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Has the Third Intifada Already Started?

Posted: 28/02/2012 23:00

"Time is running out for the two-state solution" is perhaps one of the most over-used phrases in the diplomatic sphere today. For the past few years the chorus of voices chanting this mantra have increased and have warned of dire consequences if this hourglass run out of sand. One of the threats they foresee on the horizon is a third Intifada (uprising) in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Not withstanding whether the two-state compromise has a sell by date, one could argue that the third intifada is already underway. Unlike its violent predecessor, the third intifada is mirroring its original as a non-hierarchal mostly non-violent protest against the occupation and its by-products.

Signs of this uprising can be seen across the events of the past few weeks. Khadar Adan's 67 day hunger strike put a spotlight on administrative detention orders and created parallels to Bobby Sands. Adan's protest went global, trending worldwide on Twitter and gathering media attention. His success at getting a release date has lead Hana Shalabi - another detainee - to strike, which has now been going for two weeks.

Rock throwing and protests on Temple Mount are also on the rise. These can be traced back to a forged leaflet. The Electronic Intifada picked up this leaflet and created a Twitter rumor of imminent take over. Though the rumours were quashed, last Friday there were riots at Al-Aqsa as a group of religious Jews ascended Temple Mount. Jews and tourists ascending is nothing new, but in the current climate it was seen as a fulfillment of the rumor. Thinking that they were trying to take over the site, stones were thrown and the police got involved.

This past Friday also marked the anniversary of the massacre in the tomb of the patriarchs in Hebron. Baruch Goldstein killed 29 Palestinian worshippers and lead to the closing of Shuhada Street. During a demonstration to re-open it on Friday Fadi Quaran, a Palestinian-American who is a leader in the non-violent protest movement was detained. His case, like Adan's has also gone global.

People visiting the West Bank have noted the tension in the air and the protests that are happening week in and week out, increases in rock throwing and spontaneous protests. The Israeli's are also not deaf to this noting that the status quo is leading to violence. This awareness however has not stopped some parts of the government fanning the flames with plans for a rail network across the West Bank surfacing.

Like many of the protests around the region a big kick off event was not required. Tunisia had a single spark that grew into a conflagration and the West Bank is simmering. More important then noting its start, the real question is what will end this new intifada?

Diplomats like saying that the Middle East Peace process is like a bicycle, you must keep cycling or you fall over. To people on the ground the bicycle fell over in 2000 and despite various diplomatic efforts, has not recovered since. The first Intifada awakened Israel to the Palestinian national desires in a real way. The second Intifada killed trust between the peoples, what will the third bring?

The vacuum of vision and action at an elite level has led Palestinians to looking for new options. A leaderless, non-hierarchal movement can certainly motivate a frustrated people to protest and rise up, but the real challenge is to where.

Many in the non-violent movement focus on a rights based discourse and are ambivalent on the final political settlement. Protester's experience will determinate their support for various positions rather then a vein hope of the establishment of a particular political goal.

Returning to the two-state compromise, this third Intifada could be the final part in the trilogy; all be it with two alternative endings. The first closes the circle that the first intifada started and manages to motivate the pieces on the map to move into the mutually acceptable two-state compromise that has the full backing of the international community and is enshrined in various UN resolutions and peace treaties.

In the other ending the third intifada implodes the two-state compromise, kicked off 20 odd years ago, with Palestinians moving away from self-determination and into uncharted territory.

The two-state compromise has not run out of time, the status quo of conflict management has. As true urgency and pressure returns alongside this new uprising, we should not see the removal of options, but the death of the status quo.

 

Follow Joel Braunold on Twitter: www.twitter.com/braunold

"Time is running out for the two-state solution" is perhaps one of the most over-used phrases in the diplomatic sphere today. For the past few years the chorus of voices chanting this mantra have incr...
"Time is running out for the two-state solution" is perhaps one of the most over-used phrases in the diplomatic sphere today. For the past few years the chorus of voices chanting this mantra have incr...
 
