Nick Beecroft
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An Honours Graduate from Oxford University, Nick Beecroft has over 30 years of international trading experience within the financial industry, including senior Global Markets roles at Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Citibank. Nick was a member of the Bank of England's Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee.

Entries by Nick Beecroft

Will the New Bank of England MPC Be More Hawkish?

(0) Comments | Posted 6 April 2014 | (14:29)

A few weeks ago I suggested that the first time we learn of dissent on the MPC over its monetary policy decision we will see a fairly major market reaction. We won't find out if there were any dissenters until the minutes of each meeting are released about two weeks...

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Is Chinese Debt the Great Financial Crisis - Part Two?

(0) Comments | Posted 13 March 2014 | (17:18)

The recent default on interest payments due on a bond issue by Shanghai Chairo Solar Energy Science and Technology is the latest development to strike fear into the hearts of those who see China and its debt mountains as the next source of financial Armageddon. Doomsters also point to excessive...

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The Russian Enigma Adds to Central Bank Dilemmas

(0) Comments | Posted 5 March 2014 | (17:32)

A month after the start of the second world war, Churchill made his famous comment during a radio broadcast -"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national...

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A Big Week for the Eurozone Deflation Story

(0) Comments | Posted 24 February 2014 | (17:34)

Friday 28th will bring what is currently the most important economic release of the month for the Eurozone - the advance estimate for February CPI. Whilst the Fed and the Bank of England flirt with forward guidance and fall in and out of love with the headline unemployment rate as...

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US Storms Are Fooling the Markets

(0) Comments | Posted 17 February 2014 | (14:13)

In my view, the dreadful ice and snow storms that have been battering the east of the United States are obscuring the real strength of the economic recovery and setting the markets up to provide great opportunities over the next few weeks.

Economists have been tearing their hair out trying...

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R.I.P. Forward Guidance Thresholds - Long Live Good, Old-Fashion Communication

(0) Comments | Posted 6 February 2014 | (11:51)

When it comes to the Fed and the Bank of England, I think it's going be 'déjà vu all over again'.

Let's take the Fed first. When is a threshold not a threshold? Answer - when it doesn't suit one's agenda.

With the unemployment rate plummeting towards the 6.5%...

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How Long Can the ECB Hold Out?

(0) Comments | Posted 12 December 2013 | (15:10)

Another day, another set of dismal Eurozone data points. On 12th Dec. we learned that Industrial Production across the region fell 1.1% in October-it is now down 15% from its pre-credit crisis level. We were also treated to inflation prints from France, Italy and Ireland; 0.7%, 0.7% and 0.3% year-on-year,...

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Stars Align for Osborne and Carney as the UK Stands Out

(0) Comments | Posted 3 December 2013 | (11:38)

If last week's markets were quiet and range-bound due to Thanksgiving celebrations and a paucity of frontline data, this week could hardly present a more different proposition. Yesterday saw a strong US Manufacturing ISM survey, and today the RBA decided to sit on its hands, but the committee was once...

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Bank of England Struggles as Forecasts Move More Than Credibility Demands

(2) Comments | Posted 19 November 2013 | (12:09)

Regular readers of this blog will know that I've always had a theoretical problem with forward guidance. Telling people that rates are going to stay lower for longer can have two undesirable consequences, ironically of a diametrically opposed nature. On the one hand, some people will think that if the...

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Take Your Hands Away From That Wallet - Things Are Gonna Be Cheaper

(0) Comments | Posted 11 November 2013 | (14:33)

No fewer than four Regional Fed Presidents are due to speak this week, plus Bernanke, and they represent a pretty wide spread of hawks, doves and centrists, so we should be able to watch their lips to get a better sense of whether the bond market was correct in its...

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Shocking Eurozone Figures Could Be a Turning Point

(0) Comments | Posted 1 November 2013 | (15:13)

The last week has brought news of dangerously low inflation in Germany, and we learnt that German retail sales had plunged in September, Eurozone unemployment edged up by 0.2% to 12.2%, and the Consumer Price Index across the Eurozone is estimated to have risen only 0.7% in the last year.

...
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ECB's Asset Quality Review Is a Work of Art - Minimalist Art

(0) Comments | Posted 24 October 2013 | (11:56)

Just another brick in the wall. In what is a potentially vital piece of the jigsaw in the project to keep the Euro afloat, the ECB had a mission: design a bank asset quality review that was just tough enough to gain credibility, but not too tough, for fear of...

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Did We Just See a Major Power Shift in the FX Markets?

(0) Comments | Posted 18 October 2013 | (16:54)

It's been a pretty quiet year in the major currency markets for professional investors. Euro vs the USD is the most actively traded currency pair in the 5 trillion USD a day market, and this year its range has been pretty muted, with a high on 1st February of 1.3711...

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The Market Reaction to the Washington Impasse Is Chillingly Complacent

(0) Comments | Posted 8 October 2013 | (09:09)

The government of the world's largest economy is shut down and the current debt limit of $16.699 trillion was expended in May. Since then the US Treasury has only managed to keep the show on the road by using what it calls 'extraordinary measures', but even they will all have...

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2013 - It's All About Compromise

(0) Comments | Posted 27 September 2013 | (12:17)

2013 is looking increasingly like a year one can split into three very distinct thirds. The first third took us up to May, encompassing the Cypriot crisis and the inconclusive Italian election, sending risk markets into tail-spins and yields lower, and finishing when Ben Bernanke first mentioned the possibility that...

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Taper-Schmaper?

(0) Comments | Posted 13 September 2013 | (19:59)

So now we're all on tenterhooks until next Wednesday when we hear if the Fed has decided to reduce its monthly bond purchases. Traders, Treasurers, pension pot holders, emerging market Finance Ministers - we all feel a watershed is arriving.

However, this certainly will be no surprise. This is not...

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Are We Reaching Escape Velocity?

(0) Comments | Posted 15 August 2013 | (15:43)

Evidence seems to be mounting that global economic activity seems finally to be accelerating, maybe even creating a more classically rapid recovery, as opposed to the rather anaemic variety we have so far enjoyed.

Take the U.S., for instance, forty nine months after the start of the economic recovery, GDP...

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Forward Guidance - The Latest Fad

(0) Comments | Posted 8 August 2013 | (15:49)

What is the point of forward guidance? The Fed started the trend, even the ECB has abandoned its own 'we never pre-commit' mantra and gone for it, and now the Old Lady hasn't been able to resist the peer group pressure to join the party.

Personally, I just can't see...

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Bye Bye Taper?

(0) Comments | Posted 2 August 2013 | (17:22)

Wow. The July US employment report was downright lousy. The headline non-farm payrolls number was disappointing, at 162,000 vs expected 185,000, (with 26,000 downward revisions to June and May), and a large part of the fall in the unemployment rate 7.4% can be explained by a resumption of the fall...

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Has Quantitative Easing Become an Embarrassment?

(0) Comments | Posted 18 July 2013 | (20:58)

Fascinating times. The shifting sands of monetary policy fashion seem to have turned some major central banks against the very concept of Quantitative Easing, as fears that the efficacy (questionable anyway) of QE may not outweigh the risks, namely asset bubbles and a systemically dangerous mispricing of risk.

Nothing lasts...

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