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Kit Vaughan

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Gambling With the Future of the Planet

Posted: 24/05/2012 00:00

People hate to think what might happen if we fail to stop the worse effects of climate change. Well, as one senior climate scientist said to me recently: "Impacts are happening already and currently we are going to shoot well past two degrees of global warming. It's time to batten down the hatches and get ready for the major storm... If we act now, we can reduce the overall extent and severity of damage, but we are set for extremes and there will be substantial loss and damage from climate impacts."

These stark words left me with a rapidly sinking feeling: What type of society are we creating, what type of world are we heading towards? Recent science analysis predicts that we are heading for between 4- 6°C of global warming. Such rapid change in our climate system will bring about profound and in some cases catastrophic damages. This is the stuff science fiction movies are made of: Storms and typhoons will be more frequent and will kill more lives and destroy more infrastructures.

Our ecosystems will be irreparably damaged: Think bleached corals, rainforest dieback, desertification and more wildfires. With rising sea levels, coastal zones will be permanently flooded and whole areas will be lost for habitat and agriculture due to salt water intrusion and salinization. The world's most vulnerable countries are under threat: The Maldives and Vanuatu are today known as paradise destinations for honeymooners and beach fans. Well, in a climate impacted future, these places might not exist anymore; they will be lost to the rising sea. It is evident that such major changes across the globe within and across nation states will change the very nature of our political and geographic boundaries, potentially exacerbating migration, conflict and security issues around the globe.

While these changes are happening, the international political discussions around climate change and a global commitment to reduce emissions have come to a near complete standstill. For the last two weeks, experts have once again been meeting for the UN framework convention on climate change in Bonn, Germany, to negotiate a global solution. However, progress is slow and increasingly complex. The political reality is far removed from what is needed scientifically. There is a huge chasm between the growing speed and scale of the problem and the slowdown by governments to address it - and as one negotiator said to me recently: "Whilst the politicians are stalling, the planet is boiling."

This week in Bonn, CARE, Germanwatch, Action Aid and WWF have launched a report called "Into Unknown Territory: The limits to adaptation and reality of Loss and Damage from climate impacts". It concludes that adaptation to climate change alone will no longer suffice and that we have to prepare for a radically different planet. It highlights that the world's poorest and most vulnerable people and countries who have done so little to cause climate change are perversely the ones being impacted the most.

In its poverty-fighting programs around the globe, CARE is more and more confronted with the reality of climate impacts. They are unfolding at the frontline of local communities and upon the world's poorest and most marginalised people, especially women and girls. "We have not had time to recover from the last drought", a woman farmer just told one of my CARE colleagues in Niger. "Now we are going hungry again." After 2005 and 2010, the Sahel currently faces another food crisis. Failed rains are not the only cause, but the situation is worsened by the changing climate of the region.

Whilst nobody has any clear understanding of what such a highly impacted climate future might look like, there are indications of just how bad it can get both for developing and developed regions alike. The solution requires a massive transition and paradigm shift to respond to a world of climate damage, necessitating scaled up investment in disaster risk reduction, emergency planning and all measures to reduce risk. Decision-makers need to refocus their approaches, to tackle vulnerability and build resilience and adaptive capacity. We need to recognize that we don't have all the answers or the solutions. Therefore, continuous learning and research is needed to build our collective capacity to respond to increasing risks and uncertainty.

Unfortunately, the many fears over the on-going global financial crisis, food crisis, population growth and security concerns mean that climate rarely get the attention it deserves. But it is time to realize that climate change is increasingly a main driver behind many of today's - and tomorrow's challenges. We can't return the planet and claim compensation for the damage done. We urgently need global leaders to step up political ambition and action on climate change across the globe - instead of fragmented territorial responses guarding minor national interests. We need recognition that only through truly collaborative global action can we tackle our global climate crisis and that if we don't, the poorest and most vulnerable will suffer the most. But in the end, we will all be losers.

 
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
21:34 on 29/05/2012
we are headed for a total environmental meltdown- but no one is doing anything. world governments and their blind policy decisions will result in changes in the climate and society that will make this century pivotal for human survival . the political and economic institutions we have had for centuries will be totally changed.
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dsws
No owning ideas. Limit only commercial use.
18:24 on 28/05/2012
How much of global GDP goes to repair storm damage? If storm damage doubles over the next 25 years, and world GDP grows at 3% per year, what percentage of global GDP will go to repair storm damage then?

How many species are going extinct from ordinary habitat destruction unrelated to climate change? How many will go extinct from climate change?

Yes, it will be a disaster. More precisely, it will be a contributing factor in a lot of disasters. But there are a lot of disasters anyway.
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Kenneth Alton
17:36 on 25/05/2012
Know thy enemy: The real problem is not climate change, per se, it is willful blindness***.

