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For the first time in the current parliament, more people would vote for Britain to stay in the European Union than to leave. The six-point margin is not large. Future polls may well tell a different story. But as David Cameron prepares to deliver his long-awaited speech on Britain and the EU, YouGov’s latest survey for the Sunday Times finds that the public mood is more pro-membership than for some years.
The shift in recent weeks has been marked. Here are the results of YouGov’s four most recent polls when we have asked: If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, how would you vote?
|
Remain in EU % |
Leave EU % |
Would not vote % |
Don't know |
|
| Nov 27-28, 2012 | 30 | 51 | 5 | 14 |
| Jan 2-3, 2013 | 31 | 46 | 6 | 16 |
| Jan 10-11, 2013 | 36 | 42 | 4 | 17 |
| Jan 17-18, 2013 | 40 | 34 | 5 | 20 |
In less than two months, a 21-point lead for leaving the EU has been replaced by a six-point lead for remaining a member. Some clues to what has happened come from the following breakdown by party.
Majority for staying in (+) or leaving (-) the EU
| By party supported in 2010 |
| All % | Con % | Lab % | LD % | |
| Nov 27-28 | -21 | -48 | -12 | +4 |
| Jan 17-18 | +6 | -23 | +31 | +31 |
| Change since Nov | +27 | +25 | +43 | +27 |
As those figures show, there has been a marked shift among the supporters of all three parties; but the biggest shift has been among those who voted Labour at the last election. (I have used past vote, rather than current vote, so that we are able to make a like-with-like comparison of the same groups of voters. Opinions by current party support can be found in our detailed tables, but some of the changes in attitude from one poll to the next may reflect the ebbs and flows of people moving to and from each party.)
It seems that some of the shift can be explained by the clear support for remaining in the EU expressed by Ed Miliband and Douglas Alexander, his shadow foreign secretary. Maybe the widely reported views of President Obama, an especial favourite with Labour voters, have also played a part.
That said, the shifts among Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters are also significant. Our results are especially comforting for the prime minister.
As always with sharp movements in public attitudes, we shall not know for some time whether we are seeing a blip or a trend. Britain and the EU has been the top domestic political news story for the past fortnight. Maybe, when it recedes from the headlines, views about the EU will revert to their normal ‘peacetime’ default position in which the centre of gravity lies somewhere between scepticism and hostility.
On the other hand, if a referendum IS held at some point in the next few years, then Europe will become a headline issue once again; and our latest results confirm the pattern of the past four decades – that when Europe lurks at the backs of peoples’ minds, we would rather keep our distance; but when the talk turns to a decision to withdraw, we start to contemplate the prospects of life outside the EU and fear that this might not be so attractive after all.
See the full survey details and results of the latest YouGov/Sunday Times survey here
Click here to view our Europe referendum tracker
Follow Peter Kellner on Twitter: www.twitter.com/@YouGov
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This could suggest either that the majority don't really feel Europe has any material effect, positive or negative, on their daily lives; or that they are just generally misinformed and can be swayed one way or the other by whatever is in the news that day.
Either way, I'm not overly optimistic that five years is enough time to educate a population that seems so apathetic. We're already struggling to get 70% turnout in a General election; and the turnouts in the AV and Police commissioner votes don't bode well.
To add further burden to the working classes, the cost of housing has risen exponentially as a consequence of the aforementioned influx. There is a whole generation of youth who have been disenfranchised as a result of these policies.
If the intention of augmenting the population was not to provide the rich and powerful with the means to exploit the public, then why were there no preparations made to accommodate the influx through extra housing and infrastructure expansion.
If such preparation had been made available then you would not be encountering such antipathy towards the EU.
If one takes into account the differing abilities of individuals for instance, and assigns them as A,B,C,D,E, etc, and you allow 5,000,000 Bs and Cs to enter your economy, it is inevitable that you will displace the Ds and Es etc. To dispute this consequence is to dispute the phenomenon of supply and demand, which would be a crass argument.
None of this social phenomena seems unintended, the disparity between rich and poor will increase if the EU and the political elite gets its way. The result will be that the working classes will once again be reduced to serfdom.
Immigrants were able to come here in large numbers because native Britons could no longer afford to take low paying jobs - because it wouldn't be enough to pay for their huge mortgages. They were simply filling an opening in the market.
If you want to reduce immigration, look to the cause of most of our problems - income inequality.
Does anyone really believe these polls anymore? They must be conducted in the foyer of the Guardian!
Those that aren't vulnerable to state media inculcation, realize that if we are to have a real democracy then these anti democratic EU processes have to be halted with an OUT VOTE!
Common Market Yes....EU No !
- YouGov polls consistently report much higher levels of pro-EU support than every other polling organisation.
- Peter Kellner, YouGov’s president, is a known Europhile as his numerous articles on this site proves.
- The poll was taken after a mass pro-EU propaganda campaign by the vested interests, eg Branson, Sorrell, Heseltine, Clarke, Mandelson, Barroso, Van Rompuy etc.
- The referendum is around 4 years away. By then the realities of the EU’s freedom of movement policies will have become even more obvious to the British people.
- Our exports to the EU by late 2017 will be much less significant in line with trends over the last 15 years.
- The economic disaster in the Eurozone will result years of stagnation, it may even have collapsed by 2017.
- Cameron referred to the OECD report which forecasts a 33% decline in the EU’s share of world output by 2030. This inevitable decline will already be evident by 2017.
I'm happy to be a eurosceptic, but although I wouldn't be unhappy to see us leave the EU, it wouldn't be my first choice. All I've wanted to see over the years, was negotiations by our governments that put us first, and also create a realistic EU, not the wet dream Federal United States of Europe that the dinner party set drool over.
I feel that my view is more representative of reality than the phoney political wars.
It's also the case that there are those on the left who dislike the EU who are turned off to the no vote mostly by UKIP being its champions.
I will be voting for us to leave and every person I meet I will convince to vote to leave by telling them the truth.
Pray to God the UK leaving would be a watershed which would bring this sick house of cards down.
They want one government, one State, one electronic money and total control.
To Hell with that.
The polls should show what the media says sadly, thats how nations are brainwashed and fascism gets a leg up.
The Single market has got nothing to do with being in the EU, nothing. Switzerland and Norway do fine outside the EU and are doing betetr than ever in truth.
France needs to sell things to the UK as much as we need to sell to them so there will be NO change in trade wetehr we are in the EU or not.
The EU needs our £18 billion a year as the UK and Germany are the only major nations who contribute. France, Spain and Italy take out of the EU.
It is about money and power, and nothing else.
Was that an Eastenders special?