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Sir Christopher Meyer

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The Return of the German Question

Posted: 23/11/11 23:00 GMT

It is now a commonplace that the inability of Eurozone decision-takers to halt the threat to the world economy from their benighted currency lies in a so far irreconcilable conflict between political and economic imperatives.

It is a bit like the age-old dispute between Israel and the Palestinians. We know exactly what has to be done to reach a solution. Its elements are before our very eyes. But the political will is just not there to make the deal.

The impasse has brought the return of the German Question, first posed early in the last century when politicians worried about accommodating within Europe a powerful, ambitious and newly created German state.

It took two world wars to thwart Germany's ideological and militarist ambitions. The big loser in western Europe from the rise of Germany has always been France - from the arrival of the Prussian army on the battlefield of Waterloo to ensure Napoleon's defeat in 1815, through the disaster of the Franco-Prussian War of 1871 and the blood-letting of the First World War, to the ultimate humiliation of defeat and occupation in the Second. No wonder the first priority of French foreign policy since 1945 has been Franco-German reconciliation.

The instrument of reconciliation has been since its foundation in 1958 what has today become the European Union. From the French perspective the Union entangles Germany in a web of multilateral and supranational obligations such that it can never "go rogue" and attack France again. This suits the Germans fine. I once heard Chancellor Kohl say that EU integration was the price Germany had to pay for being the dominant power in Europe. But, here is the rub. An integral part of that integration is the Euro, launched for largely political reasons. The only way that Kohl could get the German electorate to accept the loss of the trusted Deutschmark was by telling them that the Eurozone would be set up on the soundest of German fiscal principles. By definition this meant that all the Eurozone member-states would be able to abide by these principles.

But, this was a false prospectus and the German government knew it. It was rather, as a very senior member of the German Ministry of Finance told me at the time, a gamble, a leap of faith, not the mature reflection of economic and statistical evidence. The Germans were aware from the start that Italy was not fit for the Euro. But politics prevailed - how could you keep a founder-member of the old Common Market out of the Eurozone? They compounded the problem by letting in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The hope, a vain one as it turned out, was that adoption of the Euro would itself be the catalyst for the spread of good German economic practice.

Now the chickens have come home to roost in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Merkel's obsession with moral hazard at the expense of the German taxpayer is simply another way of telling the world that it's going to be Germany's way or no way. It is Kohl's old compact with the German electorate in 21st century form. The Euro is not going to be debauched by bailing out profligate states like Greece.

Only time will tell whether Merkel can hold firm to this position. Meanwhile, another ingredient is added to the toxic brew of economic and political calculation. It is almost a moral issue. What exactly is Germany's ambition? If you are Anatole Kaletsky in the Times this week, you believe that Germany is achieving economically what it failed to achieve militarily in 1939-45: a Europe that dances to the German tune. Even France, once seen as Germany's equal within the EU, is reduced to the status of junior partner as the yield on its bonds creeps upwards to almost twice that of Germany's.

Others talk of Germany as the reluctant European superpower, unwilling to take the responsibilities that come with this status, still psychologically scarred by the experience of the Third Reich. Either way the dilemma for Cameron is acute. How does he play the German Question? Should he create the third side in a Franco-British-German triangle? Should he ally himself with France in a ploy to balance Germany's power, redolent of the 19th century? Or should he side with the more powerful Germany, with whom, if the truth be told, our national interest is more closely aligned?

Britain has cards to play. In 1997, just before I became Ambassador to Germany, French officials told me that British adoption of the Euro was essential to balance German power. When I arrived in Germany to take up my job, German officials said exactly the same thing about the French. Little has changed since then as Franco-German tensions rise. Has Britain, under Cameron and Hague, the diplomatic skill to exploit this situation? The jury is out.

 
 
 

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It is now a commonplace that the inability of Eurozone decision-takers to halt the threat to the world economy from their benighted currency lies in a so far irreconcilable conflict between political ...
It is now a commonplace that the inability of Eurozone decision-takers to halt the threat to the world economy from their benighted currency lies in a so far irreconcilable conflict between political ...
 
 
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09:45 PM on 11/27/2011
So what does this explanation coming from Canada and the US in asking Merkel that the only way to stabilise the markets would be to introduce Eurobonds to the 17 main players in Europe,because of the joke in Germany selling their 10 year bonds last week with hardly any takers,yes Germany was shocked and even when her chief treasurer told her it was the only way forward the meeting had ended before it began.
Germany will have it no other way,it is the strongest economic country in the European Union and Merkel wants to keep it there at any cost.
Her idea of being fair is telling the other countries in the EU in the future is that if they go belly up then they can sort themselves out.
Germany is playing GOD and there can only be one.
12:05 PM on 11/27/2011
I quite agree.

