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Lord Weidenfeld of Chelsea

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An Icy Winter Threatens

Posted: 12/12/11 12:16 GMT

Gloomy weeks for the western world: the elections in Egypt and Russia threaten to transform the Arab spring as well as the hoped for political thaw with Moscow into an icy winter. In both cases the high expectations of a democratic development have proved to be bitter illusions.

The army leadership in Cairo is solidifying its foothold in the areas of security as well as every day politics and economy. Arguably, the old generals vacate their positions for younger colonels but the junta at the top is in control. Without any haste it is seeking partners within the camp of Islamists of all different shades - from the traditional Muslim Brotherhood to the mightily growing Salafists.

Whereas the former are politically more flexible and attract supporters from different strata and political nuances, the latter are fanatical, uncompromising, and faithful to the Sharia and the notion of universal jihad. Their hatred against America and Israel, their connections to Hamas and Hezbollah and their backing of a dangerous, aggressive policy in Gaza makes them a big political risk factor.

All this must be seen against a backdrop of a catastrophic economic situation in this country of 81 million Egyptians. Tourism and investments from abroad could reach zero point soon.

It was not only dreamers in the free world who had hoped that the "bloodless" fall of the Soviet system would bring about a new era of democratic development, rule of law and a liberal constitution in Russia. The elections which were meant to procure Vladimir Putin a second term in office and thus 12 years as autocratic ruler of this gigantic realm, seemed to have been accompanied, alas, by attempts at intimidation of voters and the prosecution of leaders of the opposition and sympathisers. These autocratic, arbitrary tendencies should worry even the most moderate political realists.

The consequences of both elections go far beyond the immediate political scene. They open up dangerous prospects at a time when the pillars of the free world - The United States and Europe - are shaken by crises, disputes and doubt in the area of world economy and internal labour markets. This is going to be a severe winter for us. Only if we read the signal correctly can we weather the cold.

 
Gloomy weeks for the western world: the elections in Egypt and Russia threaten to transform the Arab spring as well as the hoped for political thaw with Moscow into an icy winter. In both cases the h...
Gloomy weeks for the western world: the elections in Egypt and Russia threaten to transform the Arab spring as well as the hoped for political thaw with Moscow into an icy winter. In both cases the h...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Blackorpheus
the decisive blows are always struck left-handed
05:54 PM on 12/13/2011
Lord Weidenfeld of Chelsea should donate some of his money to the democrat minorities in the Arab Spring uprisings.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
balamo
12:05 PM on 12/13/2011
lord wiedenfeld of chelsea? are you kidding?
12:55 AM on 01/16/2012
Read his bio, available at the website for the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (which he founded). He's not kidding, and that bio is no joke either. It's pretty impressive. Granted, the titles seem hokey here in the US, but the accolades aren't from a Cracker Jack box.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sheldon archer
Facebook name is Yuyun Archer
11:59 AM on 12/13/2011
Won't be long before everyone says that things were better under Mubarak and Gadaffi.
11:16 AM on 12/13/2011
m
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
thanadar
Jury nullification works.
01:00 AM on 12/13/2011
Egypt has *never* been a democracy, nor has Russia. Why, in Allah's (or God's) name, would anyone believe they would start now?
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darquelourd
You Get What You Play For
09:23 PM on 12/12/2011
largely a predicament of our own making, milord. too bad we wasted all that money, blood and good will on Iraq and Afghanistan. previous to that - too bad we always supported dictators like the Shah and Saddam over real democracy in the region. you reap what you sow and we've been screwing these folks over since (for the USA) 1945 for the UK 1917.
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disporting
Weapons not food, not homes, not shoes
08:48 PM on 12/12/2011
Will you Brits allow this US citizen to move over there for better healthcare at a reasonable cost?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sheldon archer
Facebook name is Yuyun Archer
11:56 AM on 12/13/2011
Haha. Hope that you are prepared to wait about a year for your free hospital treatment.
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Catriona
Wha daur meddle wi me?
12:15 AM on 12/18/2011
Total rubbish. A few weeks, or none at all for emergencies.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheOin2012
My micro-brew is empty.
07:36 PM on 12/12/2011
So what do we make of it? There's nothing here but re-statement of the obvious.
06:32 PM on 12/12/2011
Changes that start out seemingly benevolent and just do not always end up that way. The French Revolution is a prime example of a political metamorphasis that went from hopeful all the way to demonic.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
08:37 PM on 12/18/2011
I remember saying at the time that I expected the Muslim Brotherhood to be big winners in Egypt and all the "experts" on here told me I was wrong. Sorry, but I think the Generals will fail and that they won't go quietly.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Eric Ehrmann
Blogs on sports and politcs from Brazil
06:30 PM on 12/12/2011
If anything, this is an indication of the limits of the trajectory of public diplomacy. Front loading the balance of power equation with too much information take a toll on realpolitik. And, ironically, it was Putin himself who created the political opening for second generation oligarchs like Prokhorev. While Komsomol golden boy Khodorosvsky sold Levis on the streets of Moscow, Prokhorvev was part of the elite thanks to father sports bureaucrat staus and he got internationalexposure, otherwise he would have been accused of "cosmopolitanism" in last days of Evil Empire. Karma cuts both ways. As for Arab Spring, call Patton Boggs, ask Frank Wisner, Jr for details
05:58 PM on 12/12/2011
Yet again, the most important matter for Weidenfeld is, of course, promoting the idea of Islam versus the West. This guy runs a group called the Strategic Institute, which looks lovely and fluffy and all about bringing Islam and the West together (like we ever had an issue with them since the 16th century until we discovered their oil!). Truth is, Weidenfeld has been a Zionist activist, funder and mouthpiece for a generation and more.

