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Peter Kellner

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Miliband Gets Conference Bounce

Posted: 05/10/2012 00:00

Ed Miliband's speech to Labour's conference has boosted his and the party's ratings.

YouGov's first survey since Miliband delivered his 'one nation' speech on Tuesday shows Labour's lead up to 14 points, matching its highest this year and following leads of 5 and 9 points in our two previous polls. The voting figures - Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, Lib Dem 10%, - are close to our six-month average of 43 / 33 / 9. On their own, our latest figures could reflect nothing more than sampling fluctuation. However, other data suggests that the bounce is real.

For example, Miliband has climbed to his highest figure when people are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. With 27%, he remains behind David Cameron, 31%. However, Cameron's 4-point lead is his lowest since Miliband became party leader, and compares with the 9-10 point lead that Cameron has generally enjoyed in recent months.

We also repeated a series of questions about Miliband that we asked last week. Here are the main findings:

As those figures show, Miliband remains in negative territory on each issue, but by significantly less than last week. And the fact that the biggest jump, of 12 points, relates to making it clear what he stands for suggests that his 'one nation' message has made an impact.

This is confirmed by responses to another question. We asked: 'Some people talk about building 'one nation', meaning a Britain in which there is a shared national purpose and people come together to tackle shared problems. Which, if any, of these political parties best fits the description of 'one nation' party?'

Twice as many people said Labour (28%) than Conservative (14%), even though 'one nation' has historically been a Conservative concept. It flows from Benjamin Disraeli's observation more than 160 years ago that Britons were divided into 'two nations, between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy'. Just 6% said Liberal Democrat. However, half the sample said either 'none of them' (39%) or don't know (13%). Labour may hold an advantage in the battle to claim the 'one nation' banner, but the war is far from over.

Overall, Miliband has done far better than last year, when there was no conference bounce. It remains to be seen whether his improved figures will persist. Conference bounces generally subside. But Miliband badly needed a good conference, and these results show he has reached his immediate goal.

See the full survey details and results here

 

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Ed Miliband's speech to Labour's conference has boosted his and the party's ratings. YouGov's first survey since Miliband delivered his 'one nation' speech on Tuesday shows Labour's lead up to 14 poi...
Ed Miliband's speech to Labour's conference has boosted his and the party's ratings. YouGov's first survey since Miliband delivered his 'one nation' speech on Tuesday shows Labour's lead up to 14 poi...
 
 
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09:31 PM on 10/06/2012
Ed bounces like a lead balloon........ well OK, leave out the ballon bit.......
11:24 PM on 10/05/2012
'One nation' is a forlorn hope thanks to the last Labour government.
04:05 PM on 10/06/2012
it certainly is. what is a worry is that some people actually believe milliband is competent. he played a large part along with Balls in creating the current problems. He avoids the truth all the time. For example he stated this week that he would not benefit from the tax cut to 45%. He earns £130,000, however his wife earns almost £250,000 a year she will be around £10,000 a year better off, yet he will get no benefit.
In July he launched an attack on Barclay`s Bank attacking it and Bob Diamond, with some justification. Yet 2 months later the mortgage on his home is moved from Clydesdale bank to Barclay`s! apparently he gets a better deal.
He states his family were not rich, yet the house his parents own is in a trust fund to avoid tax, they also had a second home for the weekends, like every good labour voter in the 70`s and 80`s.
his brother dodges tax at 45% by forming a company re his £500,000 earnings last year. Nothing from Ed about that.