Others might rush to condemn (erroneously) what they see as "war language" but the fact is that Germany since the dawn of the EU zone has been establishing a place for itself at the helm of a disastrous ideology which has tried to ride rough-shod over basic democratic principles. The commentators on here responding to this article would do well to go read up on the European Commission and look into what's even studied at British universities (as I did) as "the democratic deficit in the EU". The fact that it's a full academic pursuit now tells us everything.

But more specifically, Germany itself has not abided by the standards of fiscal responsibility and target setting which were established to ensure a responsible transition to the Euro; it preaches at the Greeks yet did everything in its power to protect German industry from competition in the Eurozone. Which is fine, really, but for heavens sakes be honest about it and admit the Euro was a lie.

All of which merely shows the infinite wisdom we had in the UK to not enter that ideologically-driven currency. A wisdom now much mourned in Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain and Ireland.

You can't use politics to drive economics; it's always been the other way round and always will be.
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OH72
08:27 PM on 11/27/2011
The fact that something is an academic pursuit says nothing about whether it exists or not - that question may itself be the topic of said academic pursuit.

But it is telling that you feel fit to lecture other nations as to how they should feel - the fact is that the decision to join the Euro is not mourned in the countries you mention at all. Quite to the contrary - the opposition within the public is far greater in Germany.

But we've come to expect that of people who accuse others of riding rough-shod over basic democratic principles - for that ilk, "democratic principles" mean "the freedom to agree with my opinion". The fact that you don't even grant Italy or Greece a right to their own opinion but feel qualified to lecture them as to what opinion they should hold speaks volumes.
08:45 PM on 11/27/2011
Luckily, in the United Kingdom expressing an opinion based on legitimate concerns backed by evidence is what is known as "freedom of speech".

Back care have I for the demise of the Italian Lira when Italy had been in greater debt than any nation in the western world for a decade before this current crisis?! The Greek government lied to the British, French and German governments about the scale of their debt on SEVENTEEN occasions yet you have the audacity to accuse me of "lecturing" them over the shocking corruption within the European Commission AND the cabinets of Italy and Greece!

Please - the Eurozone has been an absolutely disaster for the richest nations in the Union and British people, who work the longest hours in Europe in order to sustain one of the biggest economies on earth, are tired of bailing out governments that can't control their own fiscal responsibilities. Since the days of the Common Agricultural Policy Britain has been paying a fortune to Greece and the other southern nations and the money was squandered.

This isn't some divorced reality - those are my taxes, it's MY money. And I, along with the majority of British people, am tired of it being given to irresponsible liars who cheat their OWN people, never mind us!
08:46 PM on 11/27/2011
*what* care have I...&c
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OH72
11:42 AM on 11/26/2011
You would think that someone who has been ambassador to Germany would be less ignorant about Germany. But apparently, Sir Christopher prefers to foster prejudice and hatred instead of solid analysis. If he had done the latter, he would have seen that the firmest opposition to wavering in its current position within Germany does not come from Merkel's Christian Democrats, but from their coalition partner, the Free Democrats, a party that, would there be snap elections right now, would not be part of the Bundestag anymore. A party which hangs on to dear life to some of its core positions for the sheer fact that it IS fighting for survival. And precisely because that is the case, Merkel cannot afford to change her position either - because the moment the coalition breaks, she is gone, too. Without the Free Democrats, she has no chance of getting a majority.

So far from being the "German question" Sir Christopher would like to pose, far from being an issue of hegemony, it's a very banal issue of maneuvering an unstable government through a crisis. All that Europe is seeing now is what Germany has seen since the last election - a government stumbling behind after developments, reacting instead of acting proactively, and without a clear vision for the future.
11:59 AM on 11/27/2011
He's hardly "fostering prejudice and hatred". I've no idea why people who use the internet fail to use a bit of basic reason when responding to articles, but it seems to be the theme of the decade that the only response is an extreme response.

Germany has preached adherence to the fiscal standards of the Euro whilst bypassing those restraints themselves. They now preach at the Greeks and Italians while they themselves messed about with targets in order to protect German industry.

The whole thing is a con and the Franco-German pact on the Euro knows it.

It's not "prejudice" or "hatred" to say Germany has messed up Europe in order to secure its place in the EU as "all-seeing Eye".

A bit of calm is a good thing, instead of leaping to defamatory statements about a man's racial or political ideology of which you nor I know nothing.
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06:41 PM on 11/27/2011
OH72,

"less ignorant"? Sir Christopher's record of "tact" and "diplomacy" is greater than his ignorance. Indeed, it is frightening that the diplomatic corps consists of those of a questionable calibre.

