician since Clinton heard George H.W. Bush say the words "no new taxes."
1. America was ready for Obama.
Obama could have been the most talented and inspirational politician ever but for much of America's history he wouldn't have had any chance of being elected. But yet, at precisely the right point in the life of America here came Barack with the promise of hope and change.
2. He's had some of the worst opponents EVER.
Obama is a great politician but goodness me he's had some election opponents that don't deserve the keys to the White House lawn mower let alone the Oval Office. Firstly there was Alan Keyes. Keyes claimed that Jesus Christ wouldn't vote for Obama because of his views on abortion. It was crazy outbursts like that sealed Obama's 2004 Illinois landslide to put him in the Senate.
Move on four years and we had John McCain, who then picked the untested and relatively unknown Sarah Palin as his running mate. Now it's Mitt Romney, a guy that LOST to McCain in 2008.
3.He followed George W Bush and Dick Cheney
George W Bush's approval rating when he left office was 22%. Cheney's was 13%. They spent billions on a highly controversial war, they didn't find any weapons of mass destruction and scared the bejeesus out of the world in the process. Cheney even (accidentally) shot a guy.
4. He got Bin Laden
George W Bush was unlucky it didn't happen on his watch.
5. He has Bill Clinton in his corner (mostly)
Clinton left office with one of the highest ever approval ratings. He's a famously skilled campaigner and whilst we all know that he'd prefer Hillary there is no one else I'd rather have in my corner and on the campaign trail right now.
Five points as to why Obama is the unluckiest politician since Al Gore found out about hanging chads.
1. The economy
The economy was ruined when Obama got elected. It was virtually impossible for him to turn around the worst recession since the Great Depression and return America to glory in four years. The economy is so connected to approval ratings and electoral fortunes that Obama could not have prevented being unpopular from day one.
2. The national debt
$16.2 trillion and counting. But the seeds of this gargantuan sum were sown in the Bush administration. The Bush doctrine of increasing spending and cutting taxes at the same time has made the national debt a runaway train. It is a problem which hangs like a millstone around the necks of generations of American's to come. This leaves Obama with the choice of either cutting programmes or increasing taxes both of which doom him to unpopularity.
Obama has suffered the most crippling stalemate of the political system in living memory. Congress seems to be more interested in winning a political or ideological grudge match rather than acting in the best interests of the country or serving the people who elected them in the first place. Congress, a plague on both your houses.
4. Two foreign wars
Both wars have resulted in the countless deaths of American servicemen and have added to the crippling national debt. And let's not forget that the rest of the Middle East is going through an incredibly unstable period which forces the world to constantly look west to American shores for Obama's leadership.
5. The media
Just like the polarisation of Congress, much of the media has gone the same way, peddling bias that fuels ideological dispute. Today's modern media on everything from twitter to TV scrutinises politicians 24/7 leaving Obama to be criticised continuously through an unlimited amount of content.
Ok, this should be enough to get started. Over to you Huffington Post. We need a decision before the election....and we haven't even talked about Sandy yet.