Europe will not strongly recover in the course of 2014. It would require many reforms at national and European level, which are not (yet) feasible. For the moment, Europe will have to make do with a patchwork of stopgaps, which is adjusted gradually, in incremental steps.
Much like sporting events can be histrionically promoted as 'crunch matches', 'the day of reckoning' or similar, recent meetings of the world's central banks have often been given a similar billing. However, it's safe to say that the impact of these economic planning meetings lasts longer than any bangs and scrapes picked up in a 90 minute kick about.
Whereas in the last few years the US, UK and Japan central banks have been busy flushing the market with money, things have not developed quite the same way in the Eurozone, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is still struggling to define its own role.
2013 was the year of all-powerful central banks, fragile economic recovery, and financial market euphoria. 2014 will be all about politics: political economics, geopolitical developments, and electoral politics.
The strategic problem that is fundamental to the dilemma of the non-Austrian economic school is that they are saddled with fundamentally flawed dogma. The state's absurd obsession with a 'macro' economic solution. The Austrian school does not accept this, and rightly so. All economics are 'micro'.
Farage himself predicted an "earthquake" while other prominent right wingers envisage "the liberation from the European elite, the monster in Brussels". So are they correct? Their success would certainly send a shockwave across the continent but are we really about to find ourselves at the mercy of the most anti-EU, combatively euro-sceptic European Parliament to date? No.
2014 will be a crucial year for the EU. The European elections are going to take place in May and we certainly hope that they will attract more attention and interest than in the past.
A break-up of the eurozone may be where we are headed if spending cuts take precedence over debt defaults and if the financial crisis continues to be cynically portrayed as a morality play. What the continent needs is a debt jubilee and a halt to austerity. Oh, and some solidarity. Otherwise, a second Great Depression beckons.
A balanced view will allow us to be better at thinking about the crisis. After all if we only see our southern neighbours as burden, we are not only losing half the equation to solving the Eurozone crisis; we are also missing out on most of the intelligence.
Britpop's predictive powers A tumultuous storm followed the 2008 credit crisis. To calm it, the governments administered liquidity injections with th...
The fact that Germany is not as strong as we believe means that the country may not be able to lift Europe out of its economic woe. If this is really the case, we are pinning our high hope on the wrong leader. It therefore makes a lot more sense for us to come up with new ways to solve the Eurozone crisis...
Average euro zone inflation was a provisional 0.7% in October, much weaker than the ECB's official target of "close to but below 2%". It is not just the low level of inflation that has been a concern for the Bank, but the rapid decline in recent months: between July and October the rate fell by 0.9 percentage points, from 1.6% to 0.7%.
Amid the debt crisis and concomitant economic depression, the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) lost 91% of its value between its peak in late October 2007 ...
The most common question I get asked in my position as a currency strategist is; "why is the euro so strong?" Normally there are some rather more colourful turns of phrase included within that question, mainly as a result of the person losing money by betting against the single currency; a common occurrence in recent months.
The last week has brought news of dangerously low inflation in Germany, and we learnt that German retail sales had plunged in September, Eurozone unemployment edged up by 0.2% to 12.2%, and the Consumer Price Index across the Eurozone is estimated to have risen only 0.7% in the last year.
I was honoured recently to receive the Sheila McKechnie award for the campaigning work I've done with the Robin Hood Tax. Ironically, at exactly the same moment, dozens of financial journalists were frantically typing articles about how the tax was dead in Europe following a European announcement it could be illegal. ..