As an aside, to constantly broaden the context of modern Germany to World War II is an insult to one's intelligence and the German people, and a reflection of the immaturity of the writer. Only the uninformed would consider "facile princeps" as valid.
11:42 AM on 11/25/2011
It’s disappointing how often the vocabulary of the Second World War appears in discourse on Germany’s role in the collapsing Euro. This is not to say that the militaristic trends of Germany’s history from it’s inception in 1871 until the end of the Nazi regime in 1945 should in any way be overlooked– it would be immoral and ignorant to do so – but how long is this legacy going to colour analysis of Germany in modern Europe? Germany has its own complex post-war history, and it was in large part the Western allies who facilitated West Germany rebuilding itself as a nation and economy after WWII (done so largely for the purposes of countering the Socialist threat on the fault line of the Cold War), alongside the fiscal policies of Adenauer and Erhard. We shouldn’t forget that Germany has been a generally peaceful nation over the last 65 years – refusing to send troops to Iraq for example, demonstrating its accordance with the principles of the UN, which were wantonly disregarded by Britain and America, and further, demonstrated it’s ability to resist aligning itself with a world power – unlike Britain. We should redress our assumptions about the German nation – which after all is a new country still building and coming to terms with its own identity since reunification in 1991. The past and those lost to it should be honoured and remembered, but they should not prejudice discourse around the present and what’s to come.
jhNY
Mercy.
11:59 PM on 11/24/2011
In my opinion, too little was paid out by Germany after the Second World War to those nations and populations that had come under the tender attentions of the wehrmacht. I understand, as Germany was divided, that West Germany could not be billed for the whole of the German debt, and that East Germany was in no position to pay economically, and that politically, they could not be billed and expected to pay, given their position behind the Iron Curtain. I further realize that the West's interest in a strong West Germany, as bulwark against the spread of communism, practically precluded a full accounting of the true costs of the war for that nation so long as the Cold War lasted.

But, given all the forced labor and killing and stripping of assets, including gold bullion, from Greece by the Germans, it galls to look at them all stink-eyed when viewing the troubles of their poorer southern neighbors today. As it galls to look at the Israeli-Palestinian intractability-- what a different world we might inhabit today had Germany seemed safe enough to leave whole after the war, and been made to pay deed-holders in the British protectorate of Palestine the market price for land to be inhabited by the Jews who became Israelis due to the awful realities of European history, arising out of "Germany's ideological and militarist ambitions."
12:10 PM on 11/27/2011
I lean very much toward the Palestinian plight due to a solid knowledge of what occurred in the Mandate when the Irgun set about murdering British soldiers who had just finished fighting a war against Nazism.

That said, you're right with regards to the idea of market price for land taken. Had that happened, the world might be a very different place. If I'm honest (and I'm assuming we have a very different view on Israel) I don't think the exodus to Palestine should ever have been permitted. Yet it did and it occurred at the financial destruction of a native group of people who should have been massively compensated - by the Germans. I don't go in for constant apologies and blood money for conflicts stretching back millennia (Who ever paid the Irish for what was done to them?) but in the case of the Holocaust and Palestine the Germans should have paid out.

Problem is we tried this before at Versailles and it resulted in Hitler.
jhNY
Mercy.
07:37 PM on 11/27/2011
Yes, I am aware of this truism re the Versailles Treaty, and can only respond by saying that, between the punitive hobbling of the post WWI German economy and the rigorously understudied idea that Germany owed and should have been paying more than it did after WWII, there might have been a middle ground, and there ought to have been. The West German nation as bulwark of anti-communism was not a response to German atrocities and aggression in the late war, but rather a way of papering them over for use in a new confrontation-- the Cold War.

The creation of the modern state of Israel was an existential necessity for Jews surviving the Holocaust--- the history of Europe's handling of 'the Jewish question'-- and not just what the nations under Axis control had done, made it so. The Zionist movement (if not the hope of religious Jews since the diaspora--'next year in Jerusalem') had already established in the minds of many Jews, the only proper location for their new nation-- all attendant difficulties and hostilities and dispossessions that this entailed notwithstanding. And given British fatigue and straitened circumstances after the war, I cannot see, even had it been deemed desirable to do so, that they might have stopped the mass migration of Jews to Palestine.