(*** Willful blindness - a term used in US criminal law to refer to the acts of a person who intentionally fails to be informed about matters that would make the person criminally liable. lt describes an attempt to avoid civil or criminal liability for a wrongful act by intentionally putting oneself in a position to be unaware of facts which create liability.)
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
16:52 on 25/05/2012
"Recent science analysis predicts that we are heading for between 4- 6°C of global warming. "

Is 4-6 degrees C the limit to how much the planet can warm? This was not clear.
19:18 on 25/05/2012
No it isn't the limit, it is the heating predicted by the latest models.
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
20:16 on 25/05/2012
So why did the model not predict the limit. Is it because it can't be predicted?
21:55 on 24/05/2012
I realise now that I live in a different world to you lot - Heaven knows where you get all your so called facts from - certainly not from any realistic source - The sea level is not risiong - The Amntarctic ice has been growing for the past fifty years - The American organization responsible for charting tornadoes etc etc say there is no increase in severity - and who and where are all these people who are dying because of abnormal climate change - show us the bodies - There has been no increase in warming in over a decade - wake up - shake yourself and realize that all your fears were simply a dream with no facts whatsoever to support they were ever anything else! - get a real life!
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Laatab
All The Worlds A Stage
01:54 on 25/05/2012
"Ignorance Is Strength".

George Orwell 1984
02:59 on 25/05/2012
And your point is?
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
03:03 on 25/05/2012
Yes, you do live in a different world. Reality in your world is a blissful dream in ours.
21:10 on 24/05/2012
The first 3 paragraphs of this article reflect the conclusions made by the IPCC in 1990. So the same predication has held up for 22 years. Seems a little odd.
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Jim Milks
Ecologist
10:49 on 25/05/2012
Not odd at all, unfortunately. All it shows is that the conclusions by the first IPCC report were valid–and that little has been done to change things in the years since.
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Nathan0316
TrueBlueTory Age quod agis
18:41 on 24/05/2012
Nothing will change until the issue's begin to affect the rich countries. Even then, as we've seen in the USA, some people will live in denial until the effects of climate change kill them. Never mind all the worsening hurricanes, all the extra tornado's, the severity of the storms increasing and destroying more and more, the ice-caps melting and clearly breaking away, all the people dying because of the obvious changes to the climate, some fools will insist on it being a myth.

These will be the sort of people who will doom the rest of us, just by refusing to accept little alterations to our lifestyles that would extend the planets life.

I mean, really, how hard is it to turn off the lights, turn off the taps while brushing your teeth and put rubbish into a recycling bin?
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
19:24 on 24/05/2012
Perhaps the loss of valuable beach property will catch the eye of some in the U.S. Maybe it will be gradual enough that it escapes notice.
lastpost
see biography
17:04 on 24/05/2012
"what might happen if we fail to stop the worse effects of climate change"
With leaders like ours, global warming is a minor problem.

"Storms and typhoons will be more frequent and will kill more"
That or war. Take one route to annihilation? Not us.

"political reality"
Non sequitur

"Whilst the politicians are stalling"
the scientist don’t really feel justified doing anything unseemly.

"people and countries who have done so little to cause climate change are perversely the ones being impacted the most."
Tell that to the Banksters.

"nobody has any clear understanding of what such a highly impacted climate future might look like"
Would it one in which humanity was finally constrained to shape up, or ship out?

"We need to recognize that we don't have all the answers or the solutions."
Never fear, we have Dave.

"We urgently need global leaders"
Ah! That may be the weak point in our cunning plan.

"in the end, we will all be losers."
As long as we can block the financial transaction tax, there’s hope.
14:26 on 24/05/2012
Let me guess....these scientists are the self same scientists funded by the UN ? Who, if they dont tow the party line and somehow predict catastrophe for the planet, lose future funding ? hmmmm... ever hear the one about the ice age hockey stick effect that never existed ? maybe we should listen to scientists who ARENT funded by the NEW WORLD CONTROLLED UN !
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
19:27 on 24/05/2012
There is no debate that carbon dioxide is rising rapidly. That is a greenhouse gas that is not explainable without a heavy emphasis on human contributions. You may be hiding in fear of those black helicopters, but they do not exist. Paranoia can be helped.
19:27 on 25/05/2012
Paranoia is pretty entertaining, do go on.
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niumarmion
a temporary being
14:25 on 24/05/2012
"Recent science analysis predicts that we are heading for between 4- 6°C of global warming." What time frame is this projection made for? 200 years? What if the time frame is extended to 1,000 years after all of the feedback loops start kicking in?
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phal4875
The world is run by cats; we just feed them.
19:29 on 24/05/2012
Two hundred years is much closer than a thousand. It probably, in fact, is a time frame of less than two hundred years. Don't worry; you will long since have gasped for your last breath.
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Jim Milks
Ecologist
10:56 on 25/05/2012
The time frame for the 4-6ºC warming would be by 2100 AD. As for 3000 AD, we're probably looking at 11ºC if Hansen is right about slow-feedback mechanisms raising climate sensitivity to 6ºC per doubling of CO2 and we top out at 1,000 ppmv CO2.
14:19 on 24/05/2012
I used to be a heavy smoker and dismissed the medical opinions that tobacco was harmful. After all the tobacco companies assured me repeatedly that there was no causal link between smoking and lung cancer. Now I wonder at how deep in denial I must have been. It seems obvious that filling your lungs repeatedly with noxious gasses is harmful.

