Turkey has been propelled into a tailspin and it is increasingly difficult to see how it can recover. Ordinary Turkish citizens face economic, security, and political challenges akin to those faced by some of their Arab neighbours. This stems from their own Government's failed and failing authoritarian policies. Furthermore, Erdogan hangs over Turkey the prospect of a constitutional referendum to move towards a more presidential system. Given the management of the last election, full dictatorship is now alarmingly close.
So the John Major defence offers the PM four ways to square the immigration, reform, allies and defence trap that has forced him into bluster about his failure to control immigration numbers and silence about his success on reform. With statesmanship he may surprise his critics and win his renegotiation. It's his to lose.
EU migrants have consistently paid more into the system than they have taken out. Their net contribution for the past 10 years - that is the taxes they paid minus the services and benefits they received - nears £5billion. That is no small change, 'back-of-the-sofa'-type sum. It is serious money contributing to keep British citizens in the style of welfare and service provision to which they are accustomed. If all EU immigrants left tomorrow their departure would leave a gaping hole in Britain's public finances...
This edition of Panorama is merely a symptom of the wider discourse around immigration. A debate so toxic that facts are shouted down in a wave of popular fascism. But it also threatens our relationship with Europe and our right to free movement. On both fronts, we should all be worried about where this debate is heading in 2015.