Israel has 6 million of the world's 7 billion human beings. It's a complete and total irrelevance to us and, more than this, actually the largest single threat to peace on earth.

Good luck to them- they'll need it against Iran.
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modeforjoe
We had the experience, but we missed the meaning
01:58 AM on 12/13/2011
Feldstein of Chelsen-feld.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
08:40 PM on 12/18/2011
I think that's a pretty racist thing to say actually.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
08:39 PM on 12/18/2011
I agree with you that his interest in Egypt starts and stops with what it means for Israel. That's kinda insulting to the hundred million people who live there.
05:45 PM on 12/12/2011
Time to overthrow the US miIitary dictatorsh­­­­­­­­­­i­p of Egypt once and for alI. Sadat betrayed the Egyptian peopIe big time. Time to reverse Sadat's treaty with the entity. lt is well past time to overthrow the US supported military dictatorsh­­­­­­­­­­­­i­p of Egypt by the new democratic­­­­­­­­­­­­a­I­I­y eIected ParIiament of Egypt. So caIIed "isreaI is stoIen PaIestine. JerusaIem beIongs to the PaIestinia­­­­­­­­­­n­s­. The Egyptian treaty with the entity should be canceled, and close the Suez canal to the entity.
06:01 PM on 12/12/2011
BANG ON!

Let Israel go it alone. Here's what every American living under debt needs to know:

http://todayfreedom.blogspot.com/2011/10/here-ya-go-america.html
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Kyle10
those who sharpen perception tend to be antisocial
07:45 PM on 12/12/2011
Dammit. I didn't come over here to be slapped in the face with non-US news reality.

Nearly spilled my freedom fries...
06:27 PM on 12/12/2011
Yes, a vicious conflagration filled with destruction and a horrific human misery from the Nile to the southern border of Lebanon (at least) is just what the world has always needed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NTT
Fighting rants with facts
05:40 PM on 12/12/2011
I believe that the Egypt-Russia similarity is a false one.

- While both regimes are likely to be authoritarian, there's a difference between a secular dictatorship and a theocracy. The former is repugnant, but usually retains at least some pragmatism and logic; the latter is fanatic and can only lead to primitivism -- see Iran & Saudi Arabia for textbook examples.
- Russia is in a much better economic position, compared to Egypt. Economic success is of paramount importance. Relative welfare leads to cultural and human development. Poverty results in primitivism. People who are staed look for freedom; people who are hungry look for someone to hang.

I see a high probability that Russia will evolve towards democracy, despite Putin. Unfortunately, I have to say the opposite about Egypt. The West should clearly state that effective economic aid (in the form of a "Marshal Plan" for Egypt) is contingent on social, religious and political liberal reforms.
06:11 PM on 12/12/2011
"can only lead to primitivis­m"

Absolute nonsense.

