If Gandhi's chronology of "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win" is anything to go by, the Robin Hood Tax campaign is getting close to its goal.
In the past couple of weeks the full force of the financial sector lobby have mobilised against us: we've heard tales of doom from the Adam Smith Institute, apocalyptic predictions from the British Bankers Association and most worryingly, untruths and rumours from our own Chancellor of the Exchequer.
George Osborne's description of the tax on Monday as "economic suicide" is confirmation that after months of public ambiguity, the government has declared war on the Robin Hood Tax.
The coalition government (Lib Dems as well as Conservatives) has decided to side with the '1%' against the millions who have called for financial transaction taxes (FTTs) to raise money to tackle poverty at home and abroad and combat climate change.
He has also set himself against the thousand economists who support it, against Bill Gates and the European Commission who have shown it is possible and against Germany, who said just this week the UK should not be allowed to get away with their opposition to an FTT, as well as France, Spain, Argentina, Brazil and South Africa, who agreed at the G20 to try make finance pay its fair share.
Osborne's strategy is simple. By ignoring the positives and exaggerating potential negative impacts of this tax, he is creating a dense fog of bad economics and misinformation designed to scare away potential supporters.
Let's take the bad economics first. Osborne's insistence at last week's meeting of European finance ministers that the tax would be paid by pensioners is nonsense. The suggested rate of an FTT is so low, an average of just 0.05% or 50p in every £1,000, precisely to avoid damaging important longer term investments like pensions that tend to move money around rarely.
Instead it would target high frequency trading, often carried out not by humans at all, but by computer algorithms - The sort of trading described as "socially useless" by Lord Turner, Chair of the Financial Services Authority.
Osborne's claim that not a single bank would pay this tax is equally spurious. If that is the case, then why then have they been lobbying so hard against it? It is right that banks as intermediaries would not pay the tax, but those making the trades in the first place would.
So who are making the trades? Well, it's the banks and hedge funds, high net worth individuals and the upper echelons of the financial system a million miles away from the high street banking that you or I are used to. The IMF has said the incidence of an FTT would in all likelihood be highly progressive - being paid by the richest in society.
Now for the misinformation: the Chancellor argues that a 0.05% tax on banks and hedge funds would be bad for jobs and growth. He uses the European Commission's impact assessment to claim it would lead to a 1.76% drop in long-term growth across the EU, when in fact the document concludes that a drop of 0.53% is much more likely. Furthermore, this would be spread over 20 years making the impact minimal.
The EC's assessment also makes no calculation of the positive impact the revenue from an FTT could have. While potential job losses would be on city trading floors, beneficiaries would be teachers, nurses and other public servants.
Earlier this year the government increased VAT - the transaction tax we all pay in the real economy - by 2.5% to 20%.
VAT has been shown time and again to curtail growth and hit the poorest hardest. The almost unfathomable irony, pointed out by the IMF, is that whilst this increase affects us all, financial sector transactions remain VAT exempt.
The Chancellor is disingenuous to say banks would flee the country at the first whiff of an FTT.
The best evidence this is not the case is right under his nose. It's called the Stamp Duty on shares. Implemented unilaterally by a Conservative government in the 1980s, this FTT now raises more than £3 billion for the Exchequer each year without a significant loss of business from the UK.
What would be "economic suicide" as Osborne puts it, is leaving casino banking to return to business as usual storing up problems that are likely to trigger future crises.
The Bank of England found the cost of the last financial crisis to the UK economy over time will be at least £1.8 trillion and could be as much as £7.4 trillion. Even the conservative estimate is an astronomical figure equal to the UK's entire annual output.
It is ironic that the UK, a world leader on aid, is blocking a wider agreement for a Robin Hood Tax that would help other countries meet their obligations to the world's poorest.
The government should be congratulated for committing to spend 0.7% of GNI on international development in these troubled times. But there is a separate question as to why we are letting the financial sector off the hook, turning down billions in additional revenue that could help the world meet not just its aid commitments, but those on climate change whilst also protecting ordinary families, jobs and services here in the UK.
Ultimately George Osborne's position on the Robin Hood Tax comes down to politics.
