Yesterday's violent incidents in and around Oslo are a challenge to Norway's very nature, shattering preconceptions as much as lives and property. More details continue to emerge, changing the initial near-consensus amongst analysts that jihadists were to blame, based on the method, sophistication and targets of the attack. Instead, it now appears more likely that the most violent attack in Europe since 7/7 was in fact not the work of al-Qaeda or linked groups, but was instead the product of a lone individual (or a small group) motivated by unknown extremist factors. In other words, this is more Norway's Oklahoma experience than 9/11 moment.
The initial suspicion of a jihadist connection made much sense. Al-Qaeda has long been seeking a repeat of the 2004 Madrid bombings, which had the political effect of driving an ally out of the US-led force in Iraq, and Norway has been identified by Ayman al-Zawahiri as a target. All this was reflected in a police report last March, which recognised an increase in the threat level in the country. More widely, al-Qaeda has focused on Scandinavia for some time, given the lengthy controversy over cartoons of the Prophet Muhammed which scandalised some Muslims. Copenhagen and to an extent Stockholm have been traditional centres of attention, with the latter experiencing a ground-breaking - albeit flawed - attack last year. However, Norway plays host to a very large and still-growing immigrant/refugee Muslim population located primarily in the Goruddalen valley, just to the east of Oslo. Plots have also previously been intercepted in the country: a year ago naturalised immigrants (an Iraqi, an Uzbek and a Uighur) were arrested over separate schemes to hit targets in Norway and across Scandinavia, whilst the country's leading domestic militant - a Norwegian-Pakistani - continues to draw attention despite being in jail.
The explanation of this as an Islamist attack would therefore be less surprising to the general public than the alternative, despite this initially surprising hypothesis coming to look more and more like the truth. The fact that Norway - the home of the peace prize and a humanitarian force for good worldwide - could suffer from a purely domestic terror attack on such a scale will be beyond belief to the majority of citizens. Indeed, the liberal basis of the country has heavily limited spending on policing and security, almost certainly contributing to the success of this attack.
If this was indeed a right-wing operation it can still reflect Islamisation, albeit in a twisted mirror: immigration may thus lie at the heart of the issue, although in that case it is surprising that Norwegians were attacked rather than foreigners or Muslims, unless the strike was meant to express displeasure at liberal government policies. Meanwhile, given the method, regardless of motive or actor one of the most interesting aspects of this could be a link to al-Qaeda's many releases on attack methods. The most important of these - a comprehensive bomb manual entitled the "complete course", available for download in English since last December - would greatly facilitate the construction of a device like that used in Oslo. In this sense it supplants the old "anarchist's cookbook" used by former generations of extremists, and the worse consequences of its release could yet lie far in the future. (Of course, the irony of using an al-Qaeda manual may also have played to a warped sense of humour.)
Whatever the eventual motive of the attacker, it is in the Norwegian nature to react with courage, as shown by the Prime Minister's brave speech last night. This incident is nonetheless a rude wake-up call to the Norwegians, which will shatter preconceptions as much as it has shattered windows and lives, and has the capacity dramatically to increase inter-community tensions and suspicions. Indeed, only last week many cars were torched near a train station in the Goruddalen area, an unprecedented event blamed on unruly Muslim youths which has exposed fears of increasing ghettoisation. Whatever details emerge, the challenge to the liberal heart of Norway is all too clear, and the debate over immigration in particular is likely to increase dramatically.