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Fuel Crisis: You Might Think Britain Has a Problem - And You'd Be Right

Posted: 30/03/2012 00:00

We've got a senior government minister suggesting Britons turn their homes into potential deathtraps; we've got police being called in to break up fights in long queues at petrol stations. You might think Britain has a problem.

And you'd be right. But it goes a long way beyond Francis Maude's potentially deadly gaffe, and the Unite tanker drivers' concern over their pay and conditions.

Because what's caused this problem is a threat to the supply of fuel in Britain, a threat that won't go away after the last stamp has been put on the inevitable deal between Unite and employers.

There's the threat that global supplies could be threatened by political instability or war; the threat of disruption caused by natural disaster and industrial catastrophe; and most of all there's the fact that oil is a finite resource and we've already passed its peak supply.

And our national life is built, to a totally unnecessary and harmful degree, around this commodity. The words of one driver in Plymouth pretty well sum it up: "Most of us are crippled without our cars."

That's not the fault of individuals. The facts of house prices and the push to make home ownership the default option, plus the shortage of employment and the pressure for worker "flexibility", has left huge numbers of Britons commuting great distances each week to their work.

Pressures on schooling, and the closure of local schools, have left huge numbers of children relying on cars and buses to reach their schools, when once walking to school was a standard part of everyone's childhood.

And as we saw the last time we went through this cycle, we're utterly reliant on fuel - and large amounts of it - to move all of the basic stuffs of life - milk, bread, vegetables, eggs - to the shops we use.

Francis Maude is now going to be forever remembered as "the jerry can man", and the media in the next day or so will be consumed with accounts of minor hysteria about this event.

But let's all take a deep breath and think. If it is like this now, what would it be like if the Straits of Hormuz were blocked by conflict? Or if a major supply is taken out long term by an environmental or industrial disaster? Or when Chinese/Indian consumption rises and supplies fall, doubling the price?

Times columnist Caitlin Moran has come up with one solution to this, on Twitter: "Two petrol-crises in ten years. Fuck this. I'm going self-sufficient *starts compressing zooplankton under sedimentary rock*."

Nice line if you've got a few million years. But since we don't, there are alternatives.

First, we could dramatically improve public transport so more people can use it to get to work, to school, to their lives. And we could seriously promote electric cars - for situations where that private transport is really essential. Both those steps would also save many thousands of lives by cutting air pollution and make our cities and towns far more pleasant places, by the way. That's what the Green Party is offering in its plans for London's future.

And we could start to relocalise our economies. Instead of shipping carrots from Scotland to East Anglia, then back to Edinburgh and Glasgow for sale - not an extreme example but an everyday occurrence, we could start to rebuild the network of market gardens that once surrounded our cities, and supplied food direct into stores. We could rebuild a local dairy industry, and even return to local flour mills and bakeries.

We could, and we must, for we really have no choice, as Francis Maude as so helpfully assisted in demonstrating.

 
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19:09 on 02/04/2012
Rising demand from China and India are the principle cause of the increase in world oil prices.

China is now the worlds largest auto market and second largest economy. The era of cheap oil is over.

