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Why We Should All Hope America Steps Back From the Fiscal Cliff

Posted: 28/12/2012 00:00

The manoeuvrings in Washington over the fiscal cliff are being viewed with a mixture of disbelief or outright distaste by non-Americans. With the stakes so high, there is genuine bewilderment at the daily twists and turns of the negotiations, the backroom dealing and the brinkmanship.

There is, of course, global relief that some Republicans at least appear to have dropped their outright opposition to any tax rises on the wealthy which could pave the way for eventual agreement. But it is mixed with concern that progress has been so slow, that any deal is far from certain and astonishment that no attempt is even being made to find a permanent solution to America's public finances. Without addressing the underlying mismatch between revenue and spending, a recurrence of the same crisis in the near future seems inevitable. But hopes now seemed to be pinned on somehow reaching a sticking plaster deal to get the country solely through the next few weeks.

It is easy to blame the partisanship of Washington's politicians for these failures. But the truth is that their divisions merely reflect the deep polarisation within US society, something which those who live outside America can struggle to comprehend. When I talk to sensible Americans, I am still taken aback to hear policies such as universal healthcare - pretty much accepted across the political boundaries on this side of the Atlantic - rejected angrily as one step from bolshevism.

Bridging such a gulf is not easy for any politician even if that was their ambition. But it is not only on ideological grounds that the US is so deeply divided. There is a similarly enormous gulf in wealth and opportunity. America's economy may be having a difficult time at the moment but it has grown strongly in the last 20 years. However, the overwhelming majority of the country's citizens have seen no benefit from this prosperity.

Real incomes for most Americans have fallen over the last 20 years while the rich have seen their wealth grow very substantially. Rising standards of living for the majority have only been afforded by heavy consumer and Government borrowing which is at the heart of the problems the country now faces.

Given these divisions, we should not be so quick to judge the talks being held in Washington. Instead we should be grateful that 'pork-barrel' politics is alive and well and still seems likely, I believe, to pull us back from the brink.

It might not look good but it is some ways far more effective that the revolving governments and the resultant inaction we see in certain European countries. It is certainly far better than allowing the US economy to fall over the cliff.

Unfortunately we are in a much more precarious position than when the Clinton/Gingrich stand-off shut down the federal government in 1995. Any deal is crucial not just for the US but also the global economy. Even a short period when Washington could not pay its bills would have a devastating impact on global confidence.

Despite its problems, America is still seen as a safe haven by the majority of international investors. Regaining lost credibility, as we have seen in Europe, is a long and very expensive task. If the crisis was to continue for any length of time, the experts warn that it could knock as much as 1% off global growth next year. The world economy is in much too fragile a state for a shock of such severity.

And before we get on a high horse here in Europe, we should reflect on the failure of Governments in Europe to tackle their own problems. The Eurozone is back in recession with its politicians similarly unable to find long-term solutions to its structural problems although the ECB's promise in September of "unlimited firepower" did at least calm markets.

In the end, the choice remains that either some countries are going to have to leave, or be ejected from, the single currency or they are going to have to accept moving more strongly down the road to economic union and giving up economic power to a central European bank. While the final decision to hand power over to Germany can continue to be put off at the cost of a stagnant economy, it cannot be ducked forever.

So while America and its politicians do need to bite the bullet and find a permanent solution to the country's debt, there are hard choices which need to be made here in Europe as well. For now, we should all be hoping this holiday season that there is enough good will in Washington to patch together a deal on next year's budget, no matter how temporary or unedifying the process may seem. 2013 will be happier for all of us if they do.

 

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The manoeuvrings in Washington over the fiscal cliff are being viewed with a mixture of disbelief or outright distaste by non-Americans. With the stakes so high, there is genuine bewilderment at the d...
The manoeuvrings in Washington over the fiscal cliff are being viewed with a mixture of disbelief or outright distaste by non-Americans. With the stakes so high, there is genuine bewilderment at the d...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sach Sach
02:18 PM on 12/29/2012
Did anyone ask for change in Syria? Iran? or Egypt? Egypt is engulfed in riots etc, Americasn think they rule the world. Why dont they go and kill their own citizen? instead of imposing this stupid american way of life? stupid people.
01:52 PM on 12/28/2012
But the fiscal cliff doesn't stop America from paying its bills -- quite the contrary, as it both increases taxes and cuts spending. The next approach to the debt ceiling, due in February or thereabouts, might stop it from doing so, but that's an issue that is not related to the fiscal cliff, except insofar as there might be a combined agreement to resolve both issues.
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OzzieTonto
“Hatred, the only thing that lasts.”
08:39 AM on 12/28/2012
I'm not the first to say the fiscal cliff is a lie, or the most-qualified by a long chalk. But it's amazing how both sides of politics in America have become obsessed with this foolish and destructive game-playing.
Austerity, as Britons may well know, is utterly corrosive and solves nothing. Obama, who pretends to be the defender of the middle class, has in fact waved the fiscal cliff like a threat FIVE TIMES in the last 18 months. He now offers trillion dollar cuts to welfare programs, another Obama sell-out of his base.
Where I live, treasury sanity prevails; the advice to the PM in ’07 was: Stimulus: 'Go hard, go early, and go to the households'. The bean-counters here are not afflicted by neo-liberal dogma: they have kept the economy on the boil for years using the levers provided by the money flows of the welfare economy.
But American habits are dangerously infectious: we don't want their stupid ideology here.
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chatnuptime1
The Wolf's Den.
11:16 PM on 12/30/2012
Meh... The fiscal cliff was created by the super congress as a threat to stimulate action. By the gang of six three from each party. It was hoped that the Austerity package of deep cuts would scare both sides to the table because the bases for both parties would be hit with many unpleasentries and both sides would be collaterally damaged politically and economically if they failed to come to the table. Extreme because The Neo Con Dems and Tea Party are playing a game of tug a war with fire at the center.

