Nick Beecroft
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An Honours Graduate from Oxford University, Nick Beecroft has over 30 years of international trading experience within the financial industry, including senior Global Markets roles at Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Citibank. Nick was a member of the Bank of England's Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee.

Entries by Nick Beecroft

Bank of England - Confusion Reigns

(0) Comments | Posted 15 August 2014 | (18:08)

As I write, the likelihood of imminent rate rises in the UK still hangs in the balance, following the release of another strong set of employment figures and, shortly afterwards, a still surprisingly dovish Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report, (QIR). To quote Governor Carney's comment at the news conference...

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Are We Nearly There?

(0) Comments | Posted 4 August 2014 | (11:57)

The familiar plaintiff refrain often heard from bored children on a long car journey. It could also be very reasonably applied to the journey which markets and investors have made since we stood in the depths of despair in March 2009. The relevant destination to which the question refers today...

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Is Gold the Canary in the Coalmine?

(0) Comments | Posted 26 June 2014 | (16:23)

Anyone with the slightest exposure to markets is currently engaged in a rather nerve-wracking game of chicken, as they try and keep 'skin in the game', whilst at the same time living with a nagging fear that at any minute some asteroid may arrive to smash the market out of...

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Be Careful What You Wish For, Ukip

(2) Comments | Posted 11 June 2014 | (19:32)

Now that the EU Parliamentary elections are out of the way, UK psephologists will begin crawling all over the General Election, due next May. There seems to be little chance that UKIP will retain the 29% share of the vote they garnered in the EU elections; I suspect my Sussex...

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Currency Wars Are Heating Up

(0) Comments | Posted 10 June 2014 | (08:55)

The yawning gap between Europe's economic fortunes and those of the US and UK becomes ever wider.

Last Wednesday saw the release of US Vehicle Sales data for May-a very useful macro-indicator, and total sales were 16.7m, well ahead of the expected 16.1m, and the highest since February 2007....

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Why Are the Markets So Quiet?

(0) Comments | Posted 29 May 2014 | (17:33)

Implied volatility, as traded in the vast global FX market, has collapsed to levels not seen since 2007-just before the collapse of the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Fund and the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund which, (if we had but known it), fired the starting gun...

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The Next Two Weeks Could Shape The Year

(0) Comments | Posted 25 April 2014 | (15:27)

Within the next few days we are due to receive economic data releases that could represent an inflection point and shape financial markets over the next few months, and maybe for the rest of the year. In addition, the 'big four' central banks are all due to hold meetings in...

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Will the New Bank of England MPC Be More Hawkish?

(0) Comments | Posted 6 April 2014 | (14:29)

A few weeks ago I suggested that the first time we learn of dissent on the MPC over its monetary policy decision we will see a fairly major market reaction. We won't find out if there were any dissenters until the minutes of each meeting are released about two weeks...

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Is Chinese Debt the Great Financial Crisis - Part Two?

(0) Comments | Posted 13 March 2014 | (17:18)

The recent default on interest payments due on a bond issue by Shanghai Chairo Solar Energy Science and Technology is the latest development to strike fear into the hearts of those who see China and its debt mountains as the next source of financial Armageddon. Doomsters also point to excessive...

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The Russian Enigma Adds to Central Bank Dilemmas

(0) Comments | Posted 5 March 2014 | (17:32)

A month after the start of the second world war, Churchill made his famous comment during a radio broadcast -"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national...

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A Big Week for the Eurozone Deflation Story

(0) Comments | Posted 24 February 2014 | (17:34)

Friday 28th will bring what is currently the most important economic release of the month for the Eurozone - the advance estimate for February CPI. Whilst the Fed and the Bank of England flirt with forward guidance and fall in and out of love with the headline unemployment rate as...

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US Storms Are Fooling the Markets

(0) Comments | Posted 17 February 2014 | (14:13)

In my view, the dreadful ice and snow storms that have been battering the east of the United States are obscuring the real strength of the economic recovery and setting the markets up to provide great opportunities over the next few weeks.

Economists have been tearing their hair out trying...

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R.I.P. Forward Guidance Thresholds - Long Live Good, Old-Fashion Communication

(0) Comments | Posted 6 February 2014 | (11:51)

When it comes to the Fed and the Bank of England, I think it's going be 'déjà vu all over again'.

Let's take the Fed first. When is a threshold not a threshold? Answer - when it doesn't suit one's agenda.

With the unemployment rate plummeting towards the 6.5%...

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How Long Can the ECB Hold Out?

(0) Comments | Posted 12 December 2013 | (15:10)

Another day, another set of dismal Eurozone data points. On 12th Dec. we learned that Industrial Production across the region fell 1.1% in October-it is now down 15% from its pre-credit crisis level. We were also treated to inflation prints from France, Italy and Ireland; 0.7%, 0.7% and 0.3% year-on-year,...

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Stars Align for Osborne and Carney as the UK Stands Out

(0) Comments | Posted 3 December 2013 | (11:38)

If last week's markets were quiet and range-bound due to Thanksgiving celebrations and a paucity of frontline data, this week could hardly present a more different proposition. Yesterday saw a strong US Manufacturing ISM survey, and today the RBA decided to sit on its hands, but the committee was once...

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Bank of England Struggles as Forecasts Move More Than Credibility Demands

(2) Comments | Posted 19 November 2013 | (12:09)

Regular readers of this blog will know that I've always had a theoretical problem with forward guidance. Telling people that rates are going to stay lower for longer can have two undesirable consequences, ironically of a diametrically opposed nature. On the one hand, some people will think that if the...

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Take Your Hands Away From That Wallet - Things Are Gonna Be Cheaper

(0) Comments | Posted 11 November 2013 | (14:33)

No fewer than four Regional Fed Presidents are due to speak this week, plus Bernanke, and they represent a pretty wide spread of hawks, doves and centrists, so we should be able to watch their lips to get a better sense of whether the bond market was correct in its...

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Shocking Eurozone Figures Could Be a Turning Point

(0) Comments | Posted 1 November 2013 | (15:13)

The last week has brought news of dangerously low inflation in Germany, and we learnt that German retail sales had plunged in September, Eurozone unemployment edged up by 0.2% to 12.2%, and the Consumer Price Index across the Eurozone is estimated to have risen only 0.7% in the last year.

...
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ECB's Asset Quality Review Is a Work of Art - Minimalist Art

(0) Comments | Posted 24 October 2013 | (11:56)

Just another brick in the wall. In what is a potentially vital piece of the jigsaw in the project to keep the Euro afloat, the ECB had a mission: design a bank asset quality review that was just tough enough to gain credibility, but not too tough, for fear of...

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Did We Just See a Major Power Shift in the FX Markets?

(0) Comments | Posted 18 October 2013 | (16:54)

It's been a pretty quiet year in the major currency markets for professional investors. Euro vs the USD is the most actively traded currency pair in the 5 trillion USD a day market, and this year its range has been pretty muted, with a high on 1st February of 1.3711...

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