As for the Irish-- I believe they are still owed, but will never be repaid by GB.
11:05 AM on 11/24/2011
I'm with this person, Anatole Kaletsky, and its a disgrace we've allowed it to happen, too many died in two world wars and the British have seen their world position eroded by simply becoming a member, restrictions placed on British industry through EU membership has destroyed our manufacturing, alongside the incompetence of politicians failing to see the direction the UK was headed, inept political leaders like Margaret Thatcher, Major, Blair and Brown followed EU directives of closing our industrial centres in exchange for cheap foreign imports (EU coal etc) which now we have no ability to produce have all become expensive, even the present government have awarded contracts to Germany at the cost to our remaining facilities, (train carriages, Sheffield forgemasters)
In the meantime we have open doors for the European criminal and cheap labour fraternity. No doubt the pro EU mob will be along at any moment to attack my view with their "peace in Europe" drivel, well, we had already restored peace through the 2nd world war, we should have stood on the necks of the Germans rather than pave the way for the peaceful, fourth Reich, who now have our population of slaves they wanted in the first place.
03:40 PM on 11/24/2011
Quote: "restrictio­ns placed on British industry through EU membership has destroyed our manufactur­ing"

How it it that EU restriction have not destroyed Germany's manufacturing. Are there special regulations which apply only to the UK?

Quote: "in exchange for cheap foreign imports (EU coal etc)"

Don't you ever check facts?

"In 2005, taking coking coal, steam coal, and the small amount of anthracite together, 45 per cent of coal imports came from Russia, 29 per cent from South Africa, 10 per cent from Australia, 7 per cent from Colombia, 3 per cent from the USA and 2 per cent from Canada.

Sources
Coal imports data are provided to DTI by HM Revenue and Customs"

Not a single member of the EU in there.

Quote: "we had already restored peace through the 2nd world war"

"We"? You mean the Americans! As for going to war the UK only did that because of a guarantee to defend Poland. The UK failed to do that and then sold it down the river to the USSR.
08:48 PM on 11/24/2011
How it it that EU restrictio­n have not destroyed Germany's manufactur­ing. Are there special regulation­s which apply only to the UK?

No, EU wide, but we couldn't comply with regulation due to outdated gear and no investment after the war unlike Germany whose factories were rebuilt and equipped, their rules and our government lack of foresight put the UK out of business.

Don't you ever check facts?

I go back a lot further than 05, coal was shipped through poland during the miners strike, whether russian or not we had enough and still have of our own but were sold down the river to cheap imports, and no need to mention strikes, the unions were right then just as they are now, jobs are gone for good.

and no I don't mean the Americans, I mean we, allied forces. And whether I'm right or not I'll not be voting for any party which supports the EU dream, courtesy A. Merkel
I put the peace in EU just for you pal, we don't need unification to have peace, just watch the peace fall apart as the pigs go under obeying Merkels puppets austerity packages in the save the euro campaign.
12:16 PM on 11/27/2011
Sorry, but your claim that America won the war gets a little tiresome after 60 years. The Russians obliterated the Nazis in the East and lost over 20 million men doing so. The overwhelming economic expenditure by the German war machine by 42 was defense in the west, expansion in the east; America's contribution was vital and it is much appreciated, but Britain fought that western war alone for two years before the US bothered to enter the fray.

The Russians won the war. And the simple fact of their having taken all of eastern Europe proves it categorically. The US got a market for its produce, the Russians got about 11 new countries.

The irony of what you say, of course, is that at least Britain honours its treaties. But what a disgraceful thing to do to the memory of those who died, to play games of oneupmanship with the dead...amazing.
07:49 PM on 11/24/2011
No one in Germany wishes a Fourth Reich. As a German I am really disappointed how many Europeans think about us, nearly 70 years after the war. Best wishes to you, our British friends, Daniel P.S. If there is a reason to argue... We should not make war. Let us have a penalty shootout.
08:09 PM on 11/24/2011
Quote: "As a German I am really disappoint­ed how many Europeans think about us"

It certainly is a British obsession.

Actually I believe it is partly envy because of how badly the UK has performed since WW2 despite receiving twice the amount of Marshall Aid from the USA and suffering a fraction of German losses. Even with the cost of reunification, Germany's economy is more soundly based than the UK's..

I thought you Germans were more concerned with your rivalry with the Dutch when it comes to football!
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07:00 PM on 11/27/2011
Daniel,

As an Englishman, I can assure you we don't all think of the German people in that regard. Some of us have a basic intelligence. Best wishes my German friend.
10:48 AM on 11/24/2011
I agree with most that is written in your article,but to become a superpower in Europe you have to have financial stability,as of yesterdays sale of German bonds and the expectancy that they would make was an utter and complete farce,even the markets had a laugh at what they made,so is Germany on its way to meet France who is slowly reaching its threshold limit,I think so,with the world looking on who in their right mind is going to invest or buy European debt,I have said before this is a small fix as to the bailing out of European countries now the question is how can they afford to bailout Italy,(answer they cannot)they do not have the funds and as France and Germany have given the largest loans to Italy,if Italy folds then both France and Germany fold.The articles written in the German press are all coming together saying one thing,the German taxpayer has had enough.
Not looking to good for Merkel and Sarkozy at the moment so UK get out while you can.