 
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09:27 PM on 02/29/2012
This is what the Palestinians think their children are good for so they send them out to throw rocks at Jews and Christians and as suicide bombers.

http://palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=847&fld_id=847&doc_id=6257
10:14 PM on 02/29/2012
Is that you Newt?
04:40 PM on 02/29/2012
42% of WB is controlled by Jewish settlers. over 200+ illegal settlements cover even more occupied territories. And a large section of the land has been seized from private Palestinian landowners in defiance even of an Israeli supreme court ruling. Evidence is there to support it by a leading human rights group in Israel. But Israel is allowed to flout as many UN resolutions as they want so what difference does it make how much of an effort the Palestinians make? next stop.. Jordan.
04:48 PM on 02/29/2012
Actually, the percentage is more like 6% and more Israeli civilians have been killed by Arabs than the other way around. This is disputed territory and after the Gaza withdrawal and second intifada there are few Israelis willing to make any bets that the Arabs want peace. It's a bad situation but until you put yourself on the line maybe you shouldn't have a say. Why don't you move to Sderot and see what it's like to have rockets aimed at you on a daily basis? There have been 43 fired into Israel just in the last two months.
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05:20 PM on 02/29/2012
Correction: Occupied Territory.
05:40 PM on 02/29/2012
Thx for the factual correction. It's unbelievable the propoganda that's trotted out as fact.
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erehwon2
04:52 PM on 02/29/2012
Huh? Where do you get your figures?

Even Abbas has admitted that the settlements take up only 1.1% of the WB. While Israel (not "Jewish settlers") do have at least some control over Areas B (security) and C (administrative and security), the Palestinians have complete control over Area A and administrative control over Area B. The PA's control covers more than 90% of the Palestinians in the WB, more autonomy than they've had under the auspices of ANY previous country, including Jordan.

If you'll check your history, BTW, Israel never has made any attempt to take over any part of Jordan proper. The Palestinians, have, however, back in September, 1970.
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05:22 PM on 02/29/2012
Can you link us to that Abbas statement? :))))
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04:30 PM on 02/29/2012
Nothing happens until November 6th and then everything changes. This is why Netanyahu is calling for an early election.
Rosin the Bow
Palestine doesn't want peace. Meshaal said so
04:36 PM on 02/29/2012
Good lord, you guys said that a year ago about the Palestine bid in the UN. Remember that? "Just wait until September"?
05:41 PM on 02/29/2012
He's a one trick pony. What'd you expect.
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erehwon2
03:31 PM on 02/29/2012
"A vein hope?" "All be it?" Really? I had a difficult time wading through this very poorly edited article.

Was there a point to it?
AllegroTroppo
Appeaser feeds crocodile hopes to be eaten last
02:50 PM on 02/29/2012
Another Intifada will end up with the same defeat as the Second one. Probably a lot more decisive. The Security Barrier is in place, and Israeli people are far better prepared to defend their innocent civilians than in 2001, when they were still laboring under the illusion that Palestinians are interested in the peaceful solution to the conflict.
05:48 PM on 02/29/2012
I think it an Iranian plot to keep things stoked up by the so called Palestinians. Thus drawing more Israeli security resources away from thoughts of attacking them or it is another prelude to an all out missile attack by hamas/hezzbollah?
Rosin the Bow
Palestine doesn't want peace. Meshaal said so
02:07 PM on 02/29/2012
The cycle goes round and round.
The Israeli government is ready to negotiate, the Palestinians refuse and turn violent.
Israel cracks down on the violence, the Palestinians whine and play the victim, but the violence ends.

We are in step 1 now.
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
12:11 PM on 02/29/2012
Try to keep it non-violent folks.
Don't give Netanyahu justification for more mass murder.
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Aziat
The Answer is 42
02:47 PM on 02/29/2012
What mass murder has Netanyahu committed...do you just like to throw around these terms will nilly, hoping nobody will call you out on it?
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stockton jeff
10:18 PM on 02/29/2012
Maybe not him but the man who came before him, Olmert. Killing 1400 in Gaza, with the majority of them being non combatants. I remember in the 80's when the IDF actually took young Palestinians aside and broke their bones over large rocks. This from the so called most " moral army" in the world.
11:52 AM on 02/29/2012
there can be a 3rd intifada... but it probably won't help the Palis- they are saperatet into 2 "states"- Judea and Gaza with both Israel and hate in between. also their cultural back- the arabs countries are in big mess themeselfs and no one will have anough time for them.
as an Israely - thats as good time to open another Intifada...
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
12:14 PM on 02/29/2012
I don't see the purpose at this time.  It's an action without a strategic outcome. Even if they keep it non-violent (which they should) the best they can hope for is some stupid, violent response from the Israelis.
They need to work on picking new leadership and coming up with new strategies.
12:20 PM on 02/29/2012
as an Israeli I agree with you...
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LIbislife
05:59 PM on 02/29/2012
this has been an issue with the Pals for a long time. Bad leadership. They need a united front who is willing to accept ISraels right to exist and be willing to live along side their neighbor in peace.
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trader14
06:11 AM on 02/29/2012
BREAKING NEWS.......Humanitarian Crisis.........Hurry, Hurry everybody, the international welfare parasites are wanting their welfare check. Their running low on suicide belts, rockets, mortars, and nails. Again, I plead with the international community, this is a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions we are witnessing here. Just today, I had to witness the disturbing scene of a man in Gaza having to put cheap marbles in his suicide vest instead of brand new shiny galvanized steel nails.........oh, the collective punishment of Israel is to much to witness........It would be funny.........if it wasn't so true....