China is using more and more oil every day and the world's supply and new discoveries can not keep up.
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21:48 on 09/04/2012
New discoveries haven't kept up with consumption since the '60s. What we're using now are discoveries from decades ago that were deemed uneconomical to exploit at the prices back then.
What's next? Solids-to-liquids - kerogen, "shale oil" (which is not oil but a solid), coal - just like the Nazis and South Africa used to do. At several times the carbon emissions per unit of energy. Fun times ahead.
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19:27 on 01/04/2012
We'll move over to electric cars and stop transporting veggies it when it becomes uneconomic. Which it will as oil prices rise to a degree that it becomes....uneconomic.
People will use public transport more when it makes economic sense for them to do so.
I'm inclined to let the markets manage it, rather than oblige people to do things they don't want to do.
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NJP1
12:41 on 01/04/2012
Few grasp oil supply reality
Until 2005, production had grown at about 7% annually since 1900
Then in 2005 world production plateaued out, and our oil-driven economy crashed in 2008. the data is beyond question:
2004 72.5 Million barrels/day
2005 73.8
2006 73.5
2007 73.0
2008 73.7
2009 72.3 (production drop after recession)
2010 74.09
2011 74.06
Oil output has remained static for 7 years. Those figures show that everyone is pumping like mad to stand still, if there was any cheap oil left they wouldn’t be digging out the tarsands. It’s not in the Saudi’s interest to withhold vast quantities of oil, because if industrial economies collapse, they go back to camel trading and goat herding. The world economic system is oil driven, it’s faltering because the supply of oil is clearly at it’s limit. We’re at peak oil and we face a decline from now on.
Speculation is merely a reflection on that situation, it doesn’t alter reality. If there was any cheap oil left they wouldn’t be digging up the tarsands in Alberta. We are entering the final struggle for resources and face a future very different to our past. Oil has no alternatives and it won’t be a gentle decline; the fights on forecourts demonstrate our future, because our lives depend on oil in a literal sense. The battle for what’s left is going to get very nasty. http://www.yourmedievalfuture.com/
16:48 on 01/04/2012
I agree, we are running out of cheap oil. That, and the fact the world demand is growing is becoming problematic. I have heard it suggested that some of the changes being proposed for global warming have more do do with the reality that our oil based econmy is winding down, but you can't tell people that.
I do think there is some light at end of tunnel. Electric cars are way ,more effeiceint and electritcy can come from muliple sources. here in states, some vechicles are being switched to natural gas.I am of the opiion that the technology exiists to make this shift from fossil fuels a s painless as possible.
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NJP1
17:00 on 01/04/2012
I would agree with you, except that we can't eat electricity
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21:50 on 09/04/2012
A couple good graphs here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9091#comment-884891
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hearthammer
If left is right and right is wrong, decide!
09:44 on 01/04/2012
There is no fuel crisis nor high prices. There is a huge tax on fuel, that's the problem!

Maybe it's time for people to tell their MPs that they'll be out of a job next term unless they reduce fuel by 20p a litre?
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Laatab
All The Worlds A Stage
05:05 on 01/04/2012
We are too far down the road now for the sticking plasters you suggest. The supply of oil is in crisis and at some point it is going to bite. When it does it'll come quickly. The shelves in the supermarkets will empty in a day and soon after the lights will go out. Order will break down as roving gangs search out remaining food and fuel stocks. And so it'll be until the population drops to pre-industrial levels. Then you can start growing food locally again. If people listened to people such as yourself, maybe this scenario could be cushioned with a few years to prepare. But what are the chances of people listening when the powers that be and the media conspire to hide the facts.
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19:32 on 01/04/2012
It'll be like Mad Max. How exciting!
Reminds me of when the whale oil ran out. There was chaos then too... Oh no wait there wasn't. We found alternatives and that's what'll happen this time too.
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Laatab
All The Worlds A Stage
19:38 on 01/04/2012
Sincerely, I do hope your right.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
hazbro24
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro- HST
02:47 on 04/04/2012
Whale oil never ran out, it was just replaced by something better. And society wasn't dependent on whale oil-tractors and combines didn't run on it because we didn't have those machines nor the 7 billion people that they enabled.

There is no next thing to find in the earth. We've dug up everything there is to find, there are no more elements to shake loose from the periodic table.
23:05 on 30/03/2012
Utter nonsense. There is no fuel crisis. It is all fabricated and manipulated by governments in order to further their geo-political aims and distract the public. Try some serious thought and journalism for a change instead of this fluff.

Try some geopolitical research into oil/gas production and distribution via Georgia/Nigeria/Iran with maybe a review of government and corporate actions in these zones relative to future supplies and you might raise awareness.

Saving a few kWh here and there isn't going to help short term. Governements and corporations are prepared to expend thousands of barrels of oil and human lives in order to secure their cartels.
15:43 on 01/04/2012
Yeah and aliens shot JFK as well.
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Kevin Mcilroy
12:33 on 30/03/2012
How about significant incentives for companies to let staff work from home (and penalties for those that don't); it would slash commuting cost at a stroke; reduce the load on public transport; revitalise suburban/dormitory areas and greatly enhance people's quality of life
07:49 on 30/03/2012
Walking to work. It's a beautiful thing!
04:05 on 01/04/2012
Its not just one productive action it will be the combination of many and walking to work or cycling to the shop are just two of many.