Still Now there remains recanting the tax pledge from the right. And auctioning the price on the left. but the deal will get done.
08:01 AM on 12/28/2012
As much as I like America and the American people, I hope it goes over the cliff. That will be a much needed wake up call to reduce the debt and to live within its means. If that means the rest of the world going into a depression then that's a price worth paying. As for Britain, until the population is reduced it cannot recover from this socio-economic disaster. More than any other country Britain needs to get its house in order and to stop chasing the Yanky dollar. Nationalism may be the best and only solution for Britain.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
chatnuptime1
The Wolf's Den.
11:18 PM on 12/30/2012
LOL you are a glutton for punishment aren't you.
11:58 PM on 12/27/2012
what we don't want is another economic crash like 2008 we Have not yet got over that how long would it take to get over a real global meltdown this could cause ?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
chatnuptime1
The Wolf's Den.
11:23 PM on 12/30/2012
Macro economics would suggest that when and not if it comes. It will take twenty years to stablize the melt down and 30 years before we see international growth. By which time the Tiger Nations will be completely out of the play and India and China will be competitors of first world financial leadership. In the tech and military hardware trade. by 2030. But India would win by 2035. While China back peddles to over population and slow gains in work force and exports we won't be buying. That will crush them. We will dig our way out but the debt incured as a result will make growth appaulingly slow.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sach Sach
11:33 PM on 12/27/2012
It was a bubble created by bankers-thugs and if a sensible president refused to bail out the bankers and removed the fed from the hands of these criminals it would have been better, but it didnt happen. the last time it could have happened was when the Skull and bones agent George Bush jr let the twim towers blow and kill hundreds. When the bankers see their power moving they cause a war. which is already in progress just when will China and Russia get involved we dont know but i think june 2013.
08:13 AM on 12/28/2012
Actually it was Bill Clinton who turned a blind eye to Islamic terrorism following the first attack on the Twin Towers in 1993. It was George W who was left to clear up Clinton's mess in 2001, I seem to recall it was also Bill Clinton who repealed the Glass-Steagall act. This was basically Bill Clinton de-regulating the banking system. Yes, GW Bush got his intelligence wrong in Iraq and yes he lowered taxes for the rich and middle-classes but compared to Clinton he was a saint.
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OzzieTonto
“Hatred, the only thing that lasts.”
08:47 AM on 12/28/2012
According to Thierry Meyssan of the Voltaire Network, there could be a change of course if Obama stays with the peace plan devised in July whereby the OSCE nations would supply peacekeepers and Assad would get to stay for elections. Between now and the expiry of that option (in a few weeks) look out for nasty surprises from the Pentagon/right-wing war lobby, assisted by the banksters.
But if it holds, the al-Qaeda rabble may get hung out to dry - expect blowback on their NATO handlers a la Amb. Stevens (instant karma). Either way, Syrians badly need a break, as do average Americans.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
11:06 PM on 12/27/2012
The collapse of any large economic bubble is a very bad thing, but far less of a bad thing that getting locked in a cycle of patching over the holes and blowing even harder in an effort to stop the bubble from deflating. The US has been in that cycle for quite a while, and the mantra has become that the bubble is too big to be allowed to fail, but the reality is that is is (if it hasn't already) reaching the point where the failure is inevitable and inevitably going to be violent (economically and socially, if not real violence)
09:56 PM on 12/27/2012
cough *EMI* cough
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Reith
what's a micro-bio?
08:38 PM on 12/27/2012
Don't worry! America loves its theatre so something will come of this. You know what they're like from their movies: the time bomb gets down to the last second before the hero clips the correct wire.