Nick Beecroft
An Honours Graduate in Physics from Oxford University, Nick Beecroft is Founder and CEO of HP Economics, and has over 30 years of international trading experience within the financial industry, including senior Global Markets roles at Citibank, Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered Bank.

Entries by Nick Beecroft

2016 - A Goldilocks Year?

(0) Comments | Posted 12 January 2016 | (12:29)

A Goldilocks Year, not too hot, not too cold is our central scenario for 2016, and it would look something like this-
Global growth accelerates a little in 2016 to 3.5%, after 3.2% in 2015. Inflation in developed markets (DM) recovers back to 2% targets, but more quickly than...

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Twenty Years of Tory Rule?

(6) Comments | Posted 20 May 2015 | (14:30)

Three weeks before 7 May, Tory campaign gurus knew they were going to win, and win well. Micro-targeted canvassing of wavering 'switch' voters in key marginals and micro-analysis of polls held in these constituencies, masterminded by campaign manager Lynton Crosby, allied with multiple social media contact with these voters, led...

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The UK Budget Will Be Shamelessly Political

(1) Comments | Posted 13 March 2015 | (17:48)

With only 50 days between the Budget and the General Election, who can blame Chancellor Osborne for including a few judiciously designed bribes? He will be in a strong position to do so and to underline the Conservative Party's trump card-the strength of the UK's recovery.

The Office for Budget...

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Sterling May Be the New Swiss Franc

(0) Comments | Posted 14 January 2015 | (14:16)

This year's UK general election, on 7 May, seems at first sight to be the most open and unpredictable in a generation, at least that has become the accepted wisdom. There will be 650 seats up for grabs, on our gloriously simple 'first-past-the-post' basis; no proportional representation, no single transferable...

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Is This the 30s or the 70s?

(0) Comments | Posted 10 November 2014 | (15:55)

Premature rate hikes in the thirties caused a double-dip depression, following the 1929 stock-market crash and ensuing financial crisis, which probably played a part in precipitating World War 2. In contrast, in the seventies the Fed was constantly 'behind the curve', allowing inflation to display great volatility and to get...

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Market Loses Its Footing as It Climbs the Wall of Worry

(0) Comments | Posted 17 October 2014 | (16:04)

We recently reached that undefinable, (in advance), crunch point at which the sum of all fears just becomes too much to bear. Each of the clouds hanging over the markets might not have been, and indeed haven't been, by themselves enough-IMF world growth fears, deflation fears, Germany growth fears, French...

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The Yen Really Should Be Stronger

(0) Comments | Posted 23 September 2014 | (12:04)

If the Yen was still perceived as a safe-haven, as it has been for at least the last two decades, then USD/JPY really should be at least below 100, if not 95, but last week USD/JPY hit 109.46-its highest level since Aug. 2008, just before the Lehman bankruptcy triggered massive...

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This Is a Problem for Scotland, Not the UK

(23) Comments | Posted 10 September 2014 | (13:49)

If Scotland votes next week to dissolve a Union which has lasted just over three hundred years, then this will be very sad, in all sorts of senses but, for the main, the sadness for the UK will be mostly emotional, whilst for Scotland the implications will be massively detrimental...

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Bank of England - Confusion Reigns

(0) Comments | Posted 15 August 2014 | (19:08)

As I write, the likelihood of imminent rate rises in the UK still hangs in the balance, following the release of another strong set of employment figures and, shortly afterwards, a still surprisingly dovish Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report, (QIR). To quote Governor Carney's comment at the news conference...

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Are We Nearly There?

(0) Comments | Posted 4 August 2014 | (12:57)

The familiar plaintiff refrain often heard from bored children on a long car journey. It could also be very reasonably applied to the journey which markets and investors have made since we stood in the depths of despair in March 2009. The relevant destination to which the question refers today...

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Is Gold the Canary in the Coalmine?

(0) Comments | Posted 26 June 2014 | (17:23)

Anyone with the slightest exposure to markets is currently engaged in a rather nerve-wracking game of chicken, as they try and keep 'skin in the game', whilst at the same time living with a nagging fear that at any minute some asteroid may arrive to smash the market out of...

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Be Careful What You Wish For, Ukip

(2) Comments | Posted 11 June 2014 | (20:32)

Now that the EU Parliamentary elections are out of the way, UK psephologists will begin crawling all over the General Election, due next May. There seems to be little chance that UKIP will retain the 29% share of the vote they garnered in the EU elections; I suspect my Sussex...

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Currency Wars Are Heating Up

(0) Comments | Posted 10 June 2014 | (09:55)

The yawning gap between Europe's economic fortunes and those of the US and UK becomes ever wider.

Last Wednesday saw the release of US Vehicle Sales data for May-a very useful macro-indicator, and total sales were 16.7m, well ahead of the expected 16.1m, and the highest since February 2007....

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Why Are the Markets So Quiet?

(0) Comments | Posted 29 May 2014 | (18:33)

Implied volatility, as traded in the vast global FX market, has collapsed to levels not seen since 2007-just before the collapse of the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Fund and the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund which, (if we had but known it), fired the starting gun...

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The Next Two Weeks Could Shape The Year

(0) Comments | Posted 25 April 2014 | (16:27)

Within the next few days we are due to receive economic data releases that could represent an inflection point and shape financial markets over the next few months, and maybe for the rest of the year. In addition, the 'big four' central banks are all due to hold meetings in...

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Will the New Bank of England MPC Be More Hawkish?

(0) Comments | Posted 6 April 2014 | (15:29)

A few weeks ago I suggested that the first time we learn of dissent on the MPC over its monetary policy decision we will see a fairly major market reaction. We won't find out if there were any dissenters until the minutes of each meeting are released about two weeks...

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Is Chinese Debt the Great Financial Crisis - Part Two?

(0) Comments | Posted 13 March 2014 | (18:18)

The recent default on interest payments due on a bond issue by Shanghai Chairo Solar Energy Science and Technology is the latest development to strike fear into the hearts of those who see China and its debt mountains as the next source of financial Armageddon. Doomsters also point to excessive...

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The Russian Enigma Adds to Central Bank Dilemmas

(0) Comments | Posted 5 March 2014 | (18:32)

A month after the start of the second world war, Churchill made his famous comment during a radio broadcast -"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national...

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A Big Week for the Eurozone Deflation Story

(0) Comments | Posted 24 February 2014 | (18:34)

Friday 28th will bring what is currently the most important economic release of the month for the Eurozone - the advance estimate for February CPI. Whilst the Fed and the Bank of England flirt with forward guidance and fall in and out of love with the headline unemployment rate as...

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US Storms Are Fooling the Markets

(0) Comments | Posted 17 February 2014 | (15:13)

In my view, the dreadful ice and snow storms that have been battering the east of the United States are obscuring the real strength of the economic recovery and setting the markets up to provide great opportunities over the next few weeks.

Economists have been tearing their hair out trying...

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