Predicting outcomes is something we have been doing in my business at Fear Group for 34 years, we do it to locate hot-spots in global economic activity as a background to future group investment. With this in mind I asked our in-house researchers to come up with their prediction for Thursday's General Election and here is the result...
No one really knows whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband will be the next British prime minister. And anyone who says they do is probably making it up. With that in mind, here are seven things everyone should understand about the campaign and election night.
Still undecided about where to make your mark on May 7th? Local politics has inevitably been eclipsed in the run up to Thursday by close scrutiny of t...
Within hours of the election result, we should have a clearer picture of whether the BBC will survive in its current form. With the current BBC Charter due to expire at the end of next year, the next government will barely have 18 months to consult on the terms of its renewal. It is perfectly possible, if results are only slightly worse for Labour and the Lib Dems than polls suggest, that an unholy alliance of Conservatives, Ulster Unionists from the DUP and a handful of Ukip MPs will see the BBC savaged to a point beyond repair. Its funding, remit, governance and possibly its very existence could be up for grabs.
David Cameron, Ed Miliband and all the other party leaders will be jostling for voters' final decisions over the coming week in the lead-up to 7 May but on social media, one of their key communications tools, I feel they've got it all wrong.
It is realistic to think we can have a different kind of economy and society. It is possible to create a fair and just arrangement in which no one need fear being unable to put food on the table or keep a roof over their head... It is profoundly unrealistic to think we can continue as we are.
There has been a lot of talk of UKIP recently. Are they going to take lots of seats from both Labour and the Conservatives in the upcoming election? Could UKIP form a coalition government leaving Nigel Farage as Deputy Prime Minister? Well don't worry...
This is the first General Election campaign I have lived through where I am at a loss who to vote for.
I asked the Ukip leader if he wanted those who held racist views to vote for his party. Eventually, he said no. When I pointed out a Yougov poll recorded 28% of Ukip supporters admitted to holding "racist opinions", he was understandably keener to rubbish the poll than stand by any assertion that nearly of third of his supporters should vote for some other party.
Not long now before Britain will be the proud owner of a lovely shiny, brand spanking new government. Or a slightly souped up version of a rather knackered and clapped out old one. Or, as appears far more likely, a cut and shut job made up by the welding together of the diametrically opposed ideologies of two, maybe even three competing parties.
We have four men, all vying for our vote, all trying to show they are caring and compassionate leaders. All scrambling around at the last minute promising us the world, or indeed, the world as they see it. Why are they allowed to keep tagging incentives onto their manifestos?
Above all we need a discourse that empowers people to the point where they feel they can act in, influence and own each election, rather than just watching from the side lines. Without these things, politics will continue to struggle to inspire the British public.
We are only looking like a country forced into muddied and muddled coalitions because none of our leaders is good enough for us to vote for them. And the one-that is can't, in any circumstance, win other than in coalition. Sturgeon is cleaning the u-bend. It should be whistle-clean by the time Boris and Dave step up.
This week I was joined in South Thanet, the seat where I'm standing for Labour against Nigel Farage, by documentary maker and actor Ross Kemp. Ross's self-assured brand of masculinity was the ideal tonic to the sly chauvinism of Ukip, and he was an unqualified hit with the people we spoke to. Next week he'll be writing to people in Thanet, urging them to support us on 7 May.
The Scottish independence referendum was proof that a positive campaign, engaging rather than side-lining young people, will inspire people of all ages to vote. The major political parties have forgotten this... But there is an alternative.
Whether or not you agree with his recent comments, that the survivors who risked all to escape Libya should be sent back, it's important that we all try to understand what drove people to take such risks. The simple answer is extreme poverty.