100 Year Bonds Are Nothing More Than a Political Stunt

Chancellor George Osborne doesn't have much to cheer about In the run up to his third Budget this week.

Chancellor George Osborne doesn't have much to cheer about In the run up to his third Budget this week.

Borrowing has come in at £158bn higher than expected, the economy shrank in Q4 2011 and the Lib Dems are asserting themselves more strongly these days.

In the face of such problems Osborne has relied on three key indicators in support of his policies.

These are low mortgage rates, the UK's AAA credit rating from the agencies and record low borrowing rates.

He will try the same trick on Wednesday but it won't have the same potency as previously as all of them are now under threat.

Firstly, later this year millions will see mortgage rates as Halifax, RBS and Bank of Ireland announced increases to their SVRs.

A record low Bank of England base rate is no longer enough as banks see funding costs rise in response to the Eurozone crisis.

Secondly, Britain's prized AAA rating is under threat with Fitch joining Standard & Poors in putting us on negative watch.

It means the agencies believe there is a 50:50 chance of a downgrade in the next 18 months.

The only area of success he can rely on is record low borrowing rates with gilts hovering just above 2%.

Osborne believes this will save £20bn this parliament so expect to hear lots about his in his Budget speech.

Don't expect to hear how the Bank of England has bought hundreds of billions of pounds worth of gilts through its massive quantitative easing programme.

Certainly this artificial boost from ultra loose monetary policy has helped keep rates low. When QE finally finishes it is not unreasonable to expect a rise in gilts.

Nevertheless of Osborne's three key indicators it is borrowing rates that give him the most cheer so that is what he will want to focus on.

Hence the floating of 100 year binds last issued during the first world war to pay off debt.

The current maximum term is 50 years but Osborne argues Britain should take advantage of its current low borrowing rates.

He is even considering issuing bonds in perpetuity and paying a small interest rate.

Pension funds, which would be the main purchasers of such long term bonds, have dismissed the idea.

The National Association of Pension Funds claims the return from such bonds would be too small and there won't be enough demand.

It has branded the concept a political gimmick and it is absolutely right. Rather than introduce such bonds immediately Osborne will only announce a consultation.

With the average maturity of gilts already standing at a healthy 14 years don't be surprised if such a consultation finds no need or demand for such bonds.

The point of making such an announcement is not to actually enact it but to keep the Budget narrative focussed on those low borrowing rates.

Even a debate about 100 year bonds must concede rates are as low as they have been for centuries.

Osborne wasn't the public attention on this rather than rising mortgage rates and the UK's prized credit rating coming under increasing threat.

It is a clever manoeuvre from a very political chancellor and just as cynically smooth as anything Gordon Brown would have done in his time.

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