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Mehdi Hasan

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Come on Ed, You Don't Need Tony to Win

Posted: 11/07/2012 16:52

"It is my rejection of... New Labour nostalgia that makes me the modernising candidate at this election," wrote Labour leadership candidate Ed Miliband in an essay for the Fabian Society in August 2010. At the time, the younger Miliband was the outsider, the underdog; brother David, the Blairite candidate, was the hot favourite.

But it was Mili-E, not Mili-D, who was crowned king of the Labour party the following month, in Manchester, after stressing, again and again, the need for "change" over "continuity". His campaign was based on moving on from 'New Labour', apologising for the invasion of Iraq.

So why is the Labour leader joining Tony Blair for a high-profile charity event at the Emirates Stadium this evening? Why has he allowed Blairites to brief that their hero is a close adviser and mentor to Miliband?

"It's a mistake," says a shadow cabinet minister, referring to this evening's event. "Tens of thousands of people have joined the party since Ed became leader. They'd either left [under Blair and Brown] or refused to join. Why demotivate them like this?"

One aide to Miliband tells me he has "serious concerns" about the meeting with Blair: the anti-war left consider TB to be a "warmonger" and "war criminal" while the Daily-Mail-reading right loathe the former PM, and his wife Cherie, as money-grubbing, perma-tanned frauds. So who does Miliband end up appealing to, or even appeasing, standing shoulder to shoulder with Blair this evening? He has, so far, avoided the Tory tag of "Son of Brown" - does he really need the tag of "Son of Blair"?

However, a former member of Blair's Cabinet says the event is a "no brainer" for the Labour leader: "By being seen with Tony, he unites the [Labour] party."

Hmm. I'm not sure a leader with a double-digit lead in the polls, a noticeable edge over the PM at PMQs and a series of astute judgement calls (including demanding the resignations of Rebekah Brooks and Bob Diamond) under his belt needs to worry about uniting his party. Success tends to breeds success - and hangers-on.

So while I understand what Blair gets out of the joint appearance at the Emirates Stadium, I'm not sure what Miliband gets out of it. Yes, the former premier won three consecutive general elections - the only Labour leader to do so! - but, as I wrote on the New Statesman blog back in March when TB staged his last 're-entry' into British politics, his legacy is suffused in myths and legends and so it is worth (re)considering these five key points:

1) In July 1994, Blair inherited a 13% poll lead over the Tories from the late John Smith; it was handed to him on a plate. Despite extending it to a massive 29 points in June 1995, on election day in May 1997, Labour beat the tired, divided, lacklustre, scandal-ridden Tories by - wait for it - just under 13 percentage points.

2) Labour lost four million votes on Blair's watch, between 1997 and 2005 (and another million on Brown's watch, in 2010). From the moment Blair walked through the black door of Number 10, the Labour vote share started to decline and the 'master' himself could do little to halt or reverse it in the subsequent general elections.

3) Blair won his three election victories, in an age of affluence, against John Major, William Hague and Michael Howard (who picked up the baton from Iain Duncan Smith). He never had to face a tough opponent - be it Ken Clarke, who the Tories crazily rejected again and again, or Blair's own 'heir', David Cameron.

4) Blair benefited from a voting system that is biased in favour of the Labour Party: in 2005, for example, TB secured a third term, with a healthy 66-seat majority, on just 35.2% of the vote (that is, one in five eligible British voters). Five years later, however, Cameron's Conservatives couldn't get a majority in the Commons despite winning 36.1% of the vote.

5) By the time Blair reluctantly left office, in the wake of a series of embarrassing scandals and unpopular wars, his sheen had worn off - the Tories' had a near-uninterrupted poll lead over Blair's Labour Party between December 2005 and Blair's resignation in May 2007. Unlike Blair, Ed Miliband inherited a Labour Party trailing the Tories in the polls in September 2010.


The irony is that to continue to be seen as a moderniser, Miliband has to distance himself from the uber-moderniser, Blair. New Labour isn't new anymore.

 

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"It is my rejection of... New Labour nostalgia that makes me the modernising candidate at this election," wrote Labour leadership candidate Ed Miliband in an essay for the Fabian Society in August 201...
"It is my rejection of... New Labour nostalgia that makes me the modernising candidate at this election," wrote Labour leadership candidate Ed Miliband in an essay for the Fabian Society in August 201...
 
 
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07:02 PM on 07/17/2012
Blair the " soft Tory" the fake socialist destroyed Gordon the firebrand socialist... front runner in the nineties second only to Smith
should have been Smith PM ...and Gordon ...........no wonder Gordon became twisted watching
the great creep the FAKE ...strut his stuff
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09:35 AM on 07/16/2012
TB, the most successful prime minister ever, winning 3 elections on the bounce, respected around the world cannot be dismissed. I cannot think of a living politician that can match his achievements. And I am not a fan either.
01:28 PM on 07/31/2012
Maggie
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Dombeyandson
07:53 AM on 07/16/2012
Perhaps Cherie Blair will pay back to the Labour Party the £7,500 she incurred for her haircust during her campaigning with hubby Tony for his re-election. Labour Party were daft enough to pay it out of Party funds. Blair may have originally been an electable breath of fresh air for Labour originally but he soon acuired bad breath with his personal ambitions to make as much money from his advantage as possible. Made great friends with Berlasconi and had consequent wonderful holidays. Plus Tone's inept behaviour over Iraq - another Jingoist wanting the accolades
08:22 PM on 07/15/2012
Bliar stinks, he's about as popular as a dog egg in a wedding punch bowl.