To all extents and purposes all of Europe remained a theocracy until the 15th century at least. Ireland remained in the grip of the Church until the 1960s at the absolute latest.

Why is it we white westerners assume that theocracy only breeds "primitivism" if it is brown or Islamic?

Tibet was and will one day once again be a theocracy - the Dalai Lama (one of the most popular figures in the entire modern world) is a God-King with absolute executive power.

The Caliphate was one of the most astounding periods of human social, scientific, academic and literary flourishing the world had ever seen.

To be frank, if Capitol Hill (with its Offices For Sale To the Highest Bidding Lobby) is the embodiment of democracy then it's no wonder they aren't too keen on our form of government. And besides, democracy could hardly be called a roaring success - look at the history of the US and Europe - endless massacre and bloodshed and theft. All of it "democratic".

Whatever the east wants, the east must have. That's just how democracy works, after all.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NTT
Fighting rants with facts
11:39 AM on 12/13/2011
I think you inadvertantly just proved my point.
>>>"Europe remained a theocracy until the 15th century"
Precisely. And it was primitive. So was Tibet, when it was independent. Dalai Lama is "one of the most popular figures in the entire modern world" because of his non-violent approach, despite the victimisation of Tibet.

The Caliphate was only "flourishing" in comparison to the even more primitive Europe of the time. What was "relatively advanced" in the 8th century is primitive in the 21st.

As for your throwing mud at the Western democracy and its achievements, the proof of the pudding is in the eating: it's the Arabs/Muslims who queue for the right to immigrate to the West; not the other way around.

>>>"Whatever the east wants, the east must have."
Sure. But they must bear the responsibility for it, not forever blame others. And while they can have what they want, we don't have to like it or cooperate with it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dkrypt
Unencumbered by political correctness
04:53 PM on 12/12/2011
" . . . the high expectations of a democratic development have proved to be bitter illusions"

For conservatives, the Egyptian illusion ended when it became clear that the Muslim Brotherhood and even more militant Islamists would be allowed to run for office (they're winning the elections btw, not that the military is going to hand over power to them). Any remaining illusion was shattered with the hand raping of female reporters by "pro-democracy" demonstrators (chanting anti-USA, anti-Israeli slogans).

However the illusion still lives on for many on the left. Illusion trumps reality for the left. They want to believe that all people are good (except for conservatives).
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Annoula
Enough about me!
05:19 PM on 12/12/2011
"However the illusion still lives on for many on the left. Illusion trumps reality for the left. They want to believe that all people are good (except for conservati­ves)..."
Really, dkrypt?
As opposed to...?
Conservatives' beliefs that EVERYBODY [except Israel] is an enemy of the US and they are out to get us so we need to attack them "pre-emptively'?
We all know how well that went under the Bush-Cheney regime...
And we are still paying the price!
Why do you think the national debt is in the trillions??
Wars are very expensive [and definitely not worth fighting simply because the neocons' doctrine demands it!]
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
balamo
12:07 PM on 12/13/2011
yiasou annoula!
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
08:47 PM on 12/18/2011
I know this might blow your circuits, but it's possible to be pro-democracy and anti-USA/anti-Israel at the same time. They aren't mutually exclusive positions. Unencumbered by political correctness you might be, but you're labouring under some serious assumptions none the less!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dkrypt
Unencumbered by political correctness
12:58 PM on 12/19/2011
It's also possible to support democracy and oppose Islamism.
Syllogizer
Barely Left of Pobedonostsev
04:32 PM on 12/12/2011
I wish I could say that Lord Wedenfield is helping us "read the signals correctly". But I cannot.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gavrielle
Empty... Empty... Empty...
05:00 PM on 12/12/2011
And how would you read them? Or are you just commenting to call him wrong because you have a personal dislike for the man or his politics?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NTT
Fighting rants with facts
05:10 PM on 12/12/2011
I think s/he does not like his name...
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modeforjoe
We had the experience, but we missed the meaning
01:59 AM on 12/13/2011
It's not "field." It's "feld". As in "feldstein."