For 18 months the government has tried to have it both ways, courting public opinion by supporting a global tax in the hope it would never happen. But the very real prospect of a European tax has forced him to choose.
By opting for the wishes of the 1% in the City ahead of the needs of the rest of us, he risks public anger and a place on the wrong side of history.
Follow Simon Chouffot on Twitter: www.twitter.com/@schouffot
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The FTT isn’t a tax on bankers, it’s a tax on pension plans.
by Lars Oxelheim, PhD, Lund Institute of Economic Research, Lund, Sweden (Professor and Chairman of the Swedish Network for European Studies in Economics and Business)
The fact is that the FTT will directly affect ordinary citizens in Europe. One area in particular is the impact on pensions of workers active today.
Just to give an indication, a 30-year-old worker, retiring at the age of 65, having a pension fund yielding 5 per cent per annum, with a turnover of the portfolio of 1.5 times a year, will see his pension reduced by 5 per cent due to the Tobin tax.
The FTT is presented as directed at the financial industry, but eventually the man in the street is the one to foot the bill.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0df299ba-15ef-11e1-b4b1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fHzgx4TV
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http://www.risk.net/life-and-pension-risk/news/2127518/eu-financial-transaction-tax-proposals-hit-pensions-hard-experts
Pension funds could soon have to bear the cost of a Europe-wide tax
“In fact, one of the conclusions by the International Monetary Fund in its report, A Fair and Substantial Contribution by the Financial Sector, was that the ‘real burden may fall largely on final consumers rather than, as often seems to be supposed, earnings in the financial sector.’
I suggest we only agree if the Germans agree a sausage tax , the Italians a pizza tax and the French a cheese tax - I think you wil find their enthuasism would evaporate very fast - taxes are a great idea if others are paying them.
The EU wants to grab this tax for itself. Even if some did end up in Africa it would be a case of the UK paying its 0.7% MDG contribution out of general taxation and picking up the tab for the rest of the EU (which is nowhere near there) out of the RHT. Chouffot and the Robin Hood Tax campaign are happy to let the UK pay twice. They won't ask other EU governments to meet their commitments – they know they would be laughed out the door. It is easier to try to take the money off the UK twice over.
He resorts to the silly Occupy rhetoric of the 1%. Most of us start our working lives in the bottom wealth decile and move up the deciles as we buy houses and accrue pensions. Transaction taxes hit the wealthy. Of course they do. Most of us aim to be wealthy and most of us will end up relatively wealthy – it is called saving for a pension. 39% of UK personal wealth is private pension funds (another 39% is people’s houses).
Robin Hood wants to pick UK savers’ and pensioners’ pockets to pay the EU’s bills.
Methinks ye doth apportion overly much prominence to mere spear bearers.
"the tax would be paid by pensioners"
But wouldst it constitute a rebate, when ranged against the ongoing decimation of their savings?
"who are making the trades"
Word on yonder (Wall) Street wouldst have it. That having beggared the 99%, these villains are now constrained to preying upon their own. Trading up or trading places? Wassail what doth not ail, the 1% of the 1%.
"Ultimately George Osborne's position on the Robin Hood Tax comes down to"
tyranny. As long as a referendum is refused, the serfs have no say. Look upon it as them having their tongues cut out, but without overburdening the NHS.
It seems the Bankers have forgotten the obscene amount of taxpayers money we "had" to give them after their gambling didnt pay off. How many jobs were, are and will be lost due to the ongoing repercussions of their gambling? I suspect many, many more than "might" lose their jobs should the Tobin tax be enforced.
Along with the vast majority of people, i see no problem whatsoever with the "gambling" arm of banking having this tiny "per transaction" tax imposed on them; after all, they will still be able to send out a £25 "letter", when those who already have lost their jobs get 10 pence overdrawn.
I can't help but notice that you've already spent the tax take from the Robin Hood Tax three times over - on poverty in the UK, poverty abroad and climate change - all of which are huge, diverse issues, all far beyond the ability of a Tobin tax to solve.
I think I would be more sympathetic to your argument if you didn't try to Hypothecate the money into causes that you (but possibly not the electorate) agree with, and then claim an impact far beyond what could actually be achieved.
http://www.financialtransactiontaxes.com/financial-transaction-tax-ftt-cascade-effect,html