Your smart money might have predicted that Obama should be nowhere near likely to secure a second term in office. (Unless, of course, the local turf accountants had realised that when Reagan was re-elected it was - as with Obama today - during a sustained period of rising employment). And yet, over the past three years, election after election across the developed world has seen incumbent premiers voted out of office in the wake of the global economic crisis. The fact that Obama has bucked this trend is testament to his - and the team behind him's - ability to persuade the electorate of his economic credentials.
Mark my words the 2012 Presidential Election is all going to come down to Ohio. Other swing states like Florida, Virginia and Colorado are going to be important but looking at the electoral map, all roads lead to the buckeye state and its 18 Electoral College votes. The candidates know it and Ohio knows it too.