THE BLOG

The Green Index: Who's Voting Green?

02/02/2015 17:36 GMT | Updated 04/04/2015 10:59 BST

One noticeable trend from January's polls is a rise in the Green Party's share of the vote. The exact figures vary from poll to poll, and pollster to pollster, but in analysis of all of January's Populus data - drawing on more than 16,000 interviews conducted across the month - the Greens have climbed to 5.1% (up 1% from December, and up 2.1% from January 2014).

Support for the Green Party is not consistent, however, and there are marked demographic and social differences in where Green support comes from. One way to understand these differences is through an Index - where we compare propensity to vote for the Green Party. In the analysis below, an Index score of 100 is average, showing the group is no more or less likely than average to vote Green. Scores above 100 indicate a greater level of support for the Greens, and scores below 100 a lower than average level of support for the Green Party.

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Demographically, Green Party support clearly skews younger - with those aged 18-24 much more likely to support the party than any other age group. Those aged 45+ are less likely than average to support the party. Nor is support geographically consistent, with support greatest in the East of England, the South West, and London. The party noticeably underperforms in both Scotland and Wales. Support for the Green Party is divided by gender too, with women over-indexing and men under-indexing in support.

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Support for the Green Party increases with educational attainment, with those with a university education (especially a higher degree) more likely to support the party than those who did not attain a degree. The greatest spike in support, however, comes from those still in education.

In the world of work, the party over-indexes in support from public sector workers, and under-indexes in that from private sector workers. Strong support also comes from those outside the workplace.

In terms of past voting behaviour, The Greens' largest bloc of supporters are 2010 Liberal Democrat voters: over a third (37%) of the Green's current support comes from those who voted Liberal Democrat at the last General Election. The Greens draw equally on 2010 Conservative and Labour voters. Reflecting the over-indexing of young people in Green support, almost a quarter (23%) of current Green voters didn't or couldn't vote in 2010.

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While the Green Party, of course, draws support from all types of people, the Green Index shows which people are most likely to say they'll vote for the Party and reveals a typical supporter: a young woman, living or studying in southern England, renting privately, perhaps with a higher degree or public sector role.