Move on!
10:45 AM on 07/15/2012
milli E has always been told what to do, he lacks the sharpness to create openings and weaknesses within an opponent. the lead he has is not through his knowledge or experience but through the mistakes of others which he has struggled to take advantage of. he needs blair to teach him how to be more media wise, more alert to opportunities to capitolise on the not so apparent weakness of your opponent. TB was a victim of his own popularity he somehow believed we would follow his every word, he forgot to look for himself and began believing the hype others created. Ed has limited time to learn what he needs to or by the election he will be beaten by the faster thinking Cam. who may have the funds to begin buying public votes by investing and creating jobs as things hopefully pick up.
01:39 AM on 07/15/2012
Blairs yesterdays man by meeting him Ed looks like he cant stand on his own two feet and looks week.
11:14 PM on 07/12/2012
There's nothing "new" or "forward thinking" about Blair. Certainly not anything of the "modernising" about him. How is it that Milliband doesn't see that clearly? This just seems like further evidence that Mill-E isn't as sharp and savvy as he needs to be. And that he may not be the quick learner he needs to be.
09:59 PM on 07/16/2012
The tories are stamping around like dinosaurs-they are dinosaurs.
You'd think Milleband would see the amazing opportunities in this aftermath of discredited politics to identify a politics that would start down the road of being real.
I think the media and politicians are increasingly alienated and absurd/grotesque,and making politics useless,unrepresentative and unavailable to ordinary people to effect the changes that are obviously needed.
Instead politicians and the media soft-focus,disinform,misinform,infantalise the public at will,preventing real politics from being relevant,effective and working.
Politics is like one of those genetically altered mosquitoes that cant do the business.All zip and no trousers.Inceasingly useless static to cover manifest corruption.
No change.
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05:44 PM on 07/12/2012
This is going to kill the Labour parties chance of ever winning another election. In my opinion it's a set up to ensure labour can't win and that the tories get another 4 years to completely finish of the NHS and welfare system. If they can contrive a war they can certainly contrive to make labour unelectable.
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Mark B Robertson
05:17 PM on 07/12/2012
Tories will be happy that the Toxic Master of Lies is back.
04:07 PM on 07/12/2012
The party for war crimes might as well have a war criminal as its leader.
05:16 PM on 07/12/2012
PROOF.
05:57 PM on 07/12/2012
john scarlets email, stating that if they wanted a war, the evidence would need massaged some more.
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Paul Wagland
Resistance is fertile
05:58 PM on 07/12/2012
Proof that Blair is a war criminal? Where have you been?!
05:42 PM on 07/12/2012
Congratulations. This is my official "Dumbest comment of the day"

The party for war crimes? You do realise that the tories start more wars than any other party?? Did you miss the invasion of Lybia? Or the falkland islands or ww2?

Or are you, as I suspect, merely simple....?
05:55 PM on 07/12/2012
your right, my post should have read, "one of the parties which support war criminals welcomes its spiritual leader." I usually just see the tories as the party for rich people, and labour the party for war crimes, but your right, they are both the parties for rich people and war crimes.
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Paul Wagland
Resistance is fertile
06:02 PM on 07/12/2012
Do you understand the difference between 'war' and 'war crimes'?

WW2 and the Falklands conflict were in response to foreign aggression. When did we invade Libya exactly?

I'm no Tory, but the two recent illegal wars are clearly Iraq and Afghanistan.
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vividrick
I came, I saw...I had a cup of tea!
02:08 PM on 07/12/2012
Why Ed Why? It's same like if Cameron wheeled in Thatcher, if you're gonna remind us of the past, people are naturally gonna disengage! Ed, you said it was wrong for us to go into Iraq, much to your Brother's displeasure, so why share a platform with one of the orchestraters of that literally bloody disaster???

!!! ...Grrr I'm angry about this!!!
03:28 PM on 07/12/2012
I suspect there are a lot more angry people who feel the same as you.
Tony Blair is a self-seeking ego-maniac who who put his own selfish desire to please America and George Bush before the lives of our troops and the lives of the innocent people of Iraq.
I will never vote for a party that employs this war criminal.
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vividrick
I came, I saw...I had a cup of tea!
03:31 PM on 07/12/2012
Well said my friend.
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godsamyth
06:45 PM on 07/15/2012
the sunday telegraph has an article that involves ed milliband with Blair in Blairs African involvement , more conflict in Africa and the US military you won,t see the blood on Blairs hands
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06:25 AM on 07/12/2012
Tony Blair is a hindrance, I agree, but the idea that Ed Miliband can lead the Labour Party to victory in a general election is laughable. The coalition government is a disgrace and should be way down in the opinion polls, but little Ed has not connected with the British people, does not have the gravitas to give people confidence in him and lacks the personality in the House of Commons.

He is a place holder for someone else, I hope. If not we will get another term under Cameron.
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virtusfides
11:04 AM on 07/12/2012
At least we know now where Labour is standing for! More wars based on lies, more spending, more support for bankers and more support for the rich.Where they are not standing for is Peace,Honesty,the British people. We know what they want: Greed and Power and they need a solicitor to spin us a story that let believe the people that they are the Party to rule! Thanks to Tony Blair we never had it so bad. Thanks to Tony Blair we need special terrorist security annex his own private and by tax payer paid army to protect him. Let us point it out clear, he is a War Criminal who comes away with it because his USA ties!
05:17 PM on 07/12/2012
TONY BLAIR.
12:36 AM on 07/12/2012
Bliar must be feeling on top of the world this, well I suppose he always does being the megalomaniac that he is.
11:15 PM on 07/11/2012
bliar has stabbed many people in the back, be carefull ED you WILL be next
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godsamyth
06:46 PM on 07/15/2012
After Blair has been given an israeli passport