Same with climate change. The importance of greenhouse gasses in maintaining our present climate has been known for over a hundred years, without the greenhouse effect the earth would be too cold for us to survive. The planet is heated by radiation from the sun. If it wasn't for the greenhouse effect the heat would radiate away, but instead it is trapped giving us a nice warm planet. Add more greenhouse gasses and the planet will get hotter unless there is some compensating mechanism, but so far the evidence suggests that on the contrary it tends to feed on itself.
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Christopher Stahnke
13:35 on 24/05/2012
I'm not sure if the predictions of this article are accurate. The degree of change is mysterious but certainly, barring some mysterious ability of the earth to handle high amounts of greenhouse gases we are headed for trouble. My question here is are we willing to take a chance that the earth (or God) will save us from disaster? There are formal risk-management models we can use for this situation that would counsel us, and would have counseled us twenty years ago, that we should take measures now to avert the disaster even if it had a less than 50% chance of occurring. The chances are much higher than 50% with the data we have now so why the denial? I think the fact Americans (mainly men) are so rabidly against climate science, as can be seen by comments here, is one of the most fascinating sociological phenomena of my lifetime and it coincides by the general loss of credibility of the Western world's greatest contribution to humanity: science. This is just stunning and an even bigger disaster than, perhaps, climate change because it means, essentially, a new dark-age even if warming has no effect.
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niumarmion
a temporary being
14:26 on 24/05/2012
The males of most species are less concerned about future generations.
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ogis
powerdown baby powerdown
19:59 on 24/05/2012
Ever watch the superbowl? Me neither.
13:32 on 24/05/2012
If climate change was a sexy astroid hurtling towards us, everyone would want to fight it because it'd make us feel like Will Smith, we could build massive guns with frickin laser beams to SMASH THAT SHIT UP => kerpow!!! Then we could have a big ticker tape street rally to celebrate the victory of man over pretty much everything. It'd be like in the movies, and totally edge-of-the-seat awesome.

Instead, the only way to fight climate change is by fighting our own greed and overconsumption. Voluntarily. Which I hate to say it is sooooo not going to happen, not even when you account for peak oil (which this article fails to even mention, kinda sloppy guys...).

So all you naysayer gas-guzzling beef-eating yeti-size carbon footprint consumers, go grow some critical analysis skills, maybe read some peer reviewed science journals, and petition your governments to take action on CO2 emissions before the earth decides to kick us out. Saying climate change isn't happening is as rational as saying that tobacco is good for you, or that god made the world in seven days. Seriously. Stop now. Your species needs you to get aware and vote.
NancyY
carpe diem!
11:35 on 24/05/2012
From the article: "Unfortunately, the many fears over the on-going global financial crisis, food crisis, population growth and security concerns mean that climate rarely get the attention it deserves."

Climate change has been a factor since this earth came into existence; human beings didn't cause the ice age. I wish everyone complaining about developed countries causing "global warming" would take a basic geology course, or watch the History Channel's documentary on the subject. As for impoverished nations, I will say this: those who choose to have an excessive number of children per person put pressure on their natural environments, especially in undeveloped countries. If there is "X" amount of food available, it is much wiser to have it divided by three or four people than to have it divided by twelve. The men of some nations have consistently refused to wear condoms to prevent pregnancies or the spread of AIDS and other STDs; they really need to re-think these choices.
11:51 on 24/05/2012
Well said NancyY.
A realistic view ,off our world today.
These problems, are historic, throughout
the history of this planet.
Irrespective, of this ,a plan of action will
have to be drawn up, to prevent loss of
life, and possible food shortages due to
this oncoming problem.
wes
NancyY
carpe diem!
01:28 on 25/05/2012
I remember reading an article in the National Geographic Magazine, "Aids Turns Twenty". Here is the link:

http://science.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/aids-twenty/#page=4

We can't force people to change their cultures or behaviors, but some need to do just that.
BlackbirdHighway
Brawndo's got electrolites!
12:22 on 24/05/2012
"human beings didn't cause the ice age". True, but that does not constitute an argument that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will not affect the climate.

In the spring it rained on my garden. I did not cause that to happen, it was a naturally occurring event. In the summer there was a dry spell, so I poured water on my garden to keep it growing. Now, according to your theory, my pouring water on the garden will have no affect because I did not cause the rain in the spring.

In fact, there is nothing magical about natural events that cause mankind's actions to have no affect.
NancyY
carpe diem!
21:45 on 24/05/2012
People eat beef, and cattle add methane to the atmosphere. The more people being produced on the planet, means more beef...thus more methane. Get people to all become vegetarians and eat beans, guess what, more methane...How about fewer people? How about if people decided to be responsible with their reproductive activities so as not to stress out the environment with their needs?
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