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Regime Change in Iran: The Conditions Are Now Ripe

Posted: 30/01/2012 00:00

Life as a mullah in Iran must be pretty disconcerting. All those in power in Tehran today are no doubt deeply worried about their economic wellbeing and the future of their rule. Sanctions have come in waves and are sapping away at the foundations of the national economy. The US and the European Union are intent on disabling the Iranian central bank, the oil industry, and even the regime's ability to trade gold and diamonds.

If economic problems were not enough, the mullahs' main regional ally, Syria, is descending into civil war. From Tehran, it must seem like only a matter of time before Damascus falls - much like Tripoli did - leaving the mullahs with no nearby ally other than war-torn Iraq.

Those in power are probably constantly looking over their collective shoulder. As with other countries of North Africa and the Middle East, Iranians are a youthful, restive people who have shown a willingness to rise up against totalitarianism in the past.

Conditions are, in short, ripe for regime change. All that is required is for an organised opposition to rise up and take the reins of power. For the mullahs, this last point is key: the Iranian opposition, the People's Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI/MEK), must be annihilated at all costs if they are to survive.

Within this context it is easy to see why the 3,400 men and woman living in Camp Ashraf, Iraq, are at the top of the list of Tehran's targets. These people are PMOI/MEK sympathisers and have represented a thorn in the side of the Iranian regime for decades.

Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, Iran's stooge in Baghdad, threatened to dismantle the camp by the end of 2011 and scatter the residents. Given that Iraqi troops had already raided the camp on more than one occasion, killing dozens, there were real fears that the camp's end would also be the end of the residents themselves. The deadline was only extended when PMOI/MEK leader Maryam Rajavi agreed that the residents be re-housed in Camp Liberty, a former US military base in the Iraqi capital.

Mrs Rajavi's agreement was given reluctantly and only after receiving assurances from the U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton and that the United Nations would monitor conditions in Camp Liberty, where many residents faced a long stay. Sadly, this trust has been betrayed within weeks. Not only is the Iraqi government reneging on its promises to respect the lives and decency of the Ashraf community, the UN is keeping silent about the transformation of Camp Liberty into a concentration camp, a place more fit for cattle than human beings.

"Do you think the UN's action with regard to Camp Ashraf and Camp Liberty is unusual?", asked Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York, during his speech to an international conference earlier this month. "They're ignoring the fact that these people are going to live in one square kilometre. They're ignoring the fact that there's no drinking water in Camp Liberty". There is not a "single road with asphalt in the camp" or a "single piece of green area", Mr Giuliani told the conference, which was organised by the French Committee for Democracy and Human Rights in Iran. This was not a camp, he said, but a prison.

"The Iraqi government has refused to allow any of the residents to visit because they don't want them to see how terrible the conditions of their imprisonment are going to be", he continued. "The UN has not objected to any of this. It is simply disgraceful for the UN to allow this to go forward. It's disgraceful for the UN to submit to the demands of a regime like Maliki's and ultimately to close its eyes to the fact that really what they're doing is submitting to the demands of the Iranian mullahs". Al-Maliki was, the event heard, "just a puppet on a string doing the bidding of the Iranian mullahs."

To add salt to the wounds, the UN ambassador to Iraq, Martin Kobler, has failed to deny the most outrageous Iranian claims. According to the Iranian ambassador to Baghdad, hundreds of the Camp Ashraf residents are willing to be transferred to Tehran - where, as PMOI supporters they would face prison, torture and possibly execution. The United Nations considers the PMOI/MEK to be a terrorist organisation, according to the latest Iranian diplomatic salvo. Why doesn't Mr Kobler deny these falsehoods? Whose side is the UN on?

Ashraf residents must believe that theirs is a story of betrayal. It was the US, after all, that, after liberating Iraq, promised to protect them if they agreed to disarm. The US is out of Iraq, but the residents are far from safe. A second betrayal is now in the making. For a body such as the United Nations, silence in the face of oppression is nothing short of scandalous.

 
Life as a mullah in Iran must be pretty disconcerting. All those in power in Tehran today are no doubt deeply worried about their economic wellbeing and the future of their rule. Sanctions have come i...
Life as a mullah in Iran must be pretty disconcerting. All those in power in Tehran today are no doubt deeply worried about their economic wellbeing and the future of their rule. Sanctions have come i...
 