Non-violent - gimme a break
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Stoopid American
Trooth, justice, and the American way ...
07:33 AM on 02/29/2012
Mock all you want. Reality will not budge.
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Gui Montag
Former Palestinian Supporter
02:19 PM on 02/29/2012
...and neither will the Palestinians.
03:46 AM on 02/29/2012
Here is the problem, the two sides are negotiating for two different outcomes. The Israelis want tough negotiations to determine the final borders of two states living side by side in peace. The Palestinians want the best deal possible as a basis for continuing their war on Israel. That's the reason every single two state proposal has been rejected by the Palestinians, it required them to live in peace with Israel which they are unwilling to do.
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Stoopid American
Trooth, justice, and the American way ...
07:33 AM on 02/29/2012
Sorry, but the untrustworthiness and desire to maintain the status quo exists plentifully on both sides of this issue.
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
12:15 PM on 02/29/2012
Just totally wrong.
Israelis want to talk and talk while the gobble up more land and drive more Palestinians out of the Occupied territories. Israel's final outcome is the total ethnic cleansing of the West Bank (until they realize they need land in Jordan as well) or pushing the Palestinians into the desert.
Rosin the Bow
Palestine doesn't want peace. Meshaal said so
02:07 PM on 02/29/2012
Israeli settlements are on 1.1% of the WB. If Israel wants to "gobble up" land, they are doing a terrible job of it.
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Aziat
The Answer is 42
02:49 PM on 02/29/2012
What "gobble up more land"? Are you serious or are you being purposely obtuse? The fact is that settlements are on less than 2% of the West Bank and all the building of new settlements you hear about are taking place on that less than 2%.

I know facts can be inconvenient, but please don't lie, you do a diservice to evryone.
11:31 PM on 02/28/2012
What good are peace treaties when they are signed by Palestinians with no intention of honoring them? UN resolutions are of no value if they are issued because of a bias against Israel. Israel will not enter into an agreement that does not recognize its concerns about security. Meanwhile the Palestinians refuse not recognize Israel's security concerns or needs.
The Palestinians and Israelis are further away from a peace agreement than they were in 1967. They cannot agree on anything especially since the Palestinians have been running away from negotiations for the last 3 years.
It is time the Palestinians are told by the UN that they cannot be recognized as a state unless they complete a peace agreement with Israel.
05:37 AM on 02/29/2012
I believe the Palestinians have already been told by the UN, and certainly by the Quartet, that they can not be recognized as a state, unless they complete a Peace Agreement and negotiate to that end with Israel. Israel has as its main, or Only, requirement security and ACCEPTANCE as The Jewish State. Abbas and Hamas, both, have made it clear that they will NEVER ACCEPT The Jewish State, and their reasons for that. Abbas has declared it again this year in Cairo. It precludes continuing war against Israel until *Palestine is liberated from the river to the sea*. i.e. completely anihilated. As I remember very clearly, that was also the reason the Unity Government fell through between the PLO and Hamas last year. Hamas declared that a two-state solution would prevent the ongoing war, whereas Abbas stated - it is on record - that a two-state solutions would only be an intermediary step, and that he needed to do it, to obtain MONEY and support. He tried to work that by an Unilateral Delcaration circumventing making PEACE with Israel. He already refused to negotiate. This year it appears Abbas is planning a rerun of 2011, renewed Unilateral declaration. Although Abbas has been forced to negotiate, I have not heard that negotiations with Israel are taking place.
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NiccoloM
04:19 PM on 02/29/2012
Yeah, but what that state is shouldn't just be determined by what Israel wants and they were ready to during the Oslo Accords. Neither side is fully to blame.
05:37 PM on 02/29/2012
I can agree to that but it shouldn't be completely ignored either.
05:46 PM on 02/29/2012
Palestinians have legitimate claims.

Israel has legitimate claims.

If the agreed on what those claims are, we could all have peace.