 
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08:56 PM on 02/03/2012
Change is long overdue in Iran. The brutal regime has remained in power by brutal force. It must be confronted. The people of Iran and their organised Resistance are well capable to rid the world of this medieval theocratic dictatorship. The West must stop collaborating with the tyrants in Iran by enchaining their democratic opposition. Ashraf represents the hopes of millions in Iran who seek freedom, peace, justice and human rights. It must be protected from the Iraqi savages who take orders from Iran to destroy life en mass. Well put Lord Carlile.
09:59 PM on 02/01/2012
I see Lord Carlile's article has rattled the cage of the animals who support Iran's barbaric rule (that has a backbone consisting of rape, execution, stoning, torture, paedophilia, drug trafficking). Regime change is coming, the opposition will grow until that change comes, and the MEK heads that opposition. Time for the UN and US to support the MEK in their battle against the murderous regime in Iran.
09:53 PM on 02/01/2012
Great article Lord Carlile. Regime change is afoot in Iran, to the deathly fear of the mullahs. The UN and US have indeed betrayed Ashraf and their promises about protection. Hopefully we shall see justice for this one day. I pity those below who have negative remarks about the MEK, no doubt the well-known stooges of the Iranian regime. How sad that some people can't see how the MEK paves the way for the revolution and the Iran that will be free of the mullahs one day soon!! They have many loyal Iranian and non-Iranian supporters, supporting them and wishing them all the success in the world!
05:55 PM on 01/31/2012
Huff post please tell me why you haven't printed my post? What is untrue about this man lobbying for transexuals and his support of Israel. Please print my post now!!!!!
02:12 AM on 01/31/2012
PMOI/MEK is a cult. What is the difference between it and the mullahs? both are oppressive to women. Women in PMOI/MEK have still got hejab and headscarf after 33 years of living outside Iran. Their minds are as twisted as Mullahs even perhapse more. They are out of touch with %100 Iranians inside and outside.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Pharcee
Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity
12:34 AM on 01/31/2012
1953
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11:02 PM on 01/30/2012
Brits have screwed up the Middle East more than enough.
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Freenation
11:02 PM on 01/30/2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/08/mek-lobbying_n_913233.html
"That agenda: to secure the removal of the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) from the U.S. government's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. A Marxian Iranian exile group with cult-like qualities, Mujahideen-e Khalq was responsible for the killing of six Americans in Iran in the 1970s, along with staging a handful of bombings. But for a terrorist organization with deep pockets, it appears there's always hope"

perhaps lord can read this article and try writing articles in some other places like jpost, wsj etc where he will find more forthcoming readership....
09:16 PM on 01/30/2012
So now Nouri-al-Maliki, the elected leader of Iraq, has become a stooge for Iran. This British Lord has the information we need to overthrow the Iranian government. Were does he get all this intelligence about Iran. I use the term intelligence loosely. We practically put Nouriki in charge of the country but now that we are out of there Nouriki has become a liability. I wish this nobleman in England would stay out of it. The only thing he does is stir the pot in favor of a war we cannot win. In the end we will all lose. I am curious to know if he has dual nationality. It would be good to know were his interests lie.
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Freenation
08:30 PM on 01/30/2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Carlile,_Baron_Carlile_of_Berriew

wow...seems like neocon takeover at HP...this guy is supposed to be a 'liberal democrat' guess something like local Lieberman when he used to call himself democrat...
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Norma Ward
01:46 PM on 01/30/2012
All that Western sanctions have done is drive Iran into the willing arms of China, a nation that is quite comfortable investing in the pariah nations of the world. Here is an article that shows how China is investing tens of billions of dollars in Iran's massive oil and natural gas reserves at the expense of developed nations:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/12/iran-oil-giant.html

Iran will still be able to sell huge volumes of both commodities to China (and India) and, more importantly, it is these two nations that will be the drivers of the world's economy in the coming decades.
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11:21 AM on 01/30/2012
"It was the US..after liberating Iraq,.." is that a joke ?
"silence in the face of oppression is nothing short of scandalous." i supose that works for Israel's exactions too ..
01:40 AM on 01/30/2012
UN is a real shame! They let people be massacred in Srebrenica, they let people be slaughtered in Rwanda,... They'll let people die in Ashraf. UN is all about mony business. Human beings are forgotten.
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Philip J Sparrow
When your work speaks for itself, keep quiet
01:42 PM on 01/30/2012
It wasn't necessarily the UN's fault that the genocide in Rwanda was allowed to take place; more at fault were the US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, and her French and Beligian counterparts for downplaying the severity of the situation in contradiction of what her own military personnel on the ground were reporting.

You could argue that this constitutes a failure of the UN system, allowing Security Council vetoes for example, but had it not been for the obstructionism of individual states the UN could, and hopefully